Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas, Azabu Research

Michael Allen

Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas

Azabu Research

Azabu Research is a publishing and consulting firm focused on distressed equities in the Japanese market. We specialize in turnaround strategies, corporate combinations, divestitures, and restructuring.

Publisher of the Tokyo Turnaround Letter, which conducts the most thorough research possible of publicly available information, including forensic tests for fraudulent overstatement of assets and understatement of liabilities, as well as rigorous market and industry analysis to assess the underlying strengths of the company’s products or services, the appropriateness of the company’s turnaround strategy, and the skill of its current management team. The average length of a report exceeds 25 pages of text and tables, excluding any disclosures or executive summaries.

We have more than 30 years of experience in applying this process to distressed equities in Japan. Additionally, subscribers have free access to detailed, yet easily navigated earnings models for the target company as well as the top five comparable companies, and unlimited access to the analyst for follow-up questions.

Azabu Research also conducts be-spoke research on a project basis, and provides consulting services to companies looking to restructure, divest, make acquisitions, go public, or improve investor sentiment toward their stock.

Independent Research and Consulting Firm

Equity Bottom-Up

SUMITOMO CHEMICAL COMPANY, LIMITED manufactures chemical products.  The Company specializes in basic chemicals, petrochemicals, fine chemicals such as photo-resists, pharmaceutical intermediates, and agrochemicals.  Sumitomo Chemical operates manufacturing plants and sales offices worldwide.

<ul>
<li>Sumitomo Chemical issued new guidance in-line for 3/24 and xx% ahead of consensus for 3/25 EBIT, yet, the shares promptly declined by 10%.</li>
<li>Traders were probably spooked by the company’s booking of ¥340bn in impairments that was ¥200bn more than published consensus, but we argue that this was more than already priced in.</li>
<li>The only reasonable explanation for the reaction is that the market doesn't believe the new guidance for 3/25. This could prove to be a huge mistake.</li>
</ul>


Sumitomo Chemical issued new guidance in-line for 3/24 and xx% ahead of consensus for 3/25 EBIT, yet, the shares promptly declined by 10%.
Traders were probably spooked by the company’s booking of ¥340bn in impairments that was ¥200bn more than published consensus, but we argue that this was more than already priced in.
The only reasonable explanation for the reaction is that the market doesn't believe the new guidance for 3/25. This could prove to be a huge mistake.


Sumitomo Chemical (4005): To Believe Or Not To Believe, That Is the Question

Product Marketing Manager, Criat

Raghav Chandra Mathur

Product Marketing Manager

Next-Generation Credit Analytics Provider

Criat

Criat specializes in new-generation data-driven credit analytics. Leveraging our industry-leading DeepCredit analytical technologies, we produce daily-updated forward-looking credit assessment and valuation to help financial institutions stay ahead of risks. Coupled with use-case-driven applications, we extract insights, answer questions and enable smarter credit decisions.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Insurers domiciled in Advanced Asian Economies have reaped the benefits of the higher-for-longer interest rate environment that has buoyed profitability for the sub-sector, even though operational headwinds and policy uncertainty remain key challenges for the sector in the latter half of the year.</li><li>Suffice to say the trend in Insurers’ credit risk profiles, measured using Criat’s Credit Cycle Indices (CCCIs), has been non-homogenous across the continent with firms domiciled in economies such as South Korea and Hong Kong facing a substantially higher risk than those domiciled in Singapore, Japan, and Taiwan.</li><li>Strong net investment returns over the past year have helped boost profitability for most of the sub-sector that has increased its exposure to government securities. </li></ul>

Insurers domiciled in Advanced Asian Economies have reaped the benefits of the higher-for-longer interest rate environment that has buoyed profitability for the sub-sector, even though operational headwinds and policy uncertainty remain key challenges for the sector in the latter half of the year.Suffice to say the trend in Insurers’ credit risk profiles, measured using Criat’s Credit Cycle Indices (CCCIs), has been non-homogenous across the continent with firms domiciled in economies such as South Korea and Hong Kong facing a substantially higher risk than those domiciled in Singapore, Japan, and Taiwan.Strong net investment returns over the past year have helped boost profitability for most of the sub-sector that has increased its exposure to government securities. 

Leaders and Laggards in Advanced Asia-Domiciled Insurance Sector

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Q1 Performance Analysis for active Global EM funds.  Country/Sector/Stock Positioning relative to benchmark for Global funds</li>
<li>Spotlight on Indonesia activity among Asia Ex-Japan investors.  Sector Dispersion in USA funds</li>
<li>Extreme Stock Positioning in UK Small/Midcap funds. Ownership Trends in the Financials sector among MSCI China funds.</li>
</ul>


Q1 Performance Analysis for active Global EM funds.  Country/Sector/Stock Positioning relative to benchmark for Global funds
Spotlight on Indonesia activity among Asia Ex-Japan investors.  Sector Dispersion in USA funds
Extreme Stock Positioning in UK Small/Midcap funds. Ownership Trends in the Financials sector among MSCI China funds.


