Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The BoE FPC cut capital requirements in a surprise macroprudential easing that adds to the less-tight fiscal policy to lessen the need for BoE rate cuts, but one is coming.</li><li>UK CFOs reveal no progress in breaking excessive inflation expectations for 18 months, EA inflation surprisingly rose, and the worst PMIs improved as resilience broadened.</li><li>Another Fed cut is firmly priced, setting it up to be delivered, but members are likely to dissent against it and remain cautious in only forecasting one more cut in 2026.</li></ul><p></p>

The BoE FPC cut capital requirements in a surprise macroprudential easing that adds to the less-tight fiscal policy to lessen the need for BoE rate cuts, but one is coming.UK CFOs reveal no progress in breaking excessive inflation expectations for 18 months, EA inflation surprisingly rose, and the worst PMIs improved as resilience broadened.Another Fed cut is firmly priced, setting it up to be delivered, but members are likely to dissent against it and remain cautious in only forecasting one more cut in 2026.

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<ul>
<li>RBI's MPC cut 25bp as expected, but it remains behind the curve, with the real policy rate now excessively high at +5%. RBI inflation forecasts were and remain too high. </li>
<li>Food deflation is likely to be shortlived, with vegetable prices rising MoM since May'25. But all other food and non-food inflation components are moderating, and GST cuts impart further disinflation. </li>
<li>We expect inflation to be 1.8%YoY in Q4FY26 (vs RBI's 2.9%YoY forecast), 2.3% and 2.5% in Q1 and Q2FY27, so expect another 75bp reduction in repo rate by Aug'26. </li>
</ul>


RBI's MPC cut 25bp as expected, but it remains behind the curve, with the real policy rate now excessively high at +5%. RBI inflation forecasts were and remain too high. 
Food deflation is likely to be shortlived, with vegetable prices rising MoM since May'25. But all other food and non-food inflation components are moderating, and GST cuts impart further disinflation. 
We expect inflation to be 1.8%YoY in Q4FY26 (vs RBI's 2.9%YoY forecast), 2.3% and 2.5% in Q1 and Q2FY27, so expect another 75bp reduction in repo rate by Aug'26. 


India: RBI Cuts 25bp but the Real Policy Rate Is Still Too High at +5%

AI Generated Content, Heteronomics

Heteronomics AI

AI Generated Content

<ul><li>RBI cuts repo rate by 25bps to 5.25% as expected, citing exceptional disinflation (0.25% October CPI) and 8.2% growth, though maintaining a neutral stance signals easing cycle may be nearing end.</li><li>It forecasts headline inflation to fall to 0.6% in Q3 before rebounding sharply to 2.9% and 3.9% subsequently, limiting the scope for additional rate cuts despite growth moderating from current highs.</li><li>Durable liquidity injections alongside rate cuts acknowledge monetary transmission constraints. The consensus sees 5.25% as the terminal rate, with policy dependent on inflation normalisation and external sector stability.</li></ul><div><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></div>

RBI cuts repo rate by 25bps to 5.25% as expected, citing exceptional disinflation (0.25% October CPI) and 8.2% growth, though maintaining a neutral stance signals easing cycle may be nearing end.It forecasts headline inflation to fall to 0.6% in Q3 before rebounding sharply to 2.9% and 3.9% subsequently, limiting the scope for additional rate cuts despite growth moderating from current highs.Durable liquidity injections alongside rate cuts acknowledge monetary transmission constraints. The consensus sees 5.25% as the terminal rate, with policy dependent on inflation normalisation and external sector stability.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

India: Goldilocks Gives Way to Constraints

Asia Economist and CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors

Manu Bhaskaran

Asia Economist and CEO

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

<ul>
<li>Singapore’s stunning economic performance this year, led by strong exports and resilient domestic consumption, masks concerns over the impact of AI, tariffs and other challenges. </li>
<li>Government efforts to hedge industrial bets and trade relations, as well as enhance indigenous capacity by reallocating resources, provide some buffer against these issues. </li>
<li>Yet, the volatility of flows that comes with being a hub and the instability of the South China Sea are deeply intertwined with Singapore’s economic model. </li>
</ul>


Singapore’s stunning economic performance this year, led by strong exports and resilient domestic consumption, masks concerns over the impact of AI, tariffs and other challenges. 
Government efforts to hedge industrial bets and trade relations, as well as enhance indigenous capacity by reallocating resources, provide some buffer against these issues. 
Yet, the volatility of flows that comes with being a hub and the instability of the South China Sea are deeply intertwined with Singapore’s economic model. 


