Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India, Yellowstone Equity

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India

Creating Wealth through Alpha and Compounding

Yellowstone Equity

Providing unbiased and independent research on Indian equities to global institutions and individual investors


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Regulatory Disclosure: 
Note that Ankit Agrawal (Proprietor of Yellowstone Equity) is a SEBI registered Research Analyst (Registration No.: INH000007216). Registration granted by SEBI and certification from NISM in no way guarantee performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors. Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing.

Research Analyst Contact Details:
Address: A-412, Shilp Aaron, Sindhu Bhavan Road, Ahmedabad, Gujarat - 380059
Email: services@yellowstoneequity.com
Mobile: +91-7575817289

Compliance/Grievance Officer:
Name: Ankit Agrawal
Email: services@yellowstoneequity.com
Mobile: +91-7575817289
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Equity Bottom-Up

Bajaj Finance is an Indian deposit-taking non-banking financial company (NBFC) that offers a diversified portfolio of financial products and services. These include consumer loans, SME and commercial lending, rural lending, fixed deposits, and various investment and insurance products. The company is headquartered in Pune, India, and was founded on March 25, 1987.

<ul>
<li>BAF reported a strong Q1FY27 and gave an upbeat outlook for FY27. AUM grew 24% YoY and PAT grew 28% YoY. Number of new loans grew 20% YoY.</li>
<li>In Q1FY27, BAF added 194 Gold Loan branches. It now has 1701 Gold loan and 447 MFI branches which by end of FY27 will grow to 2,700+ and 520+, respectively.</li>
<li>BAF is targeting that FY28 onwards it delivers INR100,000cr of loan volume through FINAI and digital transformation, enabling it to become a pull business from being a push business.</li>
</ul>


BAF reported a strong Q1FY27 and gave an upbeat outlook for FY27. AUM grew 24% YoY and PAT grew 28% YoY. Number of new loans grew 20% YoY.
In Q1FY27, BAF added 194 Gold Loan branches. It now has 1701 Gold loan and 447 MFI branches which by end of FY27 will grow to 2,700+ and 520+, respectively.
BAF is targeting that FY28 onwards it delivers INR100,000cr of loan volume through FINAI and digital transformation, enabling it to become a pull business from being a push business.


Bajaj Finance (BAF): Bullish Outlook for FY27

Smartkarma AI Primers, Smartkarma

αSK Primers

Smartkarma AI Primers

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

Funding Societies Pte Ltd / Equity Bottom-Up

Funding Societies Pte. Ltd. is a SME digital financing platform. The Company provides business financing to small and medium sized enterprises, which is funded by individual and institutional investors. Funding Societies serves clients in Southeast Asia.

<ul>
 <li>
Regional SME Digital Financing Leadership: <a href="https://smartkarma.com/entities/funding-societies-pte-ltd">Funding Societies Pte Ltd</a> (operating as Modalku in Indonesia) represents Southeast Asia's largest unified digital financing and payments platform dedicated to micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs). Across its footprint in Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam, the group has originated more than S$7.09 billion (US$5.2+ billion) across 5.27 million transactions while sustaining disciplined underwriting indicated by a historical platform cohort default rate of approximately 2.00%.</li>
 <li>
Pivoting from Monoline P2P Lending to an Integrated Fintech Operator: The strategic acquisition and consolidation of digital payments gateway CardUp and the launch of the Elevate corporate card have decoupled the company from pure-play peer-to-peer (P2P) crowdfunding volatility. With payment Gross Transaction Value (GTV) exceeding an annualized US$1.4 billion, FY2024 group revenue expanded 11.5% YoY to US$54.3 million, while disciplined cost optimization and declining credit impairment charges narrowed net losses by 19.0% YoY to US$39.3 million.</li>
 <li>
Institutional Capital Access and Path to Breakeven: Supported by tier-one strategic and equity sponsors—including SoftBank Vision Fund 2, Peak XV Partners, Khazanah Nasional, CGC Digital, Maybank, and Cool Japan Fund—alongside scalable debt warehouse facilities from HSBC (US$100+ million commitment), Funding Societies is strategically capitalized to navigate macroeconomic cycles, lower its wholesale cost of funding, and converge toward sustained operating EBITDA profitability.</li>
</ul>This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.


  
Regional SME Digital Financing Leadership: Funding Societies Pte Ltd (operating as Modalku in Indonesia) represents Southeast Asia's largest unified digital financing and payments platform dedicated to micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs). Across its footprint in Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam, the group has originated more than S$7.09 billion (US$5.2+ billion) across 5.27 million transactions while sustaining disciplined underwriting indicated by a historical platform cohort default rate of approximately 2.00%.
  
