Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Q2's flat end for the labour market might be exaggerated by imputation after the ONS forgot to appoint anyone to pick up the phone for the labour force survey.</li>
<li>Underemployment’s decline corroborates the labour market’s trend of tightening so far in 2026, despite low vacancies, as both supply and demand are structurally struggling.</li>
<li>Divergent pay growth measures have slowed by about 0.5pp on the year but remain excessive, near 4%. We still expect the BoE to hike once, failing to break the problem.</li>
</ul>


Q2's flat end for the labour market might be exaggerated by imputation after the ONS forgot to appoint anyone to pick up the phone for the labour force survey.
Underemployment’s decline corroborates the labour market’s trend of tightening so far in 2026, despite low vacancies, as both supply and demand are structurally struggling.
Divergent pay growth measures have slowed by about 0.5pp on the year but remain excessive, near 4%. We still expect the BoE to hike once, failing to break the problem.


UK: Forgotten Excesses