Asian Economist

Kok Peng Chan

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>China’s low consumption ratio is driven by structural constraints—stagnant labour income, early and rapid household leverage, heavy debt burdens, declining workforce and persistent precautionary saving</li>
<li>Such constraints on household consumption mean recent policy announcements to expand overall domestic demand will take longer than expected to deliver a durable consumption-driven Chinese economy</li>
<li>China’s ten-year bond yield appears to recognise this reality, pricing in persistently weak nominal growth and subdued domestic demand rather than a consumption-driven reacceleration. It is now lower than Japan</li>
</ul>


China’s low consumption ratio is driven by structural constraints—stagnant labour income, early and rapid household leverage, heavy debt burdens, declining workforce and persistent precautionary saving
Such constraints on household consumption mean recent policy announcements to expand overall domestic demand will take longer than expected to deliver a durable consumption-driven Chinese economy
China’s ten-year bond yield appears to recognise this reality, pricing in persistently weak nominal growth and subdued domestic demand rather than a consumption-driven reacceleration. It is now lower than Japan


China’s Consumption Push: Will It Take Off?

Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The 2025 vintage of "5 High Conviction Ideas" showed a positive return for all five picks.</li>
<li>Our best performer was <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arras-minerals-corp-0103ceb3-3087-43a7-8e88-cf54392e4429" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:41542:1" rel="noopener">Arras Minerals (ARK CN)</a>, which was up +150%, closely followed by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/solaris-resources-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40176:1" rel="noopener">Solaris Resources (SLS CN)</a>, which gained 139% for the year. </li>
<li>Our 2025 vintage was heavily copper-focused, our 2026 new favorite list is more diverse across sectors and regions.</li>
</ul>


The 2025 vintage of "5 High Conviction Ideas" showed a positive return for all five picks.
Our best performer was Arras Minerals (ARK CN), which was up +150%, closely followed by Solaris Resources (SLS CN), which gained 139% for the year. 
Our 2025 vintage was heavily copper-focused, our 2026 new favorite list is more diverse across sectors and regions.


Overview of My Winners and Losers in 2025...and 5 High Conviction Ideas Going Into 2026

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>EM allocations in Global funds have broken out of a multi-year range, reaching the highest level since 2019 as underweights narrow.</li>
<li>The move is led by Taiwan, China &amp; HK, and South Korea, with strong inflows and rising fund participation.</li>
<li>Despite the shift, EM exposure remains shallow and concentrated, making higher allocations a clear point of differentiation.</li>
</ul>


EM allocations in Global funds have broken out of a multi-year range, reaching the highest level since 2019 as underweights narrow.
The move is led by Taiwan, China &amp; HK, and South Korea, with strong inflows and rising fund participation.
Despite the shift, EM exposure remains shallow and concentrated, making higher allocations a clear point of differentiation.


Breaking the Range: EM Reclaims Attention in Global Portfolios

<ul>
<li>The Materials sector stands out as a key recovery candidate: low positioning but strong positive rotation across the GEM active universe.</li>
<li>Early inflows are being driven by China &amp; HK and South Africa, with rising fund participation and narrowing underweights.</li>
<li>Stock-Level rotation is visible in Gold Fields, Zijin Mining, and Anglo American, alongside a growing set of lightly held rising stars.</li>
</ul>


The Materials sector stands out as a key recovery candidate: low positioning but strong positive rotation across the GEM active universe.
Early inflows are being driven by China &amp; HK and South Africa, with rising fund participation and narrowing underweights.
Stock-Level rotation is visible in Gold Fields, Zijin Mining, and Anglo American, alongside a growing set of lightly held rising stars.


Independent Investment Research, The IDEA!

The IDEA!

Independent Investment Research

The Idea-Driven Equities Analyses company (the IDEA!) is an employee-owned boutique providing independent investment research and financial consultancy services with a clear focus on the Benelux countries. The company was founded in the summer of 2007 by Henk Slotboom and Maarten Verbeek, both with more than 35 years of professional experience in the financial sector. The IDEA! differentiates itself by focusing on adding value through self-initiated in-depth, idea-driven investment research, as well as by bespoke research assignments for institutional investors, hedge funds and private equity. In addition, we provide market intelligence, strategic research and – together with our business partners – consultancy services to businesses. In case you are interested in receiving more information, a sample of our products or an introductory meeting, please send a message to info@theidea.nl.

Equity Bottom-Up

Allegro.eu SA operates shopping e-commerce platform. The Company offers products in categories such as automotive, fashion, home and garden, electronics, books and collectibles, and health and beauty. Allegro.eu serves customers in Europe.

<ul><li>In this edition: • Arcadis | Ms Heather Polinsky to take over Mr Alan Brookes as CEO • bnode (bpostgroup) | Belgian federal government agrees on revision rules for night labour • E-commerce & Logistics | EU to Impose 10% Import Duty on Low-Value Chinese Parcels</li></ul>

In this edition: • Arcadis | Ms Heather Polinsky to take over Mr Alan Brookes as CEO • bnode (bpostgroup) | Belgian federal government agrees on revision rules for night labour • E-commerce & Logistics | EU to Impose 10% Import Duty on Low-Value Chinese Parcels

What's New(s) in Amsterdam - 12 December (Arcadis | bnode (bpostgroup) | E-commerce & Logistics)