Pivoting from Monoline P2P Lending to an Integrated Fintech Operator: The strategic acquisition and consolidation of digital payments gateway CardUp and the launch of the Elevate corporate card have decoupled the company from pure-play peer-to-peer (P2P) crowdfunding volatility. With payment Gross Transaction Value (GTV) exceeding an annualized US$1.4 billion, FY2024 group revenue expanded 11.5% YoY to US$54.3 million, while disciplined cost optimization and declining credit impairment charges narrowed net losses by 19.0% YoY to US$39.3 million.
  
Institutional Capital Access and Path to Breakeven: Supported by tier-one strategic and equity sponsors—including SoftBank Vision Fund 2, Peak XV Partners, Khazanah Nasional, CGC Digital, Maybank, and Cool Japan Fund—alongside scalable debt warehouse facilities from HSBC (US$100+ million commitment), Funding Societies is strategically capitalized to navigate macroeconomic cycles, lower its wholesale cost of funding, and converge toward sustained operating EBITDA profitability.
This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.

Primer: Funding Societies Pte Ltd (1431501D SP) - Oct 2026

Macro, FX and Rates Strategist

Ishaan Dev Kapoor

FX & Rates

Legacy Government (Sovereign) Generic Index-key ticker

<ul>
<li>The September 2027 contract prices three further hikes and a one-in-three chance of a fourth, 55bp above the committee's own projected path. We buy ZQU7 at 95.325 (4.675%), $7.5k DV01.</li>
<li>Diesel is 67% above a year ago, yet core PCE is running at 2% annualised. Firms are absorbing the shock, wages show no pass-through and inflation breadth is narrowing.</li>
<li>Policy is near neutral and financial conditions have tightened since September. Two further hikes would make policy restrictive in a supply shock; a less hawkish 2027 committee makes them unlikely.</li>
</ul>


The September 2027 contract prices three further hikes and a one-in-three chance of a fourth, 55bp above the committee's own projected path. We buy ZQU7 at 95.325 (4.675%), $7.5k DV01.
Diesel is 67% above a year ago, yet core PCE is running at 2% annualised. Firms are absorbing the shock, wages show no pass-through and inflation breadth is narrowing.
Policy is near neutral and financial conditions have tightened since September. Two further hikes would make policy restrictive in a supply shock; a less hawkish 2027 committee makes them unlikely.


A Terminal Rate the Data Do Not Support: Buying September 2027 Fed Funds Futures

Inclusive Investor Relations, Equity Development

Equity Development

Inclusive Investor Relations

We help companies communicate with all investors. We help all investors better understand those businesses.

Tatton Asset Management / Equity Bottom-Up

Tatton Asset Management provides on-platform discretionary fund management, regulatory, compliance, and business consulting services. The company also offers whole-market mortgage provision to directly authorized financial advisers across the United Kingdom. Headquartered in Wilmslow, UK, the company was founded in 2007.

<ul><li>Assets Under Management / Influence (AUM/I) rose 15% over H1 to a record £28.0bn at 30 September 2026, well ahead of the trajectory required to meet the medium term target of £30bn by end FY29.</li><li>Investment performance added £2.4bn and net flows added £1.0bn.</li><li> Tatton Investment Management returned 8.8% versus 8.6% for the Morningstar PIMFA Private Investor Balanced Index, while the IFA base grew by 77 to 1,295.</li></ul>

Assets Under Management / Influence (AUM/I) rose 15% over H1 to a record £28.0bn at 30 September 2026, well ahead of the trajectory required to meet the medium term target of £30bn by end FY29.Investment performance added £2.4bn and net flows added £1.0bn. Tatton Investment Management returned 8.8% versus 8.6% for the Morningstar PIMFA Private Investor Balanced Index, while the IFA base grew by 77 to 1,295.

Tatton Asset Management: AUM/I +15% over H1, forecasts & valuation upgraded

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul><li>No changes were made to the portfolio today.</li><li>The portfolio rose 0.7% on average, helped in part by a rebound in refinery stocks, outperforming the SET (-0.25%), which was weighed down by electronics stocks, particularly DELTA.</li><li>Stock inclusion and exclusion are based on forward earnings outlooks and relative price movements versus KTX's assessed fair value.</li></ul>

No changes were made to the portfolio today.The portfolio rose 0.7% on average, helped in part by a rebound in refinery stocks, outperforming the SET (-0.25%), which was weighed down by electronics stocks, particularly DELTA.Stock inclusion and exclusion are based on forward earnings outlooks and relative price movements versus KTX's assessed fair value.