Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Kioxia Holdings Corporation manufactures semiconductor memory products. The Company develops, produces, and sells flash memory cards, solid state drives, secure digital memory cards, and other products. Kioxia Holdings also operates group management strategy formulation and management.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kioxia-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29243:1" rel="noopener">Kioxia Holdings (285A JP)</a> sits at the intersection of some interesting near- and mid-term flow dynamics. Index flow, pre-IPO selling, and even some buyback flow. </li>
<li>In this insight, we measure what is announced, what is unannounced, what is likely, and what is possible. </li>
<li>And we also look at cashflows. Kioxia trades at an EV which will earn itself out in EBIT form by June 2028. Net Profit by Mar-2030.</li>
</ul>



Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) sits at the intersection of some interesting near- and mid-term flow dynamics. Index flow, pre-IPO selling, and even some buyback flow. 
In this insight, we measure what is announced, what is unannounced, what is likely, and what is possible. 
And we also look at cashflows. Kioxia trades at an EV which will earn itself out in EBIT form by June 2028. Net Profit by Mar-2030.


Kioxia (285A JP) - Interesting Demand/Supply Dynamics Near-Term and Over Time

Index Rebalance

SQUARE ENIX HOLDINGS CO., LTD. develops and sells entertainment software for home video game consoles including Dragon Quest and Final Fantasy series. The Company also publishes books such as informational guide books for its game software, and comic magazines and books.  Additionally, Square Enix sells character goods and stationery items from its software products.

<ul>
<li>The Nikkei 225 Rebal for The Next Rebal is, by the nature of its algorithm, basically 93.3% decided for the DELETEs when the previous rebal is announced. </li>
<li>The decision on the ADDs is somewhere between 60-80% complete at that time, dependent on future frothy volume of "young" stocks.  </li>
<li>The parameters of the new Info &amp; Comms classification labels have been applied to a number of Nikkei indices. Still 3 IN, 3 OUT for March 2027.</li>
</ul>


The Nikkei 225 Rebal for The Next Rebal is, by the nature of its algorithm, basically 93.3% decided for the DELETEs when the previous rebal is announced. 
The decision on the ADDs is somewhere between 60-80% complete at that time, dependent on future frothy volume of "young" stocks.  
The parameters of the new Info &amp; Comms classification labels have been applied to a number of Nikkei indices. Still 3 IN, 3 OUT for March 2027.


[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Mar27 Rebal; 3 Tech DELETEs, 2 Info & Comms ADDs, One Consumer Goods

Kakaku.com, Inc provides price comparison services and products information through its website.  The Company also provides Internet advertising services.

<ul>
<li>EQT has, for the second time in a row and the third time in the cycle, raised its Tender Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakaku-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7408:1" rel="noopener">Kakaku.com Inc (2371 JP)</a> by a whopping ¥1/share. </li>
<li>On 10 Sep 2026, EQT raised to ¥3,680. Then extended. Then raised to ¥3,681. Two weeks later, it's ¥3,682. This one expires 7 weeks after the price went to ¥3,680.  </li>
<li>Bain is still sitting at ¥3,720 if KDDI agrees. The market is higher. EQT is clearly exasperated that the market isn't listening to reason. </li>
</ul>


EQT has, for the second time in a row and the third time in the cycle, raised its Tender Offer for Kakaku.com Inc (2371 JP) by a whopping ¥1/share. 
On 10 Sep 2026, EQT raised to ¥3,680. Then extended. Then raised to ¥3,681. Two weeks later, it's ¥3,682. This one expires 7 weeks after the price went to ¥3,680.  
Bain is still sitting at ¥3,720 if KDDI agrees. The market is higher. EQT is clearly exasperated that the market isn't listening to reason. 


[Japan M&A] EQT Raises by ¥1 (+0.0272%) AGAIN. EQT Is STILL Upset with Bain and the Market

RISO KYOIKU CO., LTD. operates cram schools (Juku) and provides academic tutoring and exam preparation on a one-on-one basis.  The Company's classes are primarily for elementary, junior, and high school students.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hulic-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:388:1" rel="noopener">Hulic Co Ltd (3003 JP)</a> formed a Business+Capital Alliance with prep/cram/etc school operator <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/riso-kyoiku-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20848:1" rel="noopener">Riso Kyoiku (4714 JP)</a> in 2020. They bought 20% by 2021. Then went to 51% in 2024.</li>
<li>Now they want the rest. This is utterly unsurprising. And will be easy. Nobody else really wants this and Hulic controls it already. </li>
<li>This is fair enough as a price in my opinion. It is easy, small, illiquid, and roughly meaningless, except for one small quirk.</li>
</ul>



Hulic Co Ltd (3003 JP) formed a Business+Capital Alliance with prep/cram/etc school operator Riso Kyoiku (4714 JP) in 2020. They bought 20% by 2021. Then went to 51% in 2024.
Now they want the rest. This is utterly unsurprising. And will be easy. Nobody else really wants this and Hulic controls it already. 
This is fair enough as a price in my opinion. It is easy, small, illiquid, and roughly meaningless, except for one small quirk.


