Independent Economist, Forecaster and Strategist

Thomas Lam

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The April CPI release, though market friendly, did not change the overall message  </li>
<li>The key message that inflation is still above the Fed’s goal and that the level of trend inflation is uncertain remains unchanged  </li>
<li>Although market-based expectations for a rate cut improved after the CPI data, the odds of potential Fed action are unsettled   </li>
</ul>


The April CPI release, though market friendly, did not change the overall message  
The key message that inflation is still above the Fed’s goal and that the level of trend inflation is uncertain remains unchanged  
Although market-based expectations for a rate cut improved after the CPI data, the odds of potential Fed action are unsettled   


Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

<ul><li>Welcome to our weekly EM editorial where we shed light on the most important developments in the EM space in the context of the impulses from the USD markets.</li><li>Things are heating up in the global macro space as we are standing at crossroads.</li><li>Is the macro momentum finally rolling over globally (including in the US) or are we amidst a potential rebound from China that wreaks havoc with the current increasingly dovish Western consensus?</li></ul>

Welcome to our weekly EM editorial where we shed light on the most important developments in the EM space in the context of the impulses from the USD markets.Things are heating up in the global macro space as we are standing at crossroads.Is the macro momentum finally rolling over globally (including in the US) or are we amidst a potential rebound from China that wreaks havoc with the current increasingly dovish Western consensus?

China Watch: No one has noticed that China is exporting INFLATION again..

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>The Biden Administration announced this week an increase of tariffs targeting some China’s strategic sectors starting this year.</li><li>For solar cell/module (tariff to increase from 25% to 50%), we believe there will be no real impact given that direct export from China to the US was &lt;1% in 2023.</li><li>That said, the upcoming decision on tariff targeting the Southeast Asia will be more critical given meaningful Chinese companies’ capacity is located there (~60GW by end-2023). </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

The Biden Administration announced this week an increase of tariffs targeting some China’s strategic sectors starting this year.For solar cell/module (tariff to increase from 25% to 50%), we believe there will be no real impact given that direct export from China to the US was &lt;1% in 2023.That said, the upcoming decision on tariff targeting the Southeast Asia will be more critical given meaningful Chinese companies’ capacity is located there (~60GW by end-2023). Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Capital Goods - Assessing the impact of US tariff on China’s solar cells and STS cranes

AI Generated Content, Heteronomics

Heteronomics AI

AI Generated Content

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

<ul><li>US CPI inflation in April 2024 slowed to 3.36% year-on-year, slightly lower than the consensus estimate.</li><li>The Core CPI rate in April 2024 matched expectations by slowing to 3.6% year-on-year.</li><li>Despite the improvement, the Core CPI rate still indicates excessively high underlying pressures.</li></ul><div><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></div>

US CPI inflation in April 2024 slowed to 3.36% year-on-year, slightly lower than the consensus estimate.The Core CPI rate in April 2024 matched expectations by slowing to 3.6% year-on-year.Despite the improvement, the Core CPI rate still indicates excessively high underlying pressures.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

US CPI Inflation 3.36% y-o-y (consensus 3.4%) in Apr-24

<ul><li>Main Takeaways: Core inflation is still way too hot, but this report speaks well to the crowd hoping for rate cuts.</li><li>Food and Shelter are the two dovish surprises… Both are re-accelerating in live data which will likely come into effect laterApril was super soft in real-time activity data and there isn’t much to suggest that it will continue in May, where data is on the rise again… But for now, this feeds the FCI loop in a positive sense, which will allow risk assets to ride the dovish CPI wave for now.</li><li>US Headline CPI rose 0.31% on the month, whilst core inflation increased by 0.29%, with consensus at 0.4% and 0.3%.</li></ul>

Main Takeaways: Core inflation is still way too hot, but this report speaks well to the crowd hoping for rate cuts.Food and Shelter are the two dovish surprises… Both are re-accelerating in live data which will likely come into effect laterApril was super soft in real-time activity data and there isn’t much to suggest that it will continue in May, where data is on the rise again… But for now, this feeds the FCI loop in a positive sense, which will allow risk assets to ride the dovish CPI wave for now.US Headline CPI rose 0.31% on the month, whilst core inflation increased by 0.29%, with consensus at 0.4% and 0.3%.

US CPI Review – Everything is soft in April

Macroeconomics
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