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Heteronomics AI

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Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The Riksbank cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to 2%, in line with consensus expectations, citing weaker economic growth and a subdued inflation outlook.</li><li>The decision reflects persistent uncertainty in both domestic demand and the global environment, with the central bank signalling a non-trivial probability of further easing should inflation remain below target and recovery falter.</li><li>Future policy decisions will be highly data-dependent, with particular attention to inflation dynamics, labour market conditions, and the impact of ongoing geopolitical and trade-related risks.</li></ul><div><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></div>

The Riksbank cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to 2%, in line with consensus expectations, citing weaker economic growth and a subdued inflation outlook.The decision reflects persistent uncertainty in both domestic demand and the global environment, with the central bank signalling a non-trivial probability of further easing should inflation remain below target and recovery falter.Future policy decisions will be highly data-dependent, with particular attention to inflation dynamics, labour market conditions, and the impact of ongoing geopolitical and trade-related risks.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Sweden: 25bp Rate Cut To 2% (Consensus 2%) in Jun-25

<ul><li>Bank Indonesia maintained the BI-Rate at 5.50% in June 2025, in line with consensus expectations, citing stable inflation and a resilient rupiah as key factors.</li><li>The decision reflects a cautious approach amid persistent global uncertainties, with BI emphasising the need to preserve macroeconomic stability while supporting growth through accommodative macroprudential and payment system policies.</li><li>The interest rate outlook remains data-dependent, with the central bank signalling potential for further easing if inflation and currency stability persist, but maintaining a prudent stance given external risks and the need to attract foreign capital.</li></ul><div><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></div>

Bank Indonesia maintained the BI-Rate at 5.50% in June 2025, in line with consensus expectations, citing stable inflation and a resilient rupiah as key factors.The decision reflects a cautious approach amid persistent global uncertainties, with BI emphasising the need to preserve macroeconomic stability while supporting growth through accommodative macroprudential and payment system policies.The interest rate outlook remains data-dependent, with the central bank signalling potential for further easing if inflation and currency stability persist, but maintaining a prudent stance given external risks and the need to attract foreign capital.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Indonesia: Policy Rate Held At 5.5% (Consensus 5.5%) in Jun-25

Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Chief Economist

<ul><li>Disinflationary news from May’s flash inflation release was confirmed in the final print, although a rebound in some underlying inflation measures damped the initial signal.</li><li>Resurgent oil prices could rapidly reverse the dovish space expanded by past falls. Our forecast bumps around the target through 2026 and 2027, settling at 2%.</li><li>Other forecasts are a little lower and only suffer a slight bias to be exceeded. The ECB can remain reassured by an outlook close to 2% without cuts, and not deliver any more.</li></ul><p></p>

Disinflationary news from May’s flash inflation release was confirmed in the final print, although a rebound in some underlying inflation measures damped the initial signal.Resurgent oil prices could rapidly reverse the dovish space expanded by past falls. Our forecast bumps around the target through 2026 and 2027, settling at 2%.Other forecasts are a little lower and only suffer a slight bias to be exceeded. The ECB can remain reassured by an outlook close to 2% without cuts, and not deliver any more.

<ul><li>UK inflation unsurprisingly slowed in May as a correction to vehicle excise duty knocked 0.1pp from the rate, reversing all the upside to our above-consensus April forecast.</li><li>Services inflation aligns with the BoE’s forecast from its May forecast, where MPC members were biased towards slowing their easing. Underlying rates remain too high.</li><li>Inflation keeps trending above the consensus, cumulating a 1pp error since rate cuts began, but aligning with our forecast from 1yr and 2yrs ago. We remain hawkish.</li></ul><p></p>

UK inflation unsurprisingly slowed in May as a correction to vehicle excise duty knocked 0.1pp from the rate, reversing all the upside to our above-consensus April forecast.Services inflation aligns with the BoE’s forecast from its May forecast, where MPC members were biased towards slowing their easing. Underlying rates remain too high.Inflation keeps trending above the consensus, cumulating a 1pp error since rate cuts began, but aligning with our forecast from 1yr and 2yrs ago. We remain hawkish.

<ul><li>The FOMC maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25% to 4.5%, in line with expectations, citing resilient economic activity and a still-elevated inflation profile.</li><li>Revised projections indicate slower GDP growth and a higher inflation path for 2025, with upside risks to inflation dominating the policy outlook and contributing to a more cautious approach to rate normalisation.</li><li>Future interest rate decisions will hinge on the persistence of inflationary pressures—particularly from tariffs—and the anchoring of inflation expectations, with the Committee retaining a flexible, data-dependent stance.</li></ul><div><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></div>

The FOMC maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25% to 4.5%, in line with expectations, citing resilient economic activity and a still-elevated inflation profile.Revised projections indicate slower GDP growth and a higher inflation path for 2025, with upside risks to inflation dominating the policy outlook and contributing to a more cautious approach to rate normalisation.Future interest rate decisions will hinge on the persistence of inflationary pressures—particularly from tariffs—and the anchoring of inflation expectations, with the Committee retaining a flexible, data-dependent stance.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

US: Policy Rate Held At 4.5% (Consensus 4.5%) in Jun-25