Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Q124 silicon wafer area shipments amounted to 2,834 MSI, down 5% QoQ and down 13.2% YoY. </li>
<li>In revenue terms, the top 4 global manufacturers reported revenues of $2.2 billion, down 10.4% QoQ and down 20.8% YoY.</li>
<li>Taiwan's recent earthquake did not impact Globalwafers shipments due to high inventory levels. However, tools were damaged, highlighting the risk of having so much wafer production in earthquake prone countries</li>
</ul>


Q124 silicon wafer area shipments amounted to 2,834 MSI, down 5% QoQ and down 13.2% YoY. 
In revenue terms, the top 4 global manufacturers reported revenues of $2.2 billion, down 10.4% QoQ and down 20.8% YoY.
Taiwan's recent earthquake did not impact Globalwafers shipments due to high inventory levels. However, tools were damaged, highlighting the risk of having so much wafer production in earthquake prone countries


Silicon Wafer Q124 Review, CY24 Outlook & Earthquake Risk

<ul>
<li>Q124 DRAM revenue $18.2 billion, up 6% QoQ and up 88% YoY. NAND revenue $14.1 billion, up 23.4% QoQ and 68.8% YoY</li>
<li>ASP increases, HBM, NAND for enterprise SSD and looming shortages for legacy products are all mounting tailwinds for the beleaguered memory segment</li>
<li>First quarter ASP increases for DRAM &amp; NAND for Micron, SK Hynix &amp; Samsung were almost identical. That's quite a coincidence..</li>
</ul>


Q124 DRAM revenue $18.2 billion, up 6% QoQ and up 88% YoY. NAND revenue $14.1 billion, up 23.4% QoQ and 68.8% YoY
ASP increases, HBM, NAND for enterprise SSD and looming shortages for legacy products are all mounting tailwinds for the beleaguered memory segment
First quarter ASP increases for DRAM &amp; NAND for Micron, SK Hynix &amp; Samsung were almost identical. That's quite a coincidence..


Semiconductor Memory. Profits Return & Tailwinds Mount On Surging (& Very Similar) ASP Increases

Independent Economist, Forecaster and Strategist

Thomas Lam

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The April CPI release, though market friendly, did not change the overall message  </li>
<li>The key message that inflation is still above the Fed’s goal and that the level of trend inflation is uncertain remains unchanged  </li>
<li>Although market-based expectations for a rate cut improved after the CPI data, the odds of potential Fed action are unsettled   </li>
</ul>


The April CPI release, though market friendly, did not change the overall message  
The key message that inflation is still above the Fed’s goal and that the level of trend inflation is uncertain remains unchanged  
Although market-based expectations for a rate cut improved after the CPI data, the odds of potential Fed action are unsettled   


<ul>
<li>The anomalous behavior of the unemployment rate bears further monitoring</li>
<li>The ongoing labor market rebalancing could prospectively result in a higher unemployment rate with a lag</li>
<li>While the April survey data implies potentially soggy headline growth in 2Q 2024, my weekly recession odds indicator remains relatively benign for now </li>
</ul>


The anomalous behavior of the unemployment rate bears further monitoring
The ongoing labor market rebalancing could prospectively result in a higher unemployment rate with a lag
While the April survey data implies potentially soggy headline growth in 2Q 2024, my weekly recession odds indicator remains relatively benign for now 


Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Q1 Performance Analysis for active Global EM funds.  Country/Sector/Stock Positioning relative to benchmark for Global funds</li>
<li>Spotlight on Indonesia activity among Asia Ex-Japan investors.  Sector Dispersion in USA funds</li>
<li>Extreme Stock Positioning in UK Small/Midcap funds. Ownership Trends in the Financials sector among MSCI China funds.</li>
</ul>


Q1 Performance Analysis for active Global EM funds.  Country/Sector/Stock Positioning relative to benchmark for Global funds
Spotlight on Indonesia activity among Asia Ex-Japan investors.  Sector Dispersion in USA funds
Extreme Stock Positioning in UK Small/Midcap funds. Ownership Trends in the Financials sector among MSCI China funds.


Iceland
Insights on Iceland

Silicon Wafer Q124 Review, CY24 Outlook & Earthquake Risk

Q124 wafer shipments 2,834 MSI, -5% QoQ & -13.2% YoY. Revenues of top 4 were $2.2 billion, -10.4% QoQ & -20.8% YoY. Siltronic makes a good hedge...

William Keating

Semiconductor Memory. Profits Return & Tailwinds Mount On Surging (& Very Similar) ASP Increases

Q124 DRAM revenue $18.2 billion, up 6% QoQ and up 88% YoY. NAND revenue $14.1 billion, up 23.4% QoQ and 68.8% YoY. Q124 ASP increases for Micron,...

William Keating

The Latest CPI Release Teases Markets

The April CPI inflation data, while improving market risk appetite, fails to resolve the continuing debate on the Fed and balance of risks...

Thomas Lam

The Art and Science of Data Dependence

The latest data tug-of-war, though relatively murky and uneven, implies emerging hints of less forward momentum with patches of softness.

Thomas Lam

New Release: Fund Positioning Chart Pack

The latest trends in active equity fund positioning, from Indonesian activity among Asia Ex-Japan funds to sector dispersion among active US funds.

Steven Holden