Covering the Mexican Economy, Actinver Research

Actinver

Covering the Mexican Economy

Actinver Research

Actinver is a mexican leading financial group, that generates well being for individuals and companies through advisory services that provides investment management to maintain and grow their wealth.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>After updating some PTs to the downside, we lower our FY26 and 12M MEXBOL PTs to 68,000 and 73,500, respectively, a low-to-mid-single-digit decline vs. previous estimates, amid a lack of overall catalysts, while some companies hold attractive investment thesis and valuation levels.</li>
<li>In Consumer, we expect another soft quarter amid sluggish demand in Mexico and the U.S., FX headwinds and fading (company-specific) World Cup tailwinds.</li>
<li>We lower our PTs for 10 companies (out of 15), and raise them for KOF, FEMSA and TBBB. In Food &amp; Bev, we prefer Bimbo (Top Pick), AC and Sigma (new coverage); in Consumer Discretionary, Alsea; in HPC, Genomma Lab; and in Supermarkets, TBBB. </li>
</ul>


After updating some PTs to the downside, we lower our FY26 and 12M MEXBOL PTs to 68,000 and 73,500, respectively, a low-to-mid-single-digit decline vs. previous estimates, amid a lack of overall catalysts, while some companies hold attractive investment thesis and valuation levels.
In Consumer, we expect another soft quarter amid sluggish demand in Mexico and the U.S., FX headwinds and fading (company-specific) World Cup tailwinds.
We lower our PTs for 10 companies (out of 15), and raise them for KOF, FEMSA and TBBB. In Food &amp; Bev, we prefer Bimbo (Top Pick), AC and Sigma (new coverage); in Consumer Discretionary, Alsea; in HPC, Genomma Lab; and in Supermarkets, TBBB. 


Actinver Research - Mexico Equity Research: 3Q26 Preview

Smartkarma AI Primers, Smartkarma

αSK Primers

Smartkarma AI Primers

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

Equity Bottom-Up

Sigma Lithium Corporation is a global lithium producer focused on developing environmentally sustainable, chemical-grade lithium concentrate for electric vehicle batteries. The company operates its wholly-owned Grota do Cirilo project in Brazil, which is an integrated hard-rock lithium mining and industrial beneficiation complex. Sigma Lithium was founded in 2012 and is headquartered in Sao Paulo, Brazil, with principal executive offices also in Toronto, Canada.

<ul>
 <li>
Premier Low-Cost, Sustainable Spodumene Producer: <a href="https://smartkarma.com/entities/sigma-lithium-corporation-unsponsored-gdr">Sigma Lithium</a> Corporation operates the flagship Grota do Cirilo hard-rock lithium project in Minas Gerais, Brazil, producing chemical-grade spodumene concentrate (5.5%-6.0% Li2O). Leveraging 100% renewable hydroelectric power, dry-stacked tailings without tailings dams, and 100% water recirculation, Sigma holds industry-leading 'Triple Zero' green credentials with bottom-quartile cash costs (~$500-$590/t AISC).</li>
 <li>
Phase 2 Expansion Driving Volume and Operating Leverage: Having achieved commercial nameplate throughput of 270,000-330,000 tonnes per annum (tpa) in Phase 1, the company is advancing its Phase 2 expansion to reach 520,000 tpa, with a long-term modular pathway toward 800,000 tpa. This capacity expansion positions Sigma as the largest lithium concentrate producer in the Americas, generating significant economies of scale as unit fixed costs amortize over larger export volumes.</li>
 <li>
Financial Inflection After Cyclical Trough: Following severe market-wide price compression across 2024 and 2025, Sigma demonstrated marked operational turnaround in 1H 2026, delivering gross margins above 50% and generating positive operating cash flow of 153.34 million in 2Q26. However, single-asset concentration, historical earnings volatility (-280.37 million net income in FY2025), and commodity price reliance warrant a High Uncertainty rating alongside an Attractive valuation entry point.</li>
</ul>This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.


  
Premier Low-Cost, Sustainable Spodumene Producer: Sigma Lithium Corporation operates the flagship Grota do Cirilo hard-rock lithium project in Minas Gerais, Brazil, producing chemical-grade spodumene concentrate (5.5%-6.0% Li2O). Leveraging 100% renewable hydroelectric power, dry-stacked tailings without tailings dams, and 100% water recirculation, Sigma holds industry-leading 'Triple Zero' green credentials with bottom-quartile cash costs (~$500-$590/t AISC).
  
