Asian Economist

Kok Peng Chan

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>China’s low consumption ratio is driven by structural constraints—stagnant labour income, early and rapid household leverage, heavy debt burdens, declining workforce and persistent precautionary saving</li>
<li>Such constraints on household consumption mean recent policy announcements to expand overall domestic demand will take longer than expected to deliver a durable consumption-driven Chinese economy</li>
<li>China’s ten-year bond yield appears to recognise this reality, pricing in persistently weak nominal growth and subdued domestic demand rather than a consumption-driven reacceleration. It is now lower than Japan</li>
</ul>


China’s low consumption ratio is driven by structural constraints—stagnant labour income, early and rapid household leverage, heavy debt burdens, declining workforce and persistent precautionary saving
Such constraints on household consumption mean recent policy announcements to expand overall domestic demand will take longer than expected to deliver a durable consumption-driven Chinese economy
China’s ten-year bond yield appears to recognise this reality, pricing in persistently weak nominal growth and subdued domestic demand rather than a consumption-driven reacceleration. It is now lower than Japan


China’s Consumption Push: Will It Take Off?

Chief Economist, Aletheia Capital

Dr. Jim Walker

Chief Economist

Independent and original Asian investment research

Aletheia Capital

Aletheia Capital (HK) Ltd. (previously known as Asianomics) combines the extensive knowledge of its experienced team with technology and regulatory changes to disrupt Global Markets business in Asia. The firm is completely independent with no conflicts of interest either on Investment Banking advisory or Capital Markets execution.

<ul><li data-start="0" data-end="190">South Korean export prices rose 7 percent year on year, signaling a strong recovery after summer weakness, while Chinese real retail sales grew around 3 percent despite nominal softness.</li><li data-start="192" data-end="358">Chinese monetary aggregates expanded, with M2 up 8 percent and M0 growth at 10.6 percent, indicating monetary and credit support despite consumer price deflation.</li><li data-start="360" data-end="571" data-is-last-node="">Thailand cut interest rates slightly, Japanese yields surged beyond policy adjustments, and U.S. artificial intelligence investment faces structural limits, likely causing widespread disappointment in returns.</li></ul>

South Korean export prices rose 7 percent year on year, signaling a strong recovery after summer weakness, while Chinese real retail sales grew around 3 percent despite nominal softness.Chinese monetary aggregates expanded, with M2 up 8 percent and M0 growth at 10.6 percent, indicating monetary and credit support despite consumer price deflation.Thailand cut interest rates slightly, Japanese yields surged beyond policy adjustments, and U.S. artificial intelligence investment faces structural limits, likely causing widespread disappointment in returns.

Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim's Summary of Key Global Macro Developments -19 Dec 2025

External broker reports, Nordea

Nordea

External broker reports

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<ul><li>Over the past several months, the market has remained remarkably stable, and covered bonds have delivered strong performance, at least until recently.</li><li>This period of market calmness provided me with the opportunity to develop a factor model capable of consistently modeling both levels and returns on assets across different countries and product types.</li><li>This development aligns well with investors' increasingly diversified approach, as they move away from monoline strategies and adopt broader asset perspectives.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Over the past several months, the market has remained remarkably stable, and covered bonds have delivered strong performance, at least until recently.This period of market calmness provided me with the opportunity to develop a factor model capable of consistently modeling both levels and returns on assets across different countries and product types.This development aligns well with investors' increasingly diversified approach, as they move away from monoline strategies and adopt broader asset perspectives.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bonds & bold: How to run your hedge fund in 2026

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CardinalStone

CardinalStone

CardinalStone is an independent, multi-asset investment management firm offering an assortment of financial services to a diverse institutional, high net worth and retail clientele base. The company began operations in June 2008 and its business is conducted across six divisions – Investment Banking, Asset Management, Securities Trading, Trust Services, Registrar Services and Financing. Headquartered in Lagos with offices in Abuja, Nigeria, the firm and its licensed subsidiaries diligently works with its clients to create bespoke solutions for their needs.

<ul><li>The global oil market is expected to remain under pressure in the near term, with OPEC+'s ongoing production ramp-up.</li><li>As of September 2025, the group had fully reversed its initial tranche of voluntary production cuts to the tune of 2.5 million barrels per day (mbpd) in a bid to regain its market share.</li><li>This reversal is likely to result in an oversupplied market in 2025 and 2026.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The global oil market is expected to remain under pressure in the near term, with OPEC+'s ongoing production ramp-up.As of September 2025, the group had fully reversed its initial tranche of voluntary production cuts to the tune of 2.5 million barrels per day (mbpd) in a bid to regain its market share.This reversal is likely to result in an oversupplied market in 2025 and 2026.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Sector Update - Oil & Gas - Energy Outlook: Global Headwinds, Local Tailwinds

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BNP Paribas

BNP Paribas

Based in Paris, BNP Paribas' Economic Research Department is composed of economists and statisticians: The OECD Economics team, in charge of macroeconomic and financial forecasts, and the team of statisticians, both headed by Hélène Baudchon. The Emerging Economies and Country Risk team, led by François Faure and assisted by Christine Peltier, responsible for assessing country risk and its components. The Banking Economics team, led by Laurent Quignon, studies the banking systems of major developed countries and the impact of prudential standards. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>While the Fed eased its monetary policy on 10 December for the third consecutive FOMC meeting, without making any guarantees about future action, the Bank of England (BoE), the ECB and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) are holding their respective meetings this week.</li><li>The BoE is expected to cut its key interest rate, the ECB to keep it steady, and the BoJ to raise it.</li><li>These decisions come amid resilient growth performance despite shocks, which should lead central banks to remain cautious, whether in terms of easing (a residual cut expected for the BoE and none for the ECB) or raising key rates (which should remain a gradual process in Japan).</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

While the Fed eased its monetary policy on 10 December for the third consecutive FOMC meeting, without making any guarantees about future action, the Bank of England (BoE), the ECB and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) are holding their respective meetings this week.The BoE is expected to cut its key interest rate, the ECB to keep it steady, and the BoJ to raise it.These decisions come amid resilient growth performance despite shocks, which should lead central banks to remain cautious, whether in terms of easing (a residual cut expected for the BoE and none for the ECB) or raising key rates (which should remain a gradual process in Japan).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Monetary policy: three central banks, three decisions, the same caution

Macroeconomics
Macroeconomics Insights

China’s Consumption Push: Will It Take Off?

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South Korean export prices rose 7 percent year on year, signaling a strong recovery after summer weakness, while Chinese real retail sales grew...

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Over the past several months, the market has remained remarkably stable, and covered bonds have delivered strong performance, at least until recently.

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As of September 2025, the group had fully reversed its initial tranche of voluntary production cuts to the tune of 2.5 million barrels per day...

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While the Fed eased its monetary policy on 10 December for the third consecutive FOMC meeting, without making any guarantees about future action,...

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