Singapore Economics: Strategic Responses to a Changing Global Order

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>Taiwan insurer is emerging market subset, coming to the offshore USD bond market since Sep’24 with new issue premium ahead of the full adoption of IFRS.</li><li>Despite the tightened credit spread compared with the levels when we first put out our trade ideas in Jul’25, we continue to prefer SHIKON 6.95 06/26/35 for over NSINTWs for 20bps yield pick-up.</li><li>We also continue to prefer FUBON 5.45 12/10/35 with a yield pick-up of 10bps.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Taiwan insurer is emerging market subset, coming to the offshore USD bond market since Sep’24 with new issue premium ahead of the full adoption of IFRS.Despite the tightened credit spread compared with the levels when we first put out our trade ideas in Jul’25, we continue to prefer SHIKON 6.95 06/26/35 for over NSINTWs for 20bps yield pick-up.We also continue to prefer FUBON 5.45 12/10/35 with a yield pick-up of 10bps.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CMBI Fixed Income - Taiwan Lifers: An emerging subset with new premium

Macroeconomics
Macroeconomics Insights

HEW: Easing Before The Festive Storm

The BoE FPC cut capital requirements in a surprise macroprudential easing that adds to the less-tight fiscal policy to lessen the need for BoE...

Phil Rush

India: RBI Cuts 25bp but the Real Policy Rate Is Still Too High at +5%

RBI cut rates 25bp but remains behind the curve, as its inflation forecasts were and remain too high. We expect another 75bp of rate cuts by...

Prasenjit K. Basu

India: Goldilocks Gives Way to Constraints

RBI cuts repo rate by 25bps to 5.25% as expected, citing exceptional disinflation (0.25% October CPI) and 8.2% growth, though maintaining a...

Heteronomics AI

Singapore Economics: Strategic Responses to a Changing Global Order

Singapore's strong economic performance is overshadowed by concerns over AI, tariffs, and other challenges, but government efforts provide some...

Manu Bhaskaran

CMBI Fixed Income - Taiwan Lifers: An emerging subset with new premium

Taiwan insurer is emerging market subset, coming to the offshore USD bond market since Sep’24 with new issue premium ahead of the full adoption of...

CMB International

HEW: Easing Before The Festive Storm

The BoE FPC cut capital requirements in a surprise macroprudential easing that adds to the less-tight fiscal policy to lessen the need for BoE...

Phil Rush

India: RBI Cuts 25bp but the Real Policy Rate Is Still Too High at +5%

​RBI cut rates 25bp but remains behind the curve, as its inflation forecasts were and remain too high. We expect another 75bp of rate cuts by...

Prasenjit K. Basu

India: Goldilocks Gives Way to Constraints

RBI cuts repo rate by 25bps to 5.25% as expected, citing exceptional disinflation (0.25% October CPI) and 8.2% growth, though maintaining a...

Heteronomics AI

Singapore Economics: Strategic Responses to a Changing Global Order

​Singapore's strong economic performance is overshadowed by concerns over AI, tariffs, and other challenges, but government efforts provide some...

Manu Bhaskaran

CMBI Fixed Income - Taiwan Lifers: An emerging subset with new premium

Taiwan insurer is emerging market subset, coming to the offshore USD bond market since Sep’24 with new issue premium ahead of the full adoption of...

CMB International

RBI cut rates 25bp but remains behind the curve, as its inflation forecasts were and remain too high. We expect another 75bp of rate cuts by...

Singapore's strong economic performance is overshadowed by concerns over AI, tariffs, and other challenges, but government efforts provide some...