Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>EA inflation rose by 16bp to 3.19% in May, only 2bps above our forecast, but less painful than the consensus expected in recent weeks. National releases may have cut calls.</li>
<li>Surprises were broadly small, with more downside ones averaging 0.1pp, balanced by bigger country strength. Upside was in services while downside was in energy.</li>
<li>The ECB is set to demonstrate its commitment to the target with an 11 June hike. This rise provides no excuse not to, but demand destruction urges restraint beyond that.</li>
</ul>


EA inflation rose by 16bp to 3.19% in May, only 2bps above our forecast, but less painful than the consensus expected in recent weeks. National releases may have cut calls.
Surprises were broadly small, with more downside ones averaging 0.1pp, balanced by bigger country strength. Upside was in services while downside was in energy.
The ECB is set to demonstrate its commitment to the target with an 11 June hike. This rise provides no excuse not to, but demand destruction urges restraint beyond that.


Chief Economist, Aletheia Capital

Dr. Jim Walker

Independent and original Asian investment research

Aletheia Capital

Aletheia Capital (HK) Ltd. (previously known as Asianomics) combines the extensive knowledge of its experienced team with technology and regulatory changes to disrupt Global Markets business in Asia. The firm is completely independent with no conflicts of interest either on Investment Banking advisory or Capital Markets execution.

<ul><li>20 day data for Korean exports were up 65% YoY might look strong but in reality it is not. Why? Korean exports were up 48% YoY in April but 41% price rises means exports in volume terms are only in the mid-single digits, which is nothing special. </li><li>China industrial profits were up 25% YoY in April, this suggests that there's something of a recovery going on in the Chinese economy. It could well be down to purely price effects in some industries, but something worth noting anyway.</li><li>We attended a meeting in London earlier in May, where a number of industrialists from Asia and Europe gathered to talk about what was going on in the world. One large industrial company from Germany was particularly downbeat and pessimistic about what's going on there, the industrial decline and the job losses are getting serious in Germany.</li></ul>

20 day data for Korean exports were up 65% YoY might look strong but in reality it is not. Why? Korean exports were up 48% YoY in April but 41% price rises means exports in volume terms are only in the mid-single digits, which is nothing special. China industrial profits were up 25% YoY in April, this suggests that there's something of a recovery going on in the Chinese economy. It could well be down to purely price effects in some industries, but something worth noting anyway.We attended a meeting in London earlier in May, where a number of industrialists from Asia and Europe gathered to talk about what was going on in the world. One large industrial company from Germany was particularly downbeat and pessimistic about what's going on there, the industrial decline and the job losses are getting serious in Germany.

Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim's Summary of Key Global Macro Developments - 29 May 2026

<ul>
<li>The Strait of Hormuz remains closed, increasing the supply shock, but markets are functioning, allowing pricing to relax bullishly.</li>
<li>We still expect only one hike from the ECB and BoE. A reignited conflict would help raise that response to be like 2003, not 2022.</li>
<li>Dovishly biased assumptions at the BoE leave it accommodating too much excess, delivering persistently above target inflation.</li>
</ul>


The Strait of Hormuz remains closed, increasing the supply shock, but markets are functioning, allowing pricing to relax bullishly.
We still expect only one hike from the ECB and BoE. A reignited conflict would help raise that response to be like 2003, not 2022.
Dovishly biased assumptions at the BoE leave it accommodating too much excess, delivering persistently above target inflation.


Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Eastern Europe has quietly become a consensus overweight among active EM managers, with 60.6% of funds positioned above the iShares MSCI EM ETF benchmark, the third most overweighted sub-region globally.</li>
<li>Eastern Europe's reliance on Financials is the highest of any sub-region, concentrated in just a handful of stocks.</li>
<li>Breadth of the investable universe remains a structural constraint, with Eastern Europe invested across only 149 companies, comparable to non-benchmark Developed Europe and far behind the EM Big Four's 2,336.</li>
</ul>


Eastern Europe has quietly become a consensus overweight among active EM managers, with 60.6% of funds positioned above the iShares MSCI EM ETF benchmark, the third most overweighted sub-region globally.
Eastern Europe's reliance on Financials is the highest of any sub-region, concentrated in just a handful of stocks.
Breadth of the investable universe remains a structural constraint, with Eastern Europe invested across only 149 companies, comparable to non-benchmark Developed Europe and far behind the EM Big Four's 2,336.


External broker reports(aggregated public sources), ABN AMRO

ABN AMRO

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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<ul><li>GDP grew by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter, a stronger-than-expected headline figure that overstates the underlying momentum of the economy.</li><li>Domestic demand remained stagnant, while the increased contribution from exports was likely boosted by temporary factors such as frontloading.</li><li>The war in Iran weighed only modestly on economic activity, but the negative impact of higher energy prices is expected to intensify in the coming quarters, leading to a slowdown in growth momentum. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

GDP grew by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter, a stronger-than-expected headline figure that overstates the underlying momentum of the economy.Domestic demand remained stagnant, while the increased contribution from exports was likely boosted by temporary factors such as frontloading.The war in Iran weighed only modestly on economic activity, but the negative impact of higher energy prices is expected to intensify in the coming quarters, leading to a slowdown in growth momentum. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Germany - Weaker outlook amid rising risks and political uncertainty

Germany
Insights on Germany

EA Inflation Lifts ECB Rates

EA inflation rose to 3.19% in May, as expected, but less severe than the consensus recently feared. Service prices surprised higher, reversing...

Phil Rush

Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim's Summary of Key Global Macro Developments - 29 May 2026

20 day data for Korean exports were up 65% YoY might look strong but in reality it is not. Why? Korean exports were up 48% YoY in April but 41%...

Dr. Jim Walker

HEM: Jun-26 Views & Challenges

Hormuz stays shut, but still-functioning markets prove bullish even as the supply shock deepens. One ECB and BoE hike still looks most likely, but...

Phil Rush

Eastern Europe: The Quiet Overweight

Active EM managers have built a consensus overweight in Eastern Europe, but beneath the headline numbers lies a concentrated Financials trade...

Steven Holden

Germany - Weaker outlook amid rising risks and political uncertainty

GDP grew by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter, a stronger-than-expected headline figure that overstates the underlying momentum of the...

ABN AMRO