Decoding the Future of MENA Financial Markets, MENA Market Lab

Denis Collot

Decoding the Future of MENA Financial Markets

MENA Market Lab

Decoding the future of Middle East and North Africa Financial markets

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>GCC FX markets in a quiet torpor with Eid holidays and Trump’s prevarications.              </li>
<li>Riyad Bank’s chief economist says deposit growth supports credit growth.</li>
<li>Dubai’s property sales rebound in April.</li>
</ul>


GCC FX markets in a quiet torpor with Eid holidays and Trump’s prevarications.              
Riyad Bank’s chief economist says deposit growth supports credit growth.
Dubai’s property sales rebound in April.


Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

<ul>
<li>Eastern Europe has quietly become a consensus overweight among active EM managers, with 60.6% of funds positioned above the iShares MSCI EM ETF benchmark, the third most overweighted sub-region globally.</li>
<li>Eastern Europe's reliance on Financials is the highest of any sub-region, concentrated in just a handful of stocks.</li>
<li>Breadth of the investable universe remains a structural constraint, with Eastern Europe invested across only 149 companies, comparable to non-benchmark Developed Europe and far behind the EM Big Four's 2,336.</li>
</ul>


Eastern Europe has quietly become a consensus overweight among active EM managers, with 60.6% of funds positioned above the iShares MSCI EM ETF benchmark, the third most overweighted sub-region globally.
Eastern Europe's reliance on Financials is the highest of any sub-region, concentrated in just a handful of stocks.
Breadth of the investable universe remains a structural constraint, with Eastern Europe invested across only 149 companies, comparable to non-benchmark Developed Europe and far behind the EM Big Four's 2,336.


Global Mobility/Transport, Equity Long-Short

Mo Aziz

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>SOH transits collapsed 46% WoW in Week 21 to just 34 vessels; over half now routed via Iran’s dictated corridor, with dark traffic masking the true severity of the disruption.</li>
<li>Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA) has been OFAC-designated, escalating legal and sanctions risk for owners, operators, and banks coordinating with Tehran on safe passage.</li>
<li>India’s $1.5bn Bharat Maritime Insurance Pool goes live, filling the war-risk cover gap left by IG P&amp;I clubs — a model other Gulf-exposed nations may urgently replicate.</li>
</ul>


SOH transits collapsed 46% WoW in Week 21 to just 34 vessels; over half now routed via Iran’s dictated corridor, with dark traffic masking the true severity of the disruption.
Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA) has been OFAC-designated, escalating legal and sanctions risk for owners, operators, and banks coordinating with Tehran on safe passage.
India’s $1.5bn Bharat Maritime Insurance Pool goes live, filling the war-risk cover gap left by IG P&amp;I clubs — a model other Gulf-exposed nations may urgently replicate.


Strait of Hormuz: Traffic Collapse Deepens, PGSA Sanctioned, India Fills the Insurance Void

Equity & Credit Research

Duncan Chan

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Potential de-escalation may compress risk premiums, but Treasury yields around 4.5–5.0% still compete with equities, suggesting broader participation may remain selective near term.</li>
<li>Aluminium increasingly stands out as inventories declined approximately 7–8% and physical conditions tightened, while copper remains broadly consistent with surplus expectations.</li>
<li>Evidence remains more supportive for energy security and infrastructure themes, including uranium, AI infrastructure and offshore rigs, while coal and lithium still require clearer signs of tightening.</li>
</ul>


Potential de-escalation may compress risk premiums, but Treasury yields around 4.5–5.0% still compete with equities, suggesting broader participation may remain selective near term.
Aluminium increasingly stands out as inventories declined approximately 7–8% and physical conditions tightened, while copper remains broadly consistent with surplus expectations.
Evidence remains more supportive for energy security and infrastructure themes, including uranium, AI infrastructure and offshore rigs, while coal and lithium still require clearer signs of tightening.


US-Iran De-Escalation: Looking Beyond Risk Premiums

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>Huawei introduced the “Tau Scaling Law” under which chip designers optimise for the time taken for elements of a chip to communicate, rather than for the space between transistors. </li>
<li>Huawei’s next-generation Kirin SoC, due autumn 2026, will be the first commercial chip to fully adopt the resulting architecture, which Huawei is calling “LogicFolding.”</li>
<li>Huawei chips designed under this framework will deliver transistor density equivalent to a 1.4nm process by 2031, three years after TSMC’s publicly stated 2028 timeline for its A14 (1.4nm) node.</li>
</ul>


Huawei introduced the “Tau Scaling Law” under which chip designers optimise for the time taken for elements of a chip to communicate, rather than for the space between transistors. 
Huawei’s next-generation Kirin SoC, due autumn 2026, will be the first commercial chip to fully adopt the resulting architecture, which Huawei is calling “LogicFolding.”
Huawei chips designed under this framework will deliver transistor density equivalent to a 1.4nm process by 2031, three years after TSMC’s publicly stated 2028 timeline for its A14 (1.4nm) node.


Huawei’s “Tau Scaling Law” and “LogicFolding”. Desperation, A Genuine Breakthrough Or Both?

Qatar
Insights on Qatar

Middle East FX (May 29th 2026)

GCC FX markets in a quiet torpor with Eid holidays and Trump’s prevarications.Riyad Bank’s chief economist says deposit growth supports credit growth.

MENA Market Lab

Eastern Europe: The Quiet Overweight

Active EM managers have built a consensus overweight in Eastern Europe, but beneath the headline numbers lies a concentrated Financials trade...

Steven Holden

Strait of Hormuz: Traffic Collapse Deepens, PGSA Sanctioned, India Fills the Insurance Void

SOH transits decline sharply, majority now through Iran's corridor; PGSA OFAC-designated, increasing legal risk; India's new insurance pool fills...

Mo Aziz

US-Iran De-Escalation: Looking Beyond Risk Premiums

Re-sharing as recent market developments continue to raise the question of whether fading geopolitical risk premiums alone are enough to support...

Duncan Chan

Huawei’s “Tau Scaling Law” and “LogicFolding”. Desperation, A Genuine Breakthrough Or Both?

Huawei chips designed under this framework will deliver transistor density equivalent to a 1.4nm process by 2031, three years after TSMC’s publicly...

William Keating

Middle East FX (May 29th 2026)

GCC FX markets in a quiet torpor with Eid holidays and Trump’s prevarications.Riyad Bank’s chief economist says deposit growth supports credit growth.

MENA Market Lab

Eastern Europe: The Quiet Overweight

Active EM managers have built a consensus overweight in Eastern Europe, but beneath the headline numbers lies a concentrated Financials trade...

Steven Holden

Strait of Hormuz: Traffic Collapse Deepens, PGSA Sanctioned, India Fills the Insurance Void

​SOH transits decline sharply, majority now through Iran's corridor; PGSA OFAC-designated, increasing legal risk; India's new insurance pool fills...

Mo Aziz

US-Iran De-Escalation: Looking Beyond Risk Premiums

Re-sharing as recent market developments continue to raise the question of whether fading geopolitical risk premiums alone are enough to support...

Duncan Chan

Huawei’s “Tau Scaling Law” and “LogicFolding”. Desperation, A Genuine Breakthrough Or Both?

Huawei chips designed under this framework will deliver transistor density equivalent to a 1.4nm process by 2031, three years after TSMC’s publicly...

William Keating

SOH transits decline sharply, majority now through Iran's corridor; PGSA OFAC-designated, increasing legal risk; India's new insurance pool fills...