Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. Ltd / Event-Driven

Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. Ltd (SOL AU)

<ul>
<li>There is, or perhaps, was, imbedded value via the cross-holding. However, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/washington-h-soul-pattinson-and-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6054:1" rel="noopener">Soul Patts (SOL AU)</a> &amp; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/brickworks-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2726:1" rel="noopener">Brickworks (BKW AU)</a>'s combined market cap has increased 18% or A$3.1bn since announcing their merger.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/furukawa-battery-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6513:1" rel="noopener">Furukawa Battery (6937 JP)</a> is a VERY low-priced MBO-like transaction. The pricing process is unacceptable. It is a take-under. It is BAD process. But it'll get done.</li>
<li>For a company that has consistently spilled red ink at the stub level, there is no justification why <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pccw-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:873:1" rel="noopener">PCCW Ltd (8 HK)</a> would/should trade at a NAV premium.</li>
</ul>


There is, or perhaps, was, imbedded value via the cross-holding. However, Soul Patts (SOL AU) &amp; Brickworks (BKW AU)'s combined market cap has increased 18% or A$3.1bn since announcing their merger.

Furukawa Battery (6937 JP) is a VERY low-priced MBO-like transaction. The pricing process is unacceptable. It is a take-under. It is BAD process. But it'll get done.
For a company that has consistently spilled red ink at the stub level, there is no justification why PCCW Ltd (8 HK) would/should trade at a NAV premium.


Last Week In Event SPACE: Soul Patts/Brickworks, Furukawa Battery, PCCW, TPG Telecom

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indofood-sukses-makmur-tbk-p" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1053:1" rel="noopener">Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk P (INDF IJ)</a>'s simple ratio (INDF/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indofood-cbp-sukses-makmur-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17651:1" rel="noopener">Indofood CBP Sukses (ICBP IJ)</a>) is at a seven-year-plus high, and the implied stub a three-year high. </li>
<li>Preceding my comments on the Indofood and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/first-pacific-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:173:1" rel="noopener">First Pacific Co (142 HK)</a> are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>



Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk P (INDF IJ)'s simple ratio (INDF/Indofood CBP Sukses (ICBP IJ)) is at a seven-year-plus high, and the implied stub a three-year high. 
Preceding my comments on the Indofood and First Pacific Co (142 HK) are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


StubWorld: Indofood (INDF IJ) Trading Rich To Indofood CBP Sukses (ICBP IJ)

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Equity Bottom-Up

Indofood Sukses Makmur / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Strong volume growth from ICBP and Bogasari, higher CPO prices, and lower fertilizer costs supported INDF's solid 9M24 performance.</li><li>We project FY24/25F core profit growth of 5.8% and 9.3% yoy, driven by ICBP and robust performance in the agribusiness division. </li><li>We expect INDF will benefit from lower fertilizer costs until 1H25. We maintain a Buy rating with a higher TP of Rp8,800 (FY25F PE of 6.6x).</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Strong volume growth from ICBP and Bogasari, higher CPO prices, and lower fertilizer costs supported INDF's solid 9M24 performance.We project FY24/25F core profit growth of 5.8% and 9.3% yoy, driven by ICBP and robust performance in the agribusiness division. We expect INDF will benefit from lower fertilizer costs until 1H25. We maintain a Buy rating with a higher TP of Rp8,800 (FY25F PE of 6.6x).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Indofood Sukses Makmur - CPO Price Stability and Volume Growth Underpin FY24-25F Outlook

<ul><li>Following the solid 9M24 results, we raise our FY24-25F revenue growth forecast to 8% yoy, primarily driven by stronger volume expectation.</li><li>We also expect demand from overseas markets, coupled with stable margins, to support FY24/25F core profit growth of 7%/11% yoy.</li><li>Maintain Buy rating with a higher TP of Rp14,000. We expect positive momentum to continue into 4Q24 and 1Q25, backed by Eid festivities.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Following the solid 9M24 results, we raise our FY24-25F revenue growth forecast to 8% yoy, primarily driven by stronger volume expectation.We also expect demand from overseas markets, coupled with stable margins, to support FY24/25F core profit growth of 7%/11% yoy.Maintain Buy rating with a higher TP of Rp14,000. We expect positive momentum to continue into 4Q24 and 1Q25, backed by Eid festivities.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur - Positive Outlook for FY24-25F Intact...

<ul><li>2Q24/1H24 core profit beat was driven by solid volume growth, especially from Noodles in both domestic and overseas markets. </li><li>We raise a 4.9%/3.2% upward revision due to higher volume and margins; expect high margins to sustain amid soft input prices.</li><li>With an undemanding valuation and steady core profit growth, we reiterate our Buy rating with higher TP of Rp13,400 (FY25F PE of 13.8x).</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

2Q24/1H24 core profit beat was driven by solid volume growth, especially from Noodles in both domestic and overseas markets. We raise a 4.9%/3.2% upward revision due to higher volume and margins; expect high margins to sustain amid soft input prices.With an undemanding valuation and steady core profit growth, we reiterate our Buy rating with higher TP of Rp13,400 (FY25F PE of 13.8x).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur - 1H24 Earnings Beat from Solid Volume Growth Across Markets

Indonesia

PT Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk is an Indonesian multinational consumer goods company specializing in the production and distribution of processed food products across the entire supply chain. Its core business activities include consumer branded products like instant noodles (e.g., Indomie), dairy, snacks, and food seasonings; flour milling (Bogasari); agribusiness such as palm oil and sugar; and distribution networks. The company is headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia, and was incorporated on August 14, 1990.

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Indofood Sukses Makmur (INDF IJ)

Last Week In Event SPACE: Soul Patts/Brickworks, Furukawa Battery, PCCW, TPG Telecom

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

StubWorld: Indofood (INDF IJ) Trading Rich To Indofood CBP Sukses (ICBP IJ)

Tricky trade. I'd unwind any stub here purely on optics. The pushback is the stub ops are outperforming. I'd be inclined to go outright long near...

David Blennerhassett

Indofood Sukses Makmur - CPO Price Stability and Volume Growth Underpin FY24-25F Outlook

Strong volume growth from ICBP and Bogasari, higher CPO prices, and lower fertilizer costs supported INDF's solid 9M24 performance.

BRI Danareksa Research

Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur - Positive Outlook for FY24-25F Intact...

Following the solid 9M24 results, we raise our FY24-25F revenue growth forecast to 8% yoy, primarily driven by stronger volume expectation.

BRI Danareksa Research

Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur - 1H24 Earnings Beat from Solid Volume Growth Across Markets

2Q24/1H24 core profit beat was driven by solid volume growth, especially from Noodles in both domestic and overseas markets.

BRI Danareksa Research

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