Independent Economist, Forecaster and Strategist

Thomas Lam

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>While most central banks worldwide are on-hold currently, on average, rate cuts are preferred over rate hikes </li>
<li>The easing proportion of EM central banks is greater than that of DM central banks at this time</li>
<li>The majority of central banks globally are typically inclined toward the policy rate preferences of the Fed and BoE on balance </li>
</ul>


While most central banks worldwide are on-hold currently, on average, rate cuts are preferred over rate hikes 
The easing proportion of EM central banks is greater than that of DM central banks at this time
The majority of central banks globally are typically inclined toward the policy rate preferences of the Fed and BoE on balance 


Central Banks Globally: Cut, Hike or Pause?

Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

<ul><li>Resurgent services inflation surpassed expectations in the May flash, increasing the EA headline rate. Additionally, an unexpected drop in the EA unemployment rate and a wage settlement increase make it difficult for the ECB to reduce rates.</li><li>The ECB has essentially pre-committed to a rate cut on 6 June, meaning recent developments will likely impact future decisions, potentially leading to a hawkish cut.</li><li>The Bank of Canada is also expected to make a rate cut on 5 June, indicating that the ECB will not be the only bank making such a move this week.</li></ul>

Resurgent services inflation surpassed expectations in the May flash, increasing the EA headline rate. Additionally, an unexpected drop in the EA unemployment rate and a wage settlement increase make it difficult for the ECB to reduce rates.The ECB has essentially pre-committed to a rate cut on 6 June, meaning recent developments will likely impact future decisions, potentially leading to a hawkish cut.The Bank of Canada is also expected to make a rate cut on 5 June, indicating that the ECB will not be the only bank making such a move this week.

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>EU adds Temu to highest digital scrutiny tier due to risks like counterfeit goods and IP violations</li>
<li>Tesla recalls multiple models due to seat belt warning system flaw; plans software update in June</li>
<li>Russian court permits UniCredit to use Russian bonds as collateral, softening prior asset seizure terms</li>
</ul>


EU adds Temu to highest digital scrutiny tier due to risks like counterfeit goods and IP violations
Tesla recalls multiple models due to seat belt warning system flaw; plans software update in June
Russian court permits UniCredit to use Russian bonds as collateral, softening prior asset seizure terms


#9Business Buzz: Temu Under EU's Scrutiny, Tesla Recalls Vehicles, Court Eases UniCredit Restriction

<ul><li>EA inflation rebounded beyond expectations to 2.6% y-o-y in May, 5bps above our forecast. Services inflation surged to 4.1%, its highest since Oct-23.</li><li>The upside news in services was broad-based across member states, albeit partly offset by a lesser rebound in energy prices. The consistency of these surprises raises concerns.</li><li>Higher underlying inflation and wage settlements amid falling unemployment are unambiguously hawkish, but the ECB’s data dependence only applies beyond June’s cut.</li></ul><p></p>

EA inflation rebounded beyond expectations to 2.6% y-o-y in May, 5bps above our forecast. Services inflation surged to 4.1%, its highest since Oct-23.The upside news in services was broad-based across member states, albeit partly offset by a lesser rebound in energy prices. The consistency of these surprises raises concerns.Higher underlying inflation and wage settlements amid falling unemployment are unambiguously hawkish, but the ECB’s data dependence only applies beyond June’s cut.

EA Services Inflation Resurgent in May-24

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd-3d29a5a1-abbf-485d-86d8-c7106582b240" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5424:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group Ltd (BHP US)</a> Faces Setback in Copper Ambitions After Failed Anglo-American Takeover Attempt</li>
<li>China Considers Record Fine and Suspension for PwC Over <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-evergrande-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:479:1" rel="noopener">Evergrande (3333 HK)</a> Audits</li>
<li>Elon Musk Agrees to Testify in SEC Probe of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/twitter-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:667:1" rel="noopener">Twitter Inc (TWTR US)</a> Acquisition</li>
</ul>



BHP Group Ltd (BHP US) Faces Setback in Copper Ambitions After Failed Anglo-American Takeover Attempt
China Considers Record Fine and Suspension for PwC Over Evergrande (3333 HK) Audits
Elon Musk Agrees to Testify in SEC Probe of Twitter Inc (TWTR US) Acquisition


#8 Business Buzz: BHP's Setback, China Fine on PwC, Tesla's FSD in China, Slower US GDP, Twitter

Malta
Insights on Malta

Central Banks Globally: Cut, Hike or Pause?

My global diffusion indicator, which consists of DM and EM central banks, synthesizes the current policy rate environment.

Thomas Lam

HEW: ECB Can Cut With Crossed Fingers

Resurgent services inflation surpassed expectations in the May flash, increasing the EA headline rate. Additionally, an unexpected drop in the EA...

Phil Rush

#9Business Buzz: Temu Under EU's Scrutiny, Tesla Recalls Vehicles, Court Eases UniCredit Restriction

EU increases scrutiny on Temu for digital risks, Tesla recalls models for seat belt flaw, Russian court allows UniCredit to use bonds as collateral.

Nimish Maheshwari

EA Services Inflation Resurgent in May-24

EA inflation rebounded beyond expectations to 2.6% y-o-y in May, 5bps above our forecast. Services inflation surged to 4.1%, its highest since...

Phil Rush

#8 Business Buzz: BHP's Setback, China Fine on PwC, Tesla's FSD in China, Slower US GDP, Twitter

BHP Group Ltd faces setback in copper ambitions after failed takeover attempt; China considers record fine for PwC over Evergrande audits; Elon...

Nimish Maheshwari

Central Banks Globally: Cut, Hike or Pause?

My global diffusion indicator, which consists of DM and EM central banks, synthesizes the current policy rate environment.

Thomas Lam

HEW: ECB Can Cut With Crossed Fingers

Resurgent services inflation surpassed expectations in the May flash, increasing the EA headline rate. Additionally, an unexpected drop in the EA...

Phil Rush

#9Business Buzz: Temu Under EU's Scrutiny, Tesla Recalls Vehicles, Court Eases UniCredit Restriction

​EU increases scrutiny on Temu for digital risks, Tesla recalls models for seat belt flaw, Russian court allows UniCredit to use bonds as collateral.

Nimish Maheshwari

EA Services Inflation Resurgent in May-24

EA inflation rebounded beyond expectations to 2.6% y-o-y in May, 5bps above our forecast. Services inflation surged to 4.1%, its highest since...

Phil Rush

#8 Business Buzz: BHP's Setback, China Fine on PwC, Tesla's FSD in China, Slower US GDP, Twitter

​BHP Group Ltd faces setback in copper ambitions after failed takeover attempt; China considers record fine for PwC over Evergrande audits; Elon...

Nimish Maheshwari

EU increases scrutiny on Temu for digital risks, Tesla recalls models for seat belt flaw, Russian court allows UniCredit to use bonds as collateral.

BHP Group Ltd faces setback in copper ambitions after failed takeover attempt; China considers record fine for PwC over Evergrande audits; Elon...