Smartkarma AI Primers, Smartkarma

αSK Primers

Smartkarma AI Primers

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

Equity Bottom-Up

Kaspi.kz Joint Stock Company develops financial technology application solutions. The Company, through its platform, offers payments, marketplace, and fintech solutions which facilitate day-to-day transactions between consumers and merchants. Kaspi.kz serves consumers, merchants, and entrepreneurs in Kazakhstan.

<ul>
 <li>
<a href="https://smartkarma.com/entities/kaspi-kz-joint-stock-company-sponsored-adr-regs">Kaspi.kz</a> maintains an entrenched digital ecosystem in Kazakhstan across Payments, Marketplace, and Fintech, driven by an integrated Super App with industry-leading user engagement and near-zero customer acquisition costs.</li>
 <li>A sharp valuation multiple compression from historical peaks of ~34x P/E to ~7.4x P/E creates an asymmetric risk-reward setup, where base-case annual returns are estimated at ~16% in US dollars supported by robust cash conversion.</li>
 <li>Near-term headwinds—including elevated domestic banking tax rates, higher reserve requirements, and execution integration risks surrounding the Turkish e-commerce platform Hepsiburada—are balanced by advertising monetization and potential domestic policy-rate cuts.</li>
</ul>This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.


  
Kaspi.kz maintains an entrenched digital ecosystem in Kazakhstan across Payments, Marketplace, and Fintech, driven by an integrated Super App with industry-leading user engagement and near-zero customer acquisition costs.
  A sharp valuation multiple compression from historical peaks of ~34x P/E to ~7.4x P/E creates an asymmetric risk-reward setup, where base-case annual returns are estimated at ~16% in US dollars supported by robust cash conversion.
  Near-term headwinds—including elevated domestic banking tax rates, higher reserve requirements, and execution integration risks surrounding the Turkish e-commerce platform Hepsiburada—are balanced by advertising monetization and potential domestic policy-rate cuts.
This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.

Quality-first, Business-perspective, Long-term, Urbem (HK) Limited

Urbem Capital

Quality-first, Business-perspective, Long-term

Quality-first, Business-perspective Strategy

Urbem (HK) Limited

<ul>
<li>Since our July 2021 Top Pick, Kaspi.kz more than tripled net income in US dollars and deepened engagement, confirming our view of the franchise.</li>
<li>Shareholders earned only about 1% a year because the multiple fell from 34x to 7.4x, a valuation risk our 2021 piece never quantified.</li>
<li>At today’s price, our base case returns about 16% a year in dollars, our tenge-risk hurdle; if Türkiye works, rates fall and the tenge holds, returns could exceed 30%.</li>
</ul>


Since our July 2021 Top Pick, Kaspi.kz more than tripled net income in US dollars and deepened engagement, confirming our view of the franchise.
Shareholders earned only about 1% a year because the multiple fell from 34x to 7.4x, a valuation risk our 2021 piece never quantified.
At today’s price, our base case returns about 16% a year in dollars, our tenge-risk hurdle; if Türkiye works, rates fall and the tenge holds, returns could exceed 30%.


Kaspi.kz Five Years On: We Overpaid in 2021; at 7.4x, the Price Now Works

Director, Sentiment Matters

Lars Kreckel

Director

The mood of the market, mapped and decoded

Sentiment Matters

Investor sentiment is the overall mood of investors - how bullish or bearish they are on a market or asset.

Sentiment is part of every investor’s investment process. Whether for macro investors, stock pickers, or thematic investors, it matters whether a position is consensus or contrarian.

Cross Asset Strategy

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Buy Side Sentiment Tracker: we aggregate asset-allocation views from 54 top asset managers across 73 assets, based on 1,400+ individual views.</li>
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Bullish, but not extreme: Risk appetite is high and rising, yet equity downgrades and resilient sovereign demand show the Buy Side is far from universally risk-on.</li>
<li>
Max Contrarian: Infrastructure, Industrial Metals and Gold are most popular; Swiss Franc, Cash and Consumer Staples are least popular.</li>
</ul>



Buy Side Sentiment Tracker: we aggregate asset-allocation views from 54 top asset managers across 73 assets, based on 1,400+ individual views.

Bullish, but not extreme: Risk appetite is high and rising, yet equity downgrades and resilient sovereign demand show the Buy Side is far from universally risk-on.

Max Contrarian: Infrastructure, Industrial Metals and Gold are most popular; Swiss Franc, Cash and Consumer Staples are least popular.


Sentiment Matters: Buy Side Sentiment Tracker - October 2026

<ul>
<li>
Treasuries Sentiment has turned sharply bearish, but not extreme. The SMA sits around the 30th percentile, still above its historical buy threshold.</li>
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The underlying picture is mixed. Momentum and some speculative positioning are very bearish, while buy-side sentiment, options, analyst expectations and flows remain closer to neutral.</li>
<li>
This is not broad capitulation. Price action has been persistently poor rather than disorderly, leaving room for sentiment to deteriorate further before a stronger contrarian signal emerges.</li>
</ul>



Treasuries Sentiment has turned sharply bearish, but not extreme. The SMA sits around the 30th percentile, still above its historical buy threshold.

The underlying picture is mixed. Momentum and some speculative positioning are very bearish, while buy-side sentiment, options, analyst expectations and flows remain closer to neutral.

This is not broad capitulation. Price action has been persistently poor rather than disorderly, leaving room for sentiment to deteriorate further before a stronger contrarian signal emerges.


Sentiment Matters: US Treasuries Bearish, But Not Capitulation

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

<ul>
<li>Analysts at JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs say oil flows from the Middle East are nearly back to normal, with JPM putting it at 98%.</li>
<li>
Shipping data, tanker rates, and oil prices directly contradict the Wall Street narrative.  </li>
<li>Unlike during the brief truce in June, none of the indicators show that oil flow is increasing.</li>
</ul>


Analysts at JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs say oil flows from the Middle East are nearly back to normal, with JPM putting it at 98%.

Shipping data, tanker rates, and oil prices directly contradict the Wall Street narrative.  
Unlike during the brief truce in June, none of the indicators show that oil flow is increasing.


STRAIT OF HORMUZ IS BACK TO NORMAL....REALLY???: Wall Street's Slippery Narrative