[Japan M&A] Hulic Takes Out Riso Kyoiku at ¥295/Share - Small, Unsurprising, Fair Enough, One Quirk.

TAIYO HOLDINGS CO., LTD. manufactures and sells resist inks for printed circuit boards.  The Company markets the products overseas through its sales and manufacturing subsidiaries in US, Taiwan, Korea, Singapore, and China.

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiyo-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15154:1" rel="noopener">Taiyo Holdings (4626 JP)</a> tender offer was expected to start around now. It is delayed because "necessary procedures and actions" under Chinese antitrust and Japan Investment Approval remain incomplete.</li>
<li>The latter is a <em>trifle</em> concerning, but I expect this gets done. Earnings will be better than originally guided and in the management forecast underpinning the FAs' valuations. </li>
<li>HOWEVER, they'd have to be a LOT better to trigger a re-rate. I don't think they get there but passive is big enough to make traders Oliver Twisty.</li>
</ul>


The Taiyo Holdings (4626 JP) tender offer was expected to start around now. It is delayed because "necessary procedures and actions" under Chinese antitrust and Japan Investment Approval remain incomplete.
The latter is a trifle concerning, but I expect this gets done. Earnings will be better than originally guided and in the management forecast underpinning the FAs' valuations. 
HOWEVER, they'd have to be a LOT better to trigger a re-rate. I don't think they get there but passive is big enough to make traders Oliver Twisty.


[Japan M&A] Taiyo Holdings (4626 JP) - A Last Gasp of Likely Fruitless Optionality Remains

HK Type 4 license through Ballingal Investment Advisors Ltd. ("BIA" or "BIAL")

BACKGROUND
I have 20+yrs experience in Asia doing alternative strategies (i.e. non-delta1 non long-only) in fixed income, equity derivatives, and activist/catalyst/event-driven and long-short equity strategies with most of that time spent managing money. 

4 years in fixed income macro, 8 years running internal hedge fund and 4yrs investment banking at Citi in Japan, 3 years running an Asia multi-strat portfolio at a hedge fund, 4+yrs as an independent special situations analyst.

Travis Lundy
Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events
• Quiddity Advisors

Kioxia (285A JP) - Interesting Demand/Supply Dynamics Near-Term and Over Time

Kioxia was Japan's largest market cap in June. The stock is down 65% since then. There are large index flows in the next 6wks, and buyback vs...

Travis Lundy

[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Mar27 Rebal; 3 Tech DELETEs, 2 Info & Comms ADDs, One Consumer Goods

After the updates to the Nikkei 225, Nikkei 500, and JPX Nikkei 400 classifications, we have a better idea of what is "Info & Comms" and what...

Travis Lundy

[Japan M&A] EQT Raises by ¥1 (+0.0272%) AGAIN. EQT Is STILL Upset with Bain and the Market

EQT has again raised by a single ¥1 tick to counter a bid which is 38 ticks higher and a market price 138 ticks higher. EQT is upset with Bain and...

Travis Lundy

[Japan M&A] Taiyo Holdings (4626 JP) - A Last Gasp of Likely Fruitless Optionality Remains

Traders are hoping for more on Taiyo Holdings. It is probably fruitless but there are reasons why people might hope. But that is probably all it is...

Travis Lundy

Kioxia (285A JP) - Interesting Demand/Supply Dynamics Near-Term and Over Time

Kioxia was Japan's largest market cap in June. The stock is down 65% since then. There are large index flows in the next 6wks, and buyback vs...

Travis Lundy

[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Mar27 Rebal; 3 Tech DELETEs, 2 Info & Comms ADDs, One Consumer Goods

After the updates to the Nikkei 225, Nikkei 500, and JPX Nikkei 400 classifications, we have a better idea of what is "Info & Comms" and what...

Travis Lundy

[Japan M&A] EQT Raises by ¥1 (+0.0272%) AGAIN. EQT Is STILL Upset with Bain and the Market

EQT has again raised by a single ¥1 tick to counter a bid which is 38 ticks higher and a market price 138 ticks higher. EQT is upset with Bain and...

Travis Lundy

[Japan M&A] Hulic Takes Out Riso Kyoiku at ¥295/Share - Small, Unsurprising, Fair Enough, One Quirk.

Hulic is taking out the rest of Riso Kyoiku minorities. This was just a matter of time. They'd been heading in that direction. This is an easy...

Travis Lundy

[Japan M&A] Taiyo Holdings (4626 JP) - A Last Gasp of Likely Fruitless Optionality Remains

Traders are hoping for more on Taiyo Holdings. It is probably fruitless but there are reasons why people might hope. But that is probably all it is...

Travis Lundy