Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The worst services PMIs thawed in November, broadening growth even as averages held steady. Activity in the US services ISM has trended up to exceed the PMI data now.</li><li>A slight fading of stagflationary pressures in the latest US surveys probably balances out in the Fed’s policy trade-off. We still fear that it is easing excessively.</li><li>Rising unemployment rates in the US and UK are concerns not experienced in most of the world. This theme feeds their recent divergence from the global surprise tendency.</li></ul>

The worst services PMIs thawed in November, broadening growth even as averages held steady. Activity in the US services ISM has trended up to exceed the PMI data now.A slight fading of stagflationary pressures in the latest US surveys probably balances out in the Fed’s policy trade-off. We still fear that it is easing excessively.Rising unemployment rates in the US and UK are concerns not experienced in most of the world. This theme feeds their recent divergence from the global surprise tendency.

<ul><li>A surprise rise in EA inflation to 2.2% in November meant October’s long-awaited dip was a false dawn for a disinflationary consensus exceeded by 0.4pp since June.</li><li>The accumulated extent and the increase in service inflation to 3.5% are concerning, but the latest news was narrowly concentrated in Greece, with other errors being minor.</li><li>Stronger underlying momentum into year-end is preventing the January base effects from driving it significantly below target. The ECB’s good place isn’t breaking dovishly.</li></ul>

A surprise rise in EA inflation to 2.2% in November meant October’s long-awaited dip was a false dawn for a disinflationary consensus exceeded by 0.4pp since June.The accumulated extent and the increase in service inflation to 3.5% are concerning, but the latest news was narrowly concentrated in Greece, with other errors being minor.Stronger underlying momentum into year-end is preventing the January base effects from driving it significantly below target. The ECB’s good place isn’t breaking dovishly.

<ul><li>Volatile markets and policy guidance washed out, with pricing and forecasts little changed on the month.</li><li>Bailey is biased to ease, but the BoE is awakening to its inflation problem. It should cut less than dovishly priced.</li><li>Higher unemployment could move beyond a structural shift from policy to signal a less elevated neutral rate.</li></ul>

Volatile markets and policy guidance washed out, with pricing and forecasts little changed on the month.Bailey is biased to ease, but the BoE is awakening to its inflation problem. It should cut less than dovishly priced.Higher unemployment could move beyond a structural shift from policy to signal a less elevated neutral rate.

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc is a specialty biopharmaceutical company focused on improving patients' lives by identifying, developing and commercializing innovative products that address unmet medical needs. The company has a diverse portfolio of products in the areas of narcolepsy, oncology, pain and psychiatry.

<ul><li>Jazz Pharmaceuticals reported a strong performance in the third quarter of 2025, achieving a record revenue surpassing $1.1 billion.</li><li>The growth was largely driven by solid sales from Xywav, Epidiolex, and the successful early launch of Modeyso.</li><li>These developments underscore the company's ability to deliver highly differentiated therapies addressing serious unmet medical needs, which is an indication of strategic execution and robust operational capabilities.</li></ul>

Jazz Pharmaceuticals reported a strong performance in the third quarter of 2025, achieving a record revenue surpassing $1.1 billion.The growth was largely driven by solid sales from Xywav, Epidiolex, and the successful early launch of Modeyso.These developments underscore the company's ability to deliver highly differentiated therapies addressing serious unmet medical needs, which is an indication of strategic execution and robust operational capabilities.

Jazz Pharmaceuticals Inside Story: How CNS & Oncology Deals Are Building a New Revenue Machine!

External broker reports, Nordea

Nordea

External broker reports

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Nordea is the bank in the Nordics dedicated to serving corporations and institutional customers. Our offering includes a diverse range of financing, cash management and payment services, investment banking, capital markets products, securities services and more. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>The monetary policyaccountfrom the ECB’sOctobermeeting furthersuggested that the ECB is not close to further changes in its monetary policy.</li><li>While some downside risks have receded, the focus still seems to be on the remaining downside risks, especially from the external sector.</li><li>At the same time, the economy has continued to show resilience.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The monetary policyaccountfrom the ECB’sOctobermeeting furthersuggested that the ECB is not close to further changes in its monetary policy.While some downside risks have receded, the focus still seems to be on the remaining downside risks, especially from the external sector.At the same time, the economy has continued to show resilience.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

ECB Watch: More focus on financial stability risks

Ireland
Insights on Ireland

Activity Thaws Into Winter

The worst services PMIs thawed in November, broadening growth even as averages held steady. Activity in the US services ISM has trended up to...

Phil Rush

EA: False Dawn For Disinflation

A surprise rise in EA inflation to 2.2% in November meant October’s long-awaited dip was a false dawn for a disinflationary consensus exceeded by...

Phil Rush

HEM: Dec-25 Views & Challenges

Volatile markets and policy guidance washed out, with pricing and forecasts little changed on the month. Bailey is biased to ease, but the BoE is...

Phil Rush

Jazz Pharmaceuticals Inside Story: How CNS & Oncology Deals Are Building a New Revenue Machine!

Jazz Pharmaceuticals reported a strong performance in the third quarter of 2025, achieving a record revenue surpassing $1.1 billion. The growth...

Baptista Research

ECB Watch: More focus on financial stability risks

The monetary policyaccountfrom the ECB’sOctobermeeting furthersuggested that the ECB is not close to further changes in its monetary policy.

Nordea