Phase 2 Expansion Driving Volume and Operating Leverage: Having achieved commercial nameplate throughput of 270,000-330,000 tonnes per annum (tpa) in Phase 1, the company is advancing its Phase 2 expansion to reach 520,000 tpa, with a long-term modular pathway toward 800,000 tpa. This capacity expansion positions Sigma as the largest lithium concentrate producer in the Americas, generating significant economies of scale as unit fixed costs amortize over larger export volumes.
  
Financial Inflection After Cyclical Trough: Following severe market-wide price compression across 2024 and 2025, Sigma demonstrated marked operational turnaround in 1H 2026, delivering gross margins above 50% and generating positive operating cash flow of 153.34 million in 2Q26. However, single-asset concentration, historical earnings volatility (-280.37 million net income in FY2025), and commodity price reliance warrant a High Uncertainty rating alongside an Attractive valuation entry point.
This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.

Primer: Sigma Lithium (S2GM34 BR) - Oct 2026

Understand How Markets Actually Work, Learning.Investing.Thriving.

Marc Rudajev

Understand How Markets Actually Work

Learning.Investing.Thriving.

Learning.Investing.Thriving. is built on a simple idea: If you want to build wealth, you need more than stock tips. You need to understand how markets actually work.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Fast Five is normally a weekly snapshot during earnings season.</li><li>We pick five of the week's most important earnings releases, pull out the numbers that matter, and keep it quick.</li><li>This one's different. Brazil just had an election that moved the whole market 8% in a day, and I thought it merited a releasing a Fast Five episode this week.</li></ul>

Fast Five is normally a weekly snapshot during earnings season.We pick five of the week's most important earnings releases, pull out the numbers that matter, and keep it quick.This one's different. Brazil just had an election that moved the whole market 8% in a day, and I thought it merited a releasing a Fast Five episode this week.

Fast Five Special Edition: Brazil Election Results & A Primer on Petrobras.

Market Intelligence, ORTEX

ORTEX Market Intel

Market Intelligence

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

Equity Derivatives

Cabot Corporation has businesses in chemicals, performance materials, and specialty fluids.  The Company manufactures and sells carbon black, fumed silica, plastics, ink jet colorants, tantalum, niobium, and germanium.  Cabot's specialty fluids business produces and markets cesium formate as a drilling and completion fluid for use in oil and gas well operations.

<ul><li>Sentiment read: Options flow split sharply this week.</li><li>Momentum and ETF names drew aggressive call buying, pushing put-call ratios to historic lows.</li><li>At the same time, traders loaded up on puts ahead of several October and November earnings dates, a pattern that dominated the high-severity alerts.</li></ul>

Sentiment read: Options flow split sharply this week.Momentum and ETF names drew aggressive call buying, pushing put-call ratios to historic lows.At the same time, traders loaded up on puts ahead of several October and November earnings dates, a pattern that dominated the high-severity alerts.

Options Weekly: Bears Circle Earnings Names as Call Fever Grips Momentum Stocks

Banco Bradesco S.A. is a prominent Brazilian financial services company offering a wide array of services including retail and corporate banking, loans, insurance, pensions, investments, and payment solutions. It is one of the largest private banks in Brazil and a major player in Latin America. The company was founded on March 10, 1943, and is headquartered in Osasco, Brazil.

<ul><li>Short interest shifted sharply this week across Brazilian financials, energy ETFs, and a clutch of mid-cap US names.</li><li>The biggest stories were a 56% surge in Bradesco shorts despite a JP Morgan upgrade, a 52% collapse in Nomura short interest, and a 41% single-day spike in a space ETF.</li><li>Borrow markets tightened across several names, signalling active repositioning on both sides.</li></ul>

Short interest shifted sharply this week across Brazilian financials, energy ETFs, and a clutch of mid-cap US names.The biggest stories were a 56% surge in Bradesco shorts despite a JP Morgan upgrade, a 52% collapse in Nomura short interest, and a 41% single-day spike in a space ETF.Borrow markets tightened across several names, signalling active repositioning on both sides.

Bears Scramble: Brazil Names and ETFs Dominate This Week's Short Moves