Market Strategist, RW Advisory

Ron William

Market Strategist

RW Advisory

RW Advisory, founded by Ron William, a market strategist with 20+ years of experience, offers macro/tactical research and advisory to a wide range of financial institutions.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>US equities triggered key reversal signals as market breadth deteriorated, crowded AI leaders unwound, and indexes broke trend support, elevating near-term downside risk. </li>
<li>Macro uncertainty, tighter liquidity, and shifting investor psychology are pressuring high-liquidity growth assets, while gold and quality balance-sheet exposures provide relative resilience. </li>
<li>Multiple late-cycle timing models align into early 2026, raising the probability of episodic volatility and making disciplined positioning, selective risk-taking, and tactical hedging essential.</li>
</ul>


US equities triggered key reversal signals as market breadth deteriorated, crowded AI leaders unwound, and indexes broke trend support, elevating near-term downside risk. 
Macro uncertainty, tighter liquidity, and shifting investor psychology are pressuring high-liquidity growth assets, while gold and quality balance-sheet exposures provide relative resilience. 
Multiple late-cycle timing models align into early 2026, raising the probability of episodic volatility and making disciplined positioning, selective risk-taking, and tactical hedging essential.


Late-Cycle Tension: Rising Volatility Signals a Critical Market Inflection into 2026

Independent in-depth research from Finimize, Finimize

Finimize Research

Independent in-depth research from Finimize

Finimize

Finimize is the #1 information platform for modern investors. We empower people to become smarter investors with bitesize insights from world-class analysts. 1 million+ strong community, 250 partners.

<ul>
<li>This neat and tidy method can deliver crisis protection and smoother returns to your portfolio, using just four ETFs and a once-a-month adjustment</li>
<li>When markets are choppy, it’s natural to reach for forecasts, hot takes, and the thing everyone’s talking about. </li>
<li>But sometimes the smartest move is also the simplest: following the trend. Here’s a neat and tidy way to keep your portfolio in line with where the prices are heading.</li>
</ul>


This neat and tidy method can deliver crisis protection and smoother returns to your portfolio, using just four ETFs and a once-a-month adjustment
When markets are choppy, it’s natural to reach for forecasts, hot takes, and the thing everyone’s talking about. 
But sometimes the smartest move is also the simplest: following the trend. Here’s a neat and tidy way to keep your portfolio in line with where the prices are heading.


The Stupidly Simple Trend-Following Strategy That Actually Works

Asian Economist

Kok Peng Chan

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>By tracking chip sales, sector earnings and ICT profit margins our analysis point to an early-to-mid-cycle AI expansion, not an AI-bubble about to implode</li>
<li>WSTS data show AI demand in a de-synchronised mode, revealing a multi-speed chip cycle with AI in the fast lane and legacy end-markets still digesting past booms</li>
<li>Tech and communication stocks dominate the S&amp;P 500, but unlike 1999 their market and earnings share are broadly matched, suggesting elevated but not irrational pricing provided AI monetisation holds up</li>
</ul>


By tracking chip sales, sector earnings and ICT profit margins our analysis point to an early-to-mid-cycle AI expansion, not an AI-bubble about to implode
WSTS data show AI demand in a de-synchronised mode, revealing a multi-speed chip cycle with AI in the fast lane and legacy end-markets still digesting past booms
Tech and communication stocks dominate the S&amp;P 500, but unlike 1999 their market and earnings share are broadly matched, suggesting elevated but not irrational pricing provided AI monetisation holds up


<ul>
<li>Technological revolutions follow a sequence: they start with a disruptive “installation phase”, then go through a critical “turning point”, and are finally followed by a “deployment phase”.</li>
<li>According to Carlota Perez, AI isn’t the start of a new technological revolution: it’s a critical milestone in the current, longstanding “information and telecommunication” revolution.</li>
<li>Being aware of different phases is valuable when investing. It can help you play the contrarian card – staying cautious during the frenzy and making bolder bets during the downturns.</li>
</ul>


Technological revolutions follow a sequence: they start with a disruptive “installation phase”, then go through a critical “turning point”, and are finally followed by a “deployment phase”.
According to Carlota Perez, AI isn’t the start of a new technological revolution: it’s a critical milestone in the current, longstanding “information and telecommunication” revolution.
Being aware of different phases is valuable when investing. It can help you play the contrarian card – staying cautious during the frenzy and making bolder bets during the downturns.


AI And Investing In The New Technological Revolution

<ul>
<li>Ray Dalio actually made an art form of it: his All-Weather Portfolio spreads risk across economic scenarios like inflation, deflation, growth, and slowdowns.</li>
<li>You can improve on it by layering a simple trend filter on top. Do that, and the risk-adjusted returns get a serious boost: drawdowns shrink and the ride is smoother.</li>
<li>The traditional All-Weather Portfolio, 2x leveraged, delivered an 8.7% annual return with 13.8% volatility, and a Sharpe of 0.48. The trend-filtered version 8.2% return and a Sharpe 0.71.</li>
</ul>


Ray Dalio actually made an art form of it: his All-Weather Portfolio spreads risk across economic scenarios like inflation, deflation, growth, and slowdowns.
You can improve on it by layering a simple trend filter on top. Do that, and the risk-adjusted returns get a serious boost: drawdowns shrink and the ride is smoother.
The traditional All-Weather Portfolio, 2x leveraged, delivered an 8.7% annual return with 13.8% volatility, and a Sharpe of 0.48. The trend-filtered version 8.2% return and a Sharpe 0.71.


Ray Dalio’s All-Weather Portfolio Works In Any Market – And This Tweak Makes It Even Better