Japan Economist, Japan Macro Advisors

Takuji Okubo

Japan Economist

Concise and Insightful Analysis on Japan Economy

Japan Macro Advisors

Our mission is to provide a concise and timely analysis on the Japanese economy for the benefit of global audiences. Communication, especially in foreign languages, has always been a weakness for the Japanese, which was fine when Japan's economic might attracted foreign media and various other institutions to study and report on Japan - such days are long gone. In the last two decades, we saw foreign institutions reallocating their resources from Japan to other more exciting parts of the world. As a result, when we read reporting on Japan in foreign media, we sense a subtle but noticeable decline in the depth of understanding what is actually happening in Japan.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>BoJ signals that the next hike will not be the last, with Governor Ueda hinting that policy rates will continue to rise as long as the current economic outlook holds.</li>
<li>Yen weakness and fiscal easing are emerging concerns for the BoJ, potentially keeping inflation elevated and increasing the risk of a faster tightening cycle.</li>
<li>October 2026 remains our baseline for the next hike. Risks are skewed toward an earlier move though, as soon as July 2026. </li>
</ul>


BoJ signals that the next hike will not be the last, with Governor Ueda hinting that policy rates will continue to rise as long as the current economic outlook holds.
Yen weakness and fiscal easing are emerging concerns for the BoJ, potentially keeping inflation elevated and increasing the risk of a faster tightening cycle.
October 2026 remains our baseline for the next hike. Risks are skewed toward an earlier move though, as soon as July 2026. 


Asian Economist

Kok Peng Chan

<ul>
<li>China’s low consumption ratio is driven by structural constraints—stagnant labour income, early and rapid household leverage, heavy debt burdens, declining workforce and persistent precautionary saving</li>
<li>Such constraints on household consumption mean recent policy announcements to expand overall domestic demand will take longer than expected to deliver a durable consumption-driven Chinese economy</li>
<li>China’s ten-year bond yield appears to recognise this reality, pricing in persistently weak nominal growth and subdued domestic demand rather than a consumption-driven reacceleration. It is now lower than Japan</li>
</ul>


China’s low consumption ratio is driven by structural constraints—stagnant labour income, early and rapid household leverage, heavy debt burdens, declining workforce and persistent precautionary saving
Such constraints on household consumption mean recent policy announcements to expand overall domestic demand will take longer than expected to deliver a durable consumption-driven Chinese economy
China’s ten-year bond yield appears to recognise this reality, pricing in persistently weak nominal growth and subdued domestic demand rather than a consumption-driven reacceleration. It is now lower than Japan


China’s Consumption Push: Will It Take Off?

Chief Economist, Aletheia Capital

Dr. Jim Walker

Chief Economist

Independent and original Asian investment research

Aletheia Capital

Aletheia Capital (HK) Ltd. (previously known as Asianomics) combines the extensive knowledge of its experienced team with technology and regulatory changes to disrupt Global Markets business in Asia. The firm is completely independent with no conflicts of interest either on Investment Banking advisory or Capital Markets execution.

<ul><li data-start="0" data-end="190">South Korean export prices rose 7 percent year on year, signaling a strong recovery after summer weakness, while Chinese real retail sales grew around 3 percent despite nominal softness.</li><li data-start="192" data-end="358">Chinese monetary aggregates expanded, with M2 up 8 percent and M0 growth at 10.6 percent, indicating monetary and credit support despite consumer price deflation.</li><li data-start="360" data-end="571" data-is-last-node="">Thailand cut interest rates slightly, Japanese yields surged beyond policy adjustments, and U.S. artificial intelligence investment faces structural limits, likely causing widespread disappointment in returns.</li></ul>

South Korean export prices rose 7 percent year on year, signaling a strong recovery after summer weakness, while Chinese real retail sales grew around 3 percent despite nominal softness.Chinese monetary aggregates expanded, with M2 up 8 percent and M0 growth at 10.6 percent, indicating monetary and credit support despite consumer price deflation.Thailand cut interest rates slightly, Japanese yields surged beyond policy adjustments, and U.S. artificial intelligence investment faces structural limits, likely causing widespread disappointment in returns.

Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim's Summary of Key Global Macro Developments -19 Dec 2025

External broker reports, Nordea

Nordea

External broker reports

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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<ul><li>Over the past several months, the market has remained remarkably stable, and covered bonds have delivered strong performance, at least until recently.</li><li>This period of market calmness provided me with the opportunity to develop a factor model capable of consistently modeling both levels and returns on assets across different countries and product types.</li><li>This development aligns well with investors' increasingly diversified approach, as they move away from monoline strategies and adopt broader asset perspectives.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Over the past several months, the market has remained remarkably stable, and covered bonds have delivered strong performance, at least until recently.This period of market calmness provided me with the opportunity to develop a factor model capable of consistently modeling both levels and returns on assets across different countries and product types.This development aligns well with investors' increasingly diversified approach, as they move away from monoline strategies and adopt broader asset perspectives.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bonds & bold: How to run your hedge fund in 2026

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CardinalStone

CardinalStone

CardinalStone is an independent, multi-asset investment management firm offering an assortment of financial services to a diverse institutional, high net worth and retail clientele base. The company began operations in June 2008 and its business is conducted across six divisions – Investment Banking, Asset Management, Securities Trading, Trust Services, Registrar Services and Financing. Headquartered in Lagos with offices in Abuja, Nigeria, the firm and its licensed subsidiaries diligently works with its clients to create bespoke solutions for their needs.

<ul><li>The global oil market is expected to remain under pressure in the near term, with OPEC+'s ongoing production ramp-up.</li><li>As of September 2025, the group had fully reversed its initial tranche of voluntary production cuts to the tune of 2.5 million barrels per day (mbpd) in a bid to regain its market share.</li><li>This reversal is likely to result in an oversupplied market in 2025 and 2026.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The global oil market is expected to remain under pressure in the near term, with OPEC+'s ongoing production ramp-up.As of September 2025, the group had fully reversed its initial tranche of voluntary production cuts to the tune of 2.5 million barrels per day (mbpd) in a bid to regain its market share.This reversal is likely to result in an oversupplied market in 2025 and 2026.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Sector Update - Oil & Gas - Energy Outlook: Global Headwinds, Local Tailwinds

Macroeconomics
Macroeconomics Insights

More Hikes to Come in 2026-2027

BoJ signals that the next hike will not be the last. Yen weakness and fiscal easing are emerging concerns for the BoJ. The risks are sooner and...

Takuji Okubo

China’s Consumption Push: Will It Take Off?

This report shows why China’s consumption push faces structural limits, why rate cuts won’t work, and how delayed reform raises risks for equities,...

Kok Peng Chan

Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim's Summary of Key Global Macro Developments -19 Dec 2025

South Korean export prices rose 7 percent year on year, signaling a strong recovery after summer weakness, while Chinese real retail sales grew...

Dr. Jim Walker

Bonds & bold: How to run your hedge fund in 2026

Over the past several months, the market has remained remarkably stable, and covered bonds have delivered strong performance, at least until recently.

Nordea

Sector Update - Oil & Gas - Energy Outlook: Global Headwinds, Local Tailwinds

As of September 2025, the group had fully reversed its initial tranche of voluntary production cuts to the tune of 2.5 million barrels per day...

CardinalStone