Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>From the superlative September (US$24.2 bn net buy), onshore investors' net Southbound buying dipped in October (US$11.9 bn) and November (US$15.7 bn). Xiaomi, Alibaba, PopMart and Meituan were bought most.</li>
<li>The most sold stocks during October-November were SMIC, Hua Hong Semi, Innovent Biologics. Enthusiasm for semiconductor and biotech seems to be cooling off, though we believe biotech focus should revive.</li>
<li>Investors' sustained preference is for stocks catering to domestic consumption that are able to adopt AI to improve productivity and expand their cash-generating businesses. Internet platforms fall in this silo.</li>
</ul>


From the superlative September (US$24.2 bn net buy), onshore investors' net Southbound buying dipped in October (US$11.9 bn) and November (US$15.7 bn). Xiaomi, Alibaba, PopMart and Meituan were bought most.
The most sold stocks during October-November were SMIC, Hua Hong Semi, Innovent Biologics. Enthusiasm for semiconductor and biotech seems to be cooling off, though we believe biotech focus should revive.
Investors' sustained preference is for stocks catering to domestic consumption that are able to adopt AI to improve productivity and expand their cash-generating businesses. Internet platforms fall in this silo.


Asian Equities: Southbound Zeal Dips; Some Established Themes Looking Tired, Others Rejuvenated.

<ul>
<li>In November, FIIs sold a stupendous US$22 bn Asian equities, the second highest in the past 6 years. Bulk of it was in Korea (US$9.7 bn) and Taiwan (US$12 bn). </li>
<li>Concerns about sustainability of AI capex and doubts about Fed rate trajectory were the key drivers of FIIs' worries. The latter also depressed the Asian currencies.</li>
<li>Study of last 6 years cumulative buying/selling reveals massive selling in Taiwan/Korea. Flows in these markets should recover the most as FIIs play catch-up. India is a more difficult call.</li>
</ul>


In November, FIIs sold a stupendous US$22 bn Asian equities, the second highest in the past 6 years. Bulk of it was in Korea (US$9.7 bn) and Taiwan (US$12 bn). 
Concerns about sustainability of AI capex and doubts about Fed rate trajectory were the key drivers of FIIs' worries. The latter also depressed the Asian currencies.
Study of last 6 years cumulative buying/selling reveals massive selling in Taiwan/Korea. Flows in these markets should recover the most as FIIs play catch-up. India is a more difficult call.


Asian Equities: Stupendous FII Selling in November; Long-Term Study Foreshadows Structural Recovery.

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Sichuan Kelun-Biotech announces Phase 3 trial success for ADC-Keytruda combination therapy in first-line lung cancer. ImmuneOnco received Phase 3 trial approval for IMM0306 lenalidomide combination for follicular lymphoma in China.</li>
<li>Otsuka received FDA accelerated approval of Voyxact for immunoglobulin A nephropathy. Eisai has completed FDA submission of Leqembi Iqlik subcutaneous autoinjector as a weekly starting dose for early Alzheimer’s disease.</li>
<li>Alteogen secures $15M milestone payment from Merck as Keytruda subcutaneous formulation gets EU approval. SK Biopharmaceuticals in-licenses second radiopharmaceutical candidate, which has potential to target clear cell renal cell carcinoma.  </li>
</ul>


Sichuan Kelun-Biotech announces Phase 3 trial success for ADC-Keytruda combination therapy in first-line lung cancer. ImmuneOnco received Phase 3 trial approval for IMM0306 lenalidomide combination for follicular lymphoma in China.
Otsuka received FDA accelerated approval of Voyxact for immunoglobulin A nephropathy. Eisai has completed FDA submission of Leqembi Iqlik subcutaneous autoinjector as a weekly starting dose for early Alzheimer’s disease.
Alteogen secures $15M milestone payment from Merck as Keytruda subcutaneous formulation gets EU approval. SK Biopharmaceuticals in-licenses second radiopharmaceutical candidate, which has potential to target clear cell renal cell carcinoma.  


APAC Healthcare Weekly (November 30) – Kelun Bio, ImmuneOnco, Otsuka, Eisai, Alteogen, SK Biopharma

<ul>
<li>Combination of concerns about Fed rate trajectory, AI capex monetization, Chinese growth slowdown and Japanese Yen carry trade unwinding brought the US and Asian markets 4-5% down since late October.</li>
<li>Expensive valuations are now justifiably correcting. Notwithstanding worries about a December cut, the interest rate trajectory remains resolutely downwards. Asian disinflation offers several central banks further room for monetary easing. </li>
<li>AI capex monetization worries will wax and wane. But Asian AI enablers' cash flows seem safe and valuations inexpensive. Corporate earnings environment is solid in US and recovering in Asia.</li>
</ul>


Combination of concerns about Fed rate trajectory, AI capex monetization, Chinese growth slowdown and Japanese Yen carry trade unwinding brought the US and Asian markets 4-5% down since late October.
Expensive valuations are now justifiably correcting. Notwithstanding worries about a December cut, the interest rate trajectory remains resolutely downwards. Asian disinflation offers several central banks further room for monetary easing. 
AI capex monetization worries will wax and wane. But Asian AI enablers' cash flows seem safe and valuations inexpensive. Corporate earnings environment is solid in US and recovering in Asia.


