APAC Capital Markets, Guzzler Chronicles

Anshul Trivedi

APAC Capital Markets

Guzzler Chronicles

Why "The Guzzler Chronicles"? This note sets out my current state of mind, and that view rests on several conditions: where yields sit, which way inflation is moving, how concentrated earnings growth is, and how stretched the charts are. Those conditions will change as the data and my analysis change, and my view will change with them. This is the first instalment of a series. Later notes will go deeper into individual topics raised here and will refer back to this one as the baseline.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Gold: GLD/SPY is +0.35 SD from its 5-year mean, about 31% below the February high and is almost back to mean. </li>
<li>Beta is "off the charts": SPHB/SPLV is +2.6 SD on the 5-year view, above the +2 SD band and about 3% below the 2 Oct high. </li>
<li>Central banks remain steady buyers: the World Gold Council expects about 850t in 2026, close to 2025's ~863t</li>
</ul>


Gold: GLD/SPY is +0.35 SD from its 5-year mean, about 31% below the February high and is almost back to mean. 
Beta is "off the charts": SPHB/SPLV is +2.6 SD on the 5-year view, above the +2 SD band and about 3% below the 2 Oct high. 
Central banks remain steady buyers: the World Gold Council expects about 850t in 2026, close to 2025's ~863t


Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Yields above 5%, an AI-only earnings story, and the CPI print that decides November?</li>
<li>October and November 2026 are probably “As Good As It Gets”.  Pushing higher requires exceptional, unlikely growth. Consequently, any disappointing results or unexpected shocks could trigger a sharp sell-off.</li>
<li>Bottom-Up, the AI complex accounts for more than half of expected earnings growth. The leaders are technically stretched. I would use any results-driven rally to recaliberate, not to chase</li>
</ul>


Yields above 5%, an AI-only earnings story, and the CPI print that decides November?
October and November 2026 are probably “As Good As It Gets”.  Pushing higher requires exceptional, unlikely growth. Consequently, any disappointing results or unexpected shocks could trigger a sharp sell-off.
Bottom-Up, the AI complex accounts for more than half of expected earnings growth. The leaders are technically stretched. I would use any results-driven rally to recaliberate, not to chase


The Guzzler Chronicles: As Good As It Gets

Why "The Guzzler Chronicles"?
This note sets out my current state of mind, and that view rests on several conditions: where yields sit, which way inflation is moving, how concentrated earnings growth is, and how stretched the charts are. 
Those conditions will change as the data and my analysis change, and my view will change with them. This is the first instalment of a series. 
Later notes will go deeper into individual topics raised here and will refer back to this one as the baseline.

Anshul Trivedi
APAC Capital Markets
• Guzzler Chronicles

Guzzler Chronicles: Go for Gold?

Oct 14th=the inflation call, and inflation drives risk right now. Gold is back to mean vs SPX with light positioning and offers good entry levels.

Guzzler Chronicles

The Guzzler Chronicles: As Good As It Gets

Markets = As Good As It Gets. When conditions are already this good, the rate of change needs to be exceptional for markets to push higher....

Guzzler Chronicles