Crypto Research and Data, Delphi Digital

Delphi Digital

Crypto Research and Data

Institutional-Grade Crypto Research & Data

Delphi Digital seeks to produce unbiased, actionable content for our clients on critical themes affecting digital assets and distributed ledger technology. Our team is committed to providing investors and institutions with key insights through a diverse suite of products including individual project analysis, bespoke research, and tailored consulting services.

Crypto

Bitcoin Pro is a powerful trading system based on artificial intelligence (AI) technologies. The robot trades bitcoin volatility by betting on BTC prices relative to other currencies.

<ul>
<li>
BTC Spot ETFs Unlock Institutional Capital: Explore the impact of Bitcoin Spot ETFs, opening doors to institutional investment.</li>
<li>
Market Insights Drive BTC Performance: Understand BTC's resilience and trajectory through market dynamics and performance analysis.</li>
<li>
Token Unlocks Shape Market Dynamics: Stay ahead of market shifts by monitoring upcoming token unlocks.</li>
</ul>



BTC Spot ETFs Unlock Institutional Capital: Explore the impact of Bitcoin Spot ETFs, opening doors to institutional investment.

Market Insights Drive BTC Performance: Understand BTC's resilience and trajectory through market dynamics and performance analysis.

Token Unlocks Shape Market Dynamics: Stay ahead of market shifts by monitoring upcoming token unlocks.


TORIDOLL Holdings Corporation / Equity Bottom-Up

TORIDOLL Holdings Corporation operates a variety of restaurants such as skewered grill chicken, Japanese noodle, ramen noodle, Japanese-style pancake, and pasta restaurants.  The Company operates its business at food courts in shopping centers, stations, highway rest areas, and suburbs.

<ul>
<li>Macro trends for restaurant chains are all negative: Food prices rising faster than restaurant unit prices, part-time wages rising faster than full-time.</li>
<li>Toridoll’s same store sales resuming long-term underperformance trend that was broken only briefly during the pandemic.</li>
<li>Stock trades at 3x the market average PBR, despite merely average RoE. Technical support has broken down.</li>
</ul>


Macro trends for restaurant chains are all negative: Food prices rising faster than restaurant unit prices, part-time wages rising faster than full-time.
Toridoll’s same store sales resuming long-term underperformance trend that was broken only briefly during the pandemic.
Stock trades at 3x the market average PBR, despite merely average RoE. Technical support has broken down.


Toridoll (3397): Restaurant Chain on a Ledge

Smorgasbord of free to read Insights on Smartkarma

Unpaywalled Insights
Smorgasbord of free to read Insights on Smartkarma

Sumitomo Chemical (4005): To Believe Or Not To Believe, That Is the Question

When Sumitomo Chemical announced a JPY200bn increase in impairment losses, the market was already discounting twice that much. More positive...

Michael Allen

Leaders and Laggards in Advanced Asia-Domiciled Insurance Sector

Insurers domiciled in Advanced Asian Economies have reaped the benefits of the higher-for-longer interest rate environment that has buoyed...

Criat

New Release: Fund Positioning Chart Pack

The latest trends in active equity fund positioning, from Indonesian activity among Asia Ex-Japan funds to sector dispersion among active US funds.

Steven Holden

Bitcoin Battles ETF Outflows

Bitcoin Spot ETFs are attracting institutional capital, market insights drive BTC performance, and upcoming token unlocks are shaping market...

Delphi Digital

Toridoll (3397): Restaurant Chain on a Ledge

Stock trades at 3x the market PBR despite consistently average RoE. Even the slightest disappointment could send the stock tumbling, and now, macro...

Michael Allen

Sumitomo Chemical (4005): To Believe Or Not To Believe, That Is the Question

When Sumitomo Chemical announced a JPY200bn increase in impairment losses, the market was already discounting twice that much. More positive...

Michael Allen

Leaders and Laggards in Advanced Asia-Domiciled Insurance Sector

Insurers domiciled in Advanced Asian Economies have reaped the benefits of the higher-for-longer interest rate environment that has buoyed...

Criat

New Release: Fund Positioning Chart Pack

The latest trends in active equity fund positioning, from Indonesian activity among Asia Ex-Japan funds to sector dispersion among active US funds.

Steven Holden

Bitcoin Battles ETF Outflows

​Bitcoin Spot ETFs are attracting institutional capital, market insights drive BTC performance, and upcoming token unlocks are shaping market...

Delphi Digital

Toridoll (3397): Restaurant Chain on a Ledge

Stock trades at 3x the market PBR despite consistently average RoE. Even the slightest disappointment could send the stock tumbling, and now, macro...

Michael Allen

Bitcoin Spot ETFs are attracting institutional capital, market insights drive BTC performance, and upcoming token unlocks are shaping market...