Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>A surprisingly strong end to Q2 for GDP yields 1.1% growth so far in 2026. A 33bp unemployment rate fall and a 6-8% credit growth trend make activity cyclically strong.</li>
<li>Residual seasonality does not explain all of GDP’s strength, which goes beyond the norm of recent years. The non-seasonally adjusted data also signal unusual strength.</li>
<li>The signal seen through multiple lenses across H1 is of activity growth beyond potential, implying loose policy. The BoE assumes policy is tight and seems set to repeat mistakes.</li>
</ul>


A surprisingly strong end to Q2 for GDP yields 1.1% growth so far in 2026. A 33bp unemployment rate fall and a 6-8% credit growth trend make activity cyclically strong.
Residual seasonality does not explain all of GDP’s strength, which goes beyond the norm of recent years. The non-seasonally adjusted data also signal unusual strength.
The signal seen through multiple lenses across H1 is of activity growth beyond potential, implying loose policy. The BoE assumes policy is tight and seems set to repeat mistakes.


UK: H1 Signals Stimulative Setting