IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cimc-vehicles-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28012:1" rel="noopener">CIMC Vehicle Group Co Ltd (1839 HK)</a> has despatched the offer document, and the H Share HK$7.50 offer is open. The H Shareholders class vote is on 18 April.  </li>
<li>The key condition is approval by at least 75% of independent H Shareholders (&lt;10% of all independent H Shareholders rejection) along with a 90% minimum acceptance condition.  </li>
<li>The de-rating of peers and ongoing US investigation favours meeting the 90% threshold. However, the dire minority AGM/EGM participation rates suggest that retail apathy may derail the offer. </li>
</ul>



CIMC Vehicle Group Co Ltd (1839 HK) has despatched the offer document, and the H Share HK$7.50 offer is open. The H Shareholders class vote is on 18 April.  
The key condition is approval by at least 75% of independent H Shareholders (&lt;10% of all independent H Shareholders rejection) along with a 90% minimum acceptance condition.  
The de-rating of peers and ongoing US investigation favours meeting the 90% threshold. However, the dire minority AGM/EGM participation rates suggest that retail apathy may derail the offer. 


CIMC Vehicles (1839 HK): Vote on 18 April as Uncertainty Lingers on the 90% Acceptance Threshold

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cimc-vehicles-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28012:1" rel="noopener">CIMC Vehicle Group Co Ltd (1839 HK)</a> announced the H Share buyback offer, excluding CIMC’s shares, is at HK$7.50, a 16.5% premium to the undisturbed price. The offer is final.</li>
<li>The key condition is approval by at least 75% of independent H Shareholders (&lt;10% of all independent H Shareholders rejection) along with a 90% minimum acceptance condition.  </li>
<li>Excluding the irrevocables, the 90% threshold requires an independent H Shareholder acceptance rate of 77.7%, which could be challenging due to a light offer. Risk/reward unfavourable. </li>
</ul>



CIMC Vehicle Group Co Ltd (1839 HK) announced the H Share buyback offer, excluding CIMC’s shares, is at HK$7.50, a 16.5% premium to the undisturbed price. The offer is final.
The key condition is approval by at least 75% of independent H Shareholders (&lt;10% of all independent H Shareholders rejection) along with a 90% minimum acceptance condition.  
Excluding the irrevocables, the 90% threshold requires an independent H Shareholder acceptance rate of 77.7%, which could be challenging due to a light offer. Risk/reward unfavourable. 


CIMC Vehicles (1839 HK): Min Acceptance Condition a Risk for the Final HK$7.50 Offer

Research from Asian Century Stocks, Asian Century Stocks

Michael Fritzell

Research from Asian Century Stocks

Providing financial journalism in the Asia-Pacific

Asian Century Stocks

Asian Century Stocks is a newsletter providing financial journalism for companies and stocks in the Asia-Pacific. 
The Asian Century Stocks logotype “百” stands for “one hundred” or a “century”. The economic centre of gravity is moving towards Asia. Yet most global investors are missing out.

Forensic Accounting

<ul>
<li>Perhaps the most important factor for any investment in Asia is assessing corporate governance.</li>
<li>There are few books on the subject, making it difficult to navigate.</li>
<li>I was thrilled to read Chinhwee Tan and Tom Robinson’s Asian Financial Statement Analysis.</li>
</ul>


Perhaps the most important factor for any investment in Asia is assessing corporate governance.
There are few books on the subject, making it difficult to navigate.
I was thrilled to read Chinhwee Tan and Tom Robinson’s Asian Financial Statement Analysis.


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Inner Mongolia Yitai Coal Company Ltd / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Back on the 9 May, <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/inner-mongolia-yitai-coal-company-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14904:1" rel="noopener">Inner Mongolia Yitai Coal Company Ltd (3948 HK)</a></strong> announced an H-share buyback at HK$17.50/share.</li>
<li>With no pre-conditions attached to this hybrid Scheme/Tender Offer, my expectation was this could be wrapped up by mid-August. </li>
<li>The dispatch of the Offer Document yesterday evening indicates even this timeline was conservative, with payment potentially occurring in the third week of July.</li>
</ul>


Back on the 9 May, Inner Mongolia Yitai Coal Company Ltd (3948 HK) announced an H-share buyback at HK$17.50/share.
With no pre-conditions attached to this hybrid Scheme/Tender Offer, my expectation was this could be wrapped up by mid-August. 
The dispatch of the Offer Document yesterday evening indicates even this timeline was conservative, with payment potentially occurring in the third week of July.


Yitai Coal (3948 HK): H-Shareholders To Vote on 30th June

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>On the 19 May, Hong Kong's Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) released a 145-page consultation paper on proposed amendments to the Codes on Takeovers and Mergers and Share Buy-backs.</li>
<li>The paper proposes amendments to various provisions of the Codes together with the reasons for such changes.</li>
<li>The consultation will last for five weeks until 23 June 2023.</li>
</ul>


On the 19 May, Hong Kong's Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) released a 145-page consultation paper on proposed amendments to the Codes on Takeovers and Mergers and Share Buy-backs.
The paper proposes amendments to various provisions of the Codes together with the reasons for such changes.
The consultation will last for five weeks until 23 June 2023.


SFC's Consultation Paper On Proposed Amendments To The Takeovers Code

China

Harbin Electric Company Limited manufactures a comprehensive range of electric power generation equipment including thermal power generator sets, boilers, steam and hydro turbine and turbine generator sets.  The Company also provides power station engineering services and manufactures ancillary equipment for power stations as well as AC/DC motor and other products.

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Harbin Electric Co Ltd H (1133 HK)

CIMC Vehicles (1839 HK): Vote on 18 April as Uncertainty Lingers on the 90% Acceptance Threshold

The 90% minimum acceptance condition is a key risk in the context of a light offer and poor minority AGM/EGM participation rates. Risk/reward...

Arun George

CIMC Vehicles (1839 HK): Min Acceptance Condition a Risk for the Final HK$7.50 Offer

The 90% min acceptance condition is a key risk in the context of a light offer. Risk/reward is unfavourable as the downside (9.9% to undisturbed...

Arun George

Fraud in Asia

Perhaps the most important factor for any investment in Asia is assessing corporate governance. There are few books on the subject, making it...

Asian Century Stocks

Yitai Coal (3948 HK): H-Shareholders To Vote on 30th June

HK$17.50/share is a full and fair price. The tendering condition is the key risk to the deal. At HK$16.72/share, this is trading at a 4.7%/47.3%...

David Blennerhassett

SFC's Consultation Paper On Proposed Amendments To The Takeovers Code

My read is that there are no startling revisions/revelations. More of clarity and fleshing out additional detail to address likely scenarios/outcomes.

David Blennerhassett

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