Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>DC company share prices are rolling over, foreshadowing increasing pressure on their hyperscaler customers.  Since the July swoon in semiconductor stocks, the DC sector has underperformed both hyperscalers and semiconductors.</li>
<li>DC players face strong headwinds on multiple fronts, including high leverage/circular financing, supply chain delays, public opposition, and questions about aggressive forecasts of future compute demand.</li>
<li>Leverage is the most prominent risk in the DC sector, with questions looming about completion dates and customers' ability to meet their contracted offtake agreements.</li>
</ul>


DC company share prices are rolling over, foreshadowing increasing pressure on their hyperscaler customers.  Since the July swoon in semiconductor stocks, the DC sector has underperformed both hyperscalers and semiconductors.
DC players face strong headwinds on multiple fronts, including high leverage/circular financing, supply chain delays, public opposition, and questions about aggressive forecasts of future compute demand.
Leverage is the most prominent risk in the DC sector, with questions looming about completion dates and customers' ability to meet their contracted offtake agreements.


DATA CENTER SECTOR: From the Tip of the Spear to Canary in the Coal Mine

Director, Sentiment Matters

Lars Kreckel

Director

The mood of the market, mapped and decoded

Sentiment Matters

Investor sentiment is the overall mood of investors - how bullish or bearish they are on a market or asset.

Sentiment is part of every investor’s investment process. Whether for macro investors, stock pickers, or thematic investors, it matters whether a position is consensus or contrarian.

<ul>
<li>
Buy Side Sentiment Tracker: we aggregate asset-allocation views from 54 top asset managers across 73 assets, based on 1,400+ individual views.</li>
<li>
Bullish, but not extreme: Risk appetite is high and rising, yet equity downgrades and resilient sovereign demand show the Buy Side is far from universally risk-on.</li>
<li>
Max Contrarian: Infrastructure, Industrial Metals and Gold are most popular; Swiss Franc, Cash and Consumer Staples are least popular.</li>
</ul>



Buy Side Sentiment Tracker: we aggregate asset-allocation views from 54 top asset managers across 73 assets, based on 1,400+ individual views.

Bullish, but not extreme: Risk appetite is high and rising, yet equity downgrades and resilient sovereign demand show the Buy Side is far from universally risk-on.

Max Contrarian: Infrastructure, Industrial Metals and Gold are most popular; Swiss Franc, Cash and Consumer Staples are least popular.


Sentiment Matters: Buy Side Sentiment Tracker - October 2026

Equity Capital Markets and Advisory Business, Auctus Advisors

Auctus Advisors

Equity Capital Markets and Advisory Business

Auctus Advisors is a specialist Equity Capital Markets and Advisory business with a focus in the Energy Sector. The partners have complementary skill sets, with decades of experience across Equity Capital Markets, Investment Banking and the Energy industry. We have worked at Société Générale, Canaccord Capital, BMO Capital Markets and Schlumberger. Most recently we have worked together for many years at GMP FirstEnergy. Auctus has been set up at the beginning of a new decade in which we see significant opportunities in the Energy space. Globally, demand for energy is at record levels and continues to grow. Conversely, investment in traditional energy sources has been severely constrained. We believe this imbalance creates opportunities for both companies and investors. Auctus provides Corporate Broking, Equity Research and Investment Banking services.

Equity Bottom-Up

Panoro Energy ASA explores for oil and natural gas in Brazil, Gabon, and Nigeria . The Company operates offshore in the Camamu-Almada and Santos basins.

<ul>
<li>Five corporate offers have been made for listed producers so far in 2025–26: Capricorn, GeoPark, Genel, Pharos and BlueNord.</li>
<li>Capricorn and Pharos attracted competing bidders.</li>
<li>In addition, Maurel &amp; Prom has agreed to acquire Gran Tierra’s Colombia and Ecuador business for US$1.33 bn, and Ithaca is buying Suncor’s offshore Canada assets for US$860–1,110 mm.</li>
</ul>


Five corporate offers have been made for listed producers so far in 2025–26: Capricorn, GeoPark, Genel, Pharos and BlueNord.
Capricorn and Pharos attracted competing bidders.
In addition, Maurel &amp; Prom has agreed to acquire Gran Tierra’s Colombia and Ecuador business for US$1.33 bn, and Ithaca is buying Suncor’s offshore Canada assets for US$860–1,110 mm.


Panoro Energy ASA (OSE: PEN): Might Panoro be next in line?

<ul>
<li>
Treasuries Sentiment has turned sharply bearish, but not extreme. The SMA sits around the 30th percentile, still above its historical buy threshold.</li>
<li>
The underlying picture is mixed. Momentum and some speculative positioning are very bearish, while buy-side sentiment, options, analyst expectations and flows remain closer to neutral.</li>
<li>
This is not broad capitulation. Price action has been persistently poor rather than disorderly, leaving room for sentiment to deteriorate further before a stronger contrarian signal emerges.</li>
</ul>



Treasuries Sentiment has turned sharply bearish, but not extreme. The SMA sits around the 30th percentile, still above its historical buy threshold.

The underlying picture is mixed. Momentum and some speculative positioning are very bearish, while buy-side sentiment, options, analyst expectations and flows remain closer to neutral.

This is not broad capitulation. Price action has been persistently poor rather than disorderly, leaving room for sentiment to deteriorate further before a stronger contrarian signal emerges.


Sentiment Matters: US Treasuries Bearish, But Not Capitulation

Equity Long-Short

Mo Aziz

<ul>
<li>
The bond sell-off is global, not rerouted: 10-year yields are up 66-141bp in 12 months across Japan, Germany, the UK and the US. No developed market bond market gave refuge.</li>
<li>
The cash pile is a myth. US money funds are down US$90bn from their 2 Sep peak; equity funds took in US$79bn in the week to 16 Sep.</li>
<li>
Payrolls missed (+29k vs 90k), yet the 10-year closed at 5.27%. Gold broke the US$4,200 kill switch: NEUTRAL. Own TIPS in thirds; hedge dollar exposure if DXY fails at 102.13.</li>
</ul>



The bond sell-off is global, not rerouted: 10-year yields are up 66-141bp in 12 months across Japan, Germany, the UK and the US. No developed market bond market gave refuge.

The cash pile is a myth. US money funds are down US$90bn from their 2 Sep peak; equity funds took in US$79bn in the week to 16 Sep.

Payrolls missed (+29k vs 90k), yet the 10-year closed at 5.27%. Gold broke the US$4,200 kill switch: NEUTRAL. Own TIPS in thirds; hedge dollar exposure if DXY fails at 102.13.


Asset Allocation Strategy: Bond Sell-Off, No Cash Pile, Gold Stopped Out, TIPS Over the U.S. Dollar