Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The Fed lowered its policy rate by 25 basis points and announced a liquidity management programme to add cash to the banking system during a period of seasonal stress.</li>
<li>New forward guidance suggests only two more rate reductions over the next two years, but Chairman Powell seemed more dovish about the outlook for policy in his press conference.</li>
<li>Fed policy settings have become less restrictive and have almost returned to neutrality, based on r*. Real-Time data from commodity and equity markets suggest monetary conditions have eased since April.</li>
</ul>


The Fed lowered its policy rate by 25 basis points and announced a liquidity management programme to add cash to the banking system during a period of seasonal stress.
New forward guidance suggests only two more rate reductions over the next two years, but Chairman Powell seemed more dovish about the outlook for policy in his press conference.
Fed policy settings have become less restrictive and have almost returned to neutrality, based on r*. Real-Time data from commodity and equity markets suggest monetary conditions have eased since April.


Fed Policy Taking Dovish Tilt in 2026 as Liquidity Management Programme Aims to Lower Repo Stress

External broker reports, Nordea

Nordea

External broker reports

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Nordea is the bank in the Nordics dedicated to serving corporations and institutional customers. Our offering includes a diverse range of financing, cash management and payment services, investment banking, capital markets products, securities services and more. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>CPIFstood at 2.3% y/y andCPIF ex energyat 2.4 % y/y in November.</li><li>Thus, the year-on-year figures according to the flash published a week ago were confirmed.</li><li>The outcome was lower than expected ahead of the flash.Seasonally adjusted, the monthly change in inflation excluding energy and foreign travel dropped somewhat below the 2% target.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CPIFstood at 2.3% y/y andCPIF ex energyat 2.4 % y/y in November.Thus, the year-on-year figures according to the flash published a week ago were confirmed.The outcome was lower than expected ahead of the flash.Seasonally adjusted, the monthly change in inflation excluding energy and foreign travel dropped somewhat below the 2% target.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Swedish November final inflation review: Food prices down

<ul><li>It is widely expected that on 18 December the Riksbank will announce that the policy rate remains unchanged at 1.75%, which is also our forecast.</li><li>Anything else would be a huge surprise. Inflation is following the forecast path and economic growth has picked up, allowing the central bank to stay sidelined near term.</li><li>Following the pattern of the latest two monetary policy meetings, the Riksbank is expected to signal that the policy rate will hold steady throughout 2026. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

It is widely expected that on 18 December the Riksbank will announce that the policy rate remains unchanged at 1.75%, which is also our forecast.Anything else would be a huge surprise. Inflation is following the forecast path and economic growth has picked up, allowing the central bank to stay sidelined near term.Following the pattern of the latest two monetary policy meetings, the Riksbank is expected to signal that the policy rate will hold steady throughout 2026. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Topline Securities

Topline Securities

Topline Securities is one of the fastest growing brokerage houses in Pakistan. It has strong equity brokerage, economic / equity research, mutual fund distribution, commodity trading and corporate finance & advisory functions. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>IMF has released its detail report pertaining to second review of the Pakistan under Extended Funded Facility (EFF) and first review of Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF).</li><li>As per report, Pakistan has met 6 out of 7 Quantitative Performance Criteria (QPC) and 4 out of 8 Indicative Targets (ITs).</li><li>The one QPC which wasn’t met was a very minor miss of floor on spending on targeted cash transfer spending (BISP) target of Rs599bn while actual spent was Rs598bn, a miss of Rs463mn or 0.0004% of GDP.</li></ul>

IMF has released its detail report pertaining to second review of the Pakistan under Extended Funded Facility (EFF) and first review of Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF).As per report, Pakistan has met 6 out of 7 Quantitative Performance Criteria (QPC) and 4 out of 8 Indicative Targets (ITs).The one QPC which wasn’t met was a very minor miss of floor on spending on targeted cash transfer spending (BISP) target of Rs599bn while actual spent was Rs598bn, a miss of Rs463mn or 0.0004% of GDP.

Pakistan Market - IMF Program; 11 New Structural Benchmarks; US$250mn Panda Bond Launch Likely

Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

<ul><li>Another hawkish repricing occurred, despite little support from the Fed, although the six members favouring higher rates reveal hawkish discomfort beyond current voters.</li><li>Trade with China is still avoiding the trade war well enough to prevent a massive shock, and UK GDP data kept following its residual seasonality rather than fundamental stories.</li><li>It’s all happening next week as central banks and statistical authorities ram releases in before Christmas. Bailey’s bias to pivot should deliver a BoE cut while the ECB holds.</li></ul>

Another hawkish repricing occurred, despite little support from the Fed, although the six members favouring higher rates reveal hawkish discomfort beyond current voters.Trade with China is still avoiding the trade war well enough to prevent a massive shock, and UK GDP data kept following its residual seasonality rather than fundamental stories.It’s all happening next week as central banks and statistical authorities ram releases in before Christmas. Bailey’s bias to pivot should deliver a BoE cut while the ECB holds.

Macroeconomics
Macroeconomics Insights

Fed Policy Taking Dovish Tilt in 2026 as Liquidity Management Programme Aims to Lower Repo Stress

The Fed lowered its policy rate to 3.5%-3.75% last week as expected and launched a liquidity management programme to relieve repo funding stress....

DeSaque Macro Research

Swedish November final inflation review: Food prices down

CPIFstood at 2.3% y/y andCPIF ex energyat 2.4 % y/y in November.Thus, the year-on-year figures according to the flash published a week ago were...

Nordea

Ahead of the Riksbank – Reaction times

It is widely expected that on 18 December the Riksbank will announce that the policy rate remains unchanged at 1.75%, which is also our forecast.

Nordea

Pakistan Market - IMF Program; 11 New Structural Benchmarks; US$250mn Panda Bond Launch Likely

IMF has released its detail report pertaining to second review of the Pakistan under Extended Funded Facility (EFF) and first review of Resilience...

Topline Securities

HEW: Packing Festive Presents

Another hawkish repricing occurred, despite little support from the Fed, although the six members favouring higher rates reveal hawkish discomfort...

Phil Rush