Asian Equities: A Correction, Not a Bear Market; Rates Still Falling and Earnings Are Catching Up

<ul>
<li>Breadth of Asian market-sectors with robust earnings estimate upgrades improved remarkably. We spot 24 with upgrades over the past 1-month, 3-months and 6-months. Couple of weeks ago there were 18.</li>
<li>The new sectors that joined the list from our previous study are Chinese technology services, Korean utilities, Indian energy, Malaysian consumer durables and financials and Philippines basic materials.</li>
<li>Across Asia, basic materials, financials and electronic technology are prominent earnings gainers. They are driving upgrades in the US also. The AI capex and base metal demand themes seem robust.</li>
</ul>


Breadth of Asian market-sectors with robust earnings estimate upgrades improved remarkably. We spot 24 with upgrades over the past 1-month, 3-months and 6-months. Couple of weeks ago there were 18.
The new sectors that joined the list from our previous study are Chinese technology services, Korean utilities, Indian energy, Malaysian consumer durables and financials and Philippines basic materials.
Across Asia, basic materials, financials and electronic technology are prominent earnings gainers. They are driving upgrades in the US also. The AI capex and base metal demand themes seem robust.


Asian Equities: Strong Step-Up in Earnings Environment. 24 Market-Sectors Show Robust EPS Upgrades

Mongolia
Insights on Mongolia

Asian Equities: Southbound Zeal Dips; Some Established Themes Looking Tired, Others Rejuvenated.

Southbound buying dipped in October-November. Focus remains on stocks catering to domestic consumption & AI adoption. Semiconductor & biotech zeal...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Asian Equities: Stupendous FII Selling in November; Long-Term Study Foreshadows Structural Recovery.

FIIs sold $22bn Asian equity in Nov, due to concerns about AI capex sustaining & Fed rate path. TW & KR sold the most. Expect recovery in KR, TW...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

APAC Healthcare Weekly (November 30) – Kelun Bio, ImmuneOnco, Otsuka, Eisai, Alteogen, SK Biopharma

Kelun Bio announces Phase 3 trial success for ADC-Keytruda combo in first-line lung cancer. Otsuka got FDA approval for IgAN drug. Alteogen secures...

Tina Banerjee

Asian Equities: A Correction, Not a Bear Market; Rates Still Falling and Earnings Are Catching Up

Markets bottomed out over 20-24 Nov. Since then S&P500 is up 5.2%, HSI is up 3.2% & KOSPI is up 4.2%. Predictably, the USD (DXY) is down c1%. The...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Asian Equities: Strong Step-Up in Earnings Environment. 24 Market-Sectors Show Robust EPS Upgrades

24 Asian market-sectors see EPS est upgrades over past 1-month, 3-month & 6-month. Couple of weeks ago there were 18. Basic materials, financials...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Asian Equities: Southbound Zeal Dips; Some Established Themes Looking Tired, Others Rejuvenated.

​Southbound buying dipped in October-November. Focus remains on stocks catering to domestic consumption & AI adoption. Semiconductor & biotech zeal...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Asian Equities: Stupendous FII Selling in November; Long-Term Study Foreshadows Structural Recovery.

​FIIs sold $22bn Asian equity in Nov, due to concerns about AI capex sustaining & Fed rate path. TW & KR sold the most. Expect recovery in KR, TW...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

APAC Healthcare Weekly (November 30) – Kelun Bio, ImmuneOnco, Otsuka, Eisai, Alteogen, SK Biopharma

Kelun Bio announces Phase 3 trial success for ADC-Keytruda combo in first-line lung cancer. Otsuka got FDA approval for IgAN drug. Alteogen secures...

Tina Banerjee

Asian Equities: A Correction, Not a Bear Market; Rates Still Falling and Earnings Are Catching Up

Markets bottomed out over 20-24 Nov. Since then S&P500 is up 5.2%, HSI is up 3.2% & KOSPI is up 4.2%. Predictably, the USD (DXY) is down c1%. The...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Asian Equities: Strong Step-Up in Earnings Environment. 24 Market-Sectors Show Robust EPS Upgrades

​24 Asian market-sectors see EPS est upgrades over past 1-month, 3-month & 6-month. Couple of weeks ago there were 18. Basic materials, financials...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Southbound buying dipped in October-November. Focus remains on stocks catering to domestic consumption & AI adoption. Semiconductor & biotech zeal...

FIIs sold $22bn Asian equity in Nov, due to concerns about AI capex sustaining & Fed rate path. TW & KR sold the most. Expect recovery in KR, TW...

24 Asian market-sectors see EPS est upgrades over past 1-month, 3-month & 6-month. Couple of weeks ago there were 18. Basic materials, financials...