Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Inflation began to ascend to its twin peak in July, despite failing to attain the target in between. Energy utility prices belatedly increased, but only add ~8bps to the y-o-y.</li>
<li>The gas futures curve is back around its peak. Premature hope for the supply shock’s end helps contain October’s rise, postponing the peak pressure to January.</li>
<li>Delayed pass-through of energy costs, food prices, and airfares should drive this peak much higher than most economists assume, pushing the BoE to hike once begrudgingly.</li>
</ul>


Inflation began to ascend to its twin peak in July, despite failing to attain the target in between. Energy utility prices belatedly increased, but only add ~8bps to the y-o-y.
The gas futures curve is back around its peak. Premature hope for the supply shock’s end helps contain October’s rise, postponing the peak pressure to January.
Delayed pass-through of energy costs, food prices, and airfares should drive this peak much higher than most economists assume, pushing the BoE to hike once begrudgingly.


UK: Ascending Inflation’s Twin Peak