Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Q124 silicon wafer area shipments amounted to 2,834 MSI, down 5% QoQ and down 13.2% YoY. </li>
<li>In revenue terms, the top 4 global manufacturers reported revenues of $2.2 billion, down 10.4% QoQ and down 20.8% YoY.</li>
<li>Taiwan's recent earthquake did not impact Globalwafers shipments due to high inventory levels. However, tools were damaged, highlighting the risk of having so much wafer production in earthquake prone countries</li>
</ul>


Q124 silicon wafer area shipments amounted to 2,834 MSI, down 5% QoQ and down 13.2% YoY. 
In revenue terms, the top 4 global manufacturers reported revenues of $2.2 billion, down 10.4% QoQ and down 20.8% YoY.
Taiwan's recent earthquake did not impact Globalwafers shipments due to high inventory levels. However, tools were damaged, highlighting the risk of having so much wafer production in earthquake prone countries


Silicon Wafer Q124 Review, CY24 Outlook & Earthquake Risk

Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>UK wage data continues to surpass expectations, however, the Bank of England remains unfazed. There are concerns that premature rate cuts could lead to a financial bubble and policy reversal, akin to the situation in 1998. The UK does not benefit from the Euro Area's disinflationary data.</li><li>The upcoming week will be dominated by monetary policy speeches and rate decisions from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Indonesia, Korea, and Chile.</li><li>UK inflation data is the macro highlight of the week, with expectations aligning with the current CPI consensus. The release of Thursday’s flash PMIs is also of significance.</li></ul>

UK wage data continues to surpass expectations, however, the Bank of England remains unfazed. There are concerns that premature rate cuts could lead to a financial bubble and policy reversal, akin to the situation in 1998. The UK does not benefit from the Euro Area's disinflationary data.The upcoming week will be dominated by monetary policy speeches and rate decisions from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Indonesia, Korea, and Chile.UK inflation data is the macro highlight of the week, with expectations aligning with the current CPI consensus. The release of Thursday’s flash PMIs is also of significance.

<ul><li>The final EA HICP inflation print confirmed the unsurprising stability at 2.4% in the April flash release. Energy price base effects will probably push it higher again in May.</li><li>Underlying inflationary pressures have continued falling, with most statistical measures under 3% y-o-y with monthly impulses at or slightly below the ECB’s target.</li><li>Like the consensus, we expect inflation to stay close to 2%. This outlook and subdued underlying pressures will likely ease the ECB’s decision to start cutting rates in June.</li></ul><p></p>

The final EA HICP inflation print confirmed the unsurprising stability at 2.4% in the April flash release. Energy price base effects will probably push it higher again in May.Underlying inflationary pressures have continued falling, with most statistical measures under 3% y-o-y with monthly impulses at or slightly below the ECB’s target.Like the consensus, we expect inflation to stay close to 2%. This outlook and subdued underlying pressures will likely ease the ECB’s decision to start cutting rates in June.

<ul>
<li>Q124 DRAM revenue $18.2 billion, up 6% QoQ and up 88% YoY. NAND revenue $14.1 billion, up 23.4% QoQ and 68.8% YoY</li>
<li>ASP increases, HBM, NAND for enterprise SSD and looming shortages for legacy products are all mounting tailwinds for the beleaguered memory segment</li>
<li>First quarter ASP increases for DRAM &amp; NAND for Micron, SK Hynix &amp; Samsung were almost identical. That's quite a coincidence..</li>
</ul>


Q124 DRAM revenue $18.2 billion, up 6% QoQ and up 88% YoY. NAND revenue $14.1 billion, up 23.4% QoQ and 68.8% YoY
ASP increases, HBM, NAND for enterprise SSD and looming shortages for legacy products are all mounting tailwinds for the beleaguered memory segment
First quarter ASP increases for DRAM &amp; NAND for Micron, SK Hynix &amp; Samsung were almost identical. That's quite a coincidence..


Semiconductor Memory. Profits Return & Tailwinds Mount On Surging (& Very Similar) ASP Increases

Independent Economist, Forecaster and Strategist

Thomas Lam

<ul>
<li>The April CPI release, though market friendly, did not change the overall message  </li>
<li>The key message that inflation is still above the Fed’s goal and that the level of trend inflation is uncertain remains unchanged  </li>
<li>Although market-based expectations for a rate cut improved after the CPI data, the odds of potential Fed action are unsettled   </li>
</ul>


The April CPI release, though market friendly, did not change the overall message  
The key message that inflation is still above the Fed’s goal and that the level of trend inflation is uncertain remains unchanged  
Although market-based expectations for a rate cut improved after the CPI data, the odds of potential Fed action are unsettled   


Ireland
Insights on Ireland

Silicon Wafer Q124 Review, CY24 Outlook & Earthquake Risk

Q124 wafer shipments 2,834 MSI, -5% QoQ & -13.2% YoY. Revenues of top 4 were $2.2 billion, -10.4% QoQ & -20.8% YoY. Siltronic makes a good hedge...

William Keating

HEW: Resilient Data Test Dependency

UK wage data continues to surpass expectations, however, the Bank of England remains unfazed. There are concerns that premature rate cuts could...

Phil Rush

EA Inflation Eases ECB Cut in June

The final EA HICP inflation print confirmed the unsurprising stability at 2.4% in the April flash release. Energy price base effects will probably...

Phil Rush

Semiconductor Memory. Profits Return & Tailwinds Mount On Surging (& Very Similar) ASP Increases

Q124 DRAM revenue $18.2 billion, up 6% QoQ and up 88% YoY. NAND revenue $14.1 billion, up 23.4% QoQ and 68.8% YoY. Q124 ASP increases for Micron,...

William Keating

The Latest CPI Release Teases Markets

The April CPI inflation data, while improving market risk appetite, fails to resolve the continuing debate on the Fed and balance of risks...

Thomas Lam