Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>JPX-Nikkei 400 is composed of common stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. It is a free-float-adjusted market-value-weighted (capped) index composed of 400 constituents.</li>
<li>A periodic review is conducted by the Index providers, the JPX Group and Nikkei Inc, in August every year. We look at the potential forward inclusions and removals every month.</li>
<li>Below is a look at potential Inclusions and Removals for the JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebalance to come in August 2023 based on trading data as of end-January 2023.</li>
</ul>


JPX-Nikkei 400 is composed of common stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. It is a free-float-adjusted market-value-weighted (capped) index composed of 400 constituents.
A periodic review is conducted by the Index providers, the JPX Group and Nikkei Inc, in August every year. We look at the potential forward inclusions and removals every month.
Below is a look at potential Inclusions and Removals for the JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebalance to come in August 2023 based on trading data as of end-January 2023.


Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>At the October rebalance, there are 970 stocks that will have a lower FFW while 114 stocks will have a higher FFW. 493 stocks will undergo a Phased Weight Reduction.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 2.54% resulting in a one-way trade of ¥1.815tn. 500 stocks have over 4 days ADV to trade, 100 stocks have over 9 days ADV to trade.</li>
<li>Setting the threshold at +/-US$50m to trade, the stocks with inflows have outperformed the stocks with outflows by 6.5% over the last four months.</li>
</ul>


At the October rebalance, there are 970 stocks that will have a lower FFW while 114 stocks will have a higher FFW. 493 stocks will undergo a Phased Weight Reduction.
Estimated one-way turnover is 2.54% resulting in a one-way trade of ¥1.815tn. 500 stocks have over 4 days ADV to trade, 100 stocks have over 9 days ADV to trade.
Setting the threshold at +/-US$50m to trade, the stocks with inflows have outperformed the stocks with outflows by 6.5% over the last four months.


TOPIX October Rebalance: BIG One With ¥1.8tn a Side to Trade

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>Three interviews and comments by Senior Toshiba Boardmembers (chairperson and head of Special Committee) and the CEO prep the ground for a full company deal, or no deal.</li>
<li>If no deal, there's downside to the 5yr average Toshiba/Peers ratio. If you see 50% deal probability, at mid ¥6000s or better, IRRs are OK. But there is jump risk.</li>
<li>I don't see the activists just deciding to bail en masse if no deal. I think they take it further, which means I think the Board wants a deal.</li>
</ul>


Three interviews and comments by Senior Toshiba Boardmembers (chairperson and head of Special Committee) and the CEO prep the ground for a full company deal, or no deal.
If no deal, there's downside to the 5yr average Toshiba/Peers ratio. If you see 50% deal probability, at mid ¥6000s or better, IRRs are OK. But there is jump risk.
I don't see the activists just deciding to bail en masse if no deal. I think they take it further, which means I think the Board wants a deal.


Toshiba (6502 JP) Getting Closer to Crunch Time So Ongoing News "Leaks" Likely

Index Rebalance

Chubu Electric Power Co / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 12 additions to the S&amp;P Global Clean Energy Index for Asia. The changes were announced on 8 April and will be implemented at the close on 22 April.</li>
<li>Largest inflows are on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chubu-electric-power-co-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14574:1" rel="noopener">Chubu Electric Power</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-yangtze-power-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3210:1" rel="noopener">China Yangtze Power</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adani-green-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29012:1" rel="noopener">Adani Green Energy</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/energy-absolute-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10377:1" rel="noopener">Energy Absolute</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/longi-green-energy-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12703:1" rel="noopener">LONGi Green Energy Technology</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ja-solar-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16597:1" rel="noopener">JA Solar Technology</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tianjin-zhonghuan-semiconductor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6791:1" rel="noopener">Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sungrow-power-supply-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4255:1" rel="noopener">Sungrow Power Supply</a>.</li>
<li>The largest outflows are expected on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meridian-ener-partly-paid-sh" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4327:1" rel="noopener">Meridian Energy (MEL NZ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contact-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13136:1" rel="noopener">Contact Energy (CEN NZ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xinyi-energy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27808:1" rel="noopener">Xinyi Energy Holdings Ltd (3868 HK)</a>. </li>
</ul>


There are 12 additions to the S&amp;P Global Clean Energy Index for Asia. The changes were announced on 8 April and will be implemented at the close on 22 April.
Largest inflows are on Chubu Electric Power, China Yangtze Power, Adani Green Energy, Energy Absolute, LONGi Green Energy Technology, JA Solar Technology, Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor and Sungrow Power Supply.
The largest outflows are expected on Meridian Energy (MEL NZ), Contact Energy (CEN NZ) and Xinyi Energy Holdings Ltd (3868 HK). 


S&P Global Clean Energy Index: Changes for Asia & Impact

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<p>Reuters reported yesterday (25<sup>th</sup> November 2019) that a consortium led by Japan’s Mitsubishi Corporation has agreed to purchase the Dutch Energy company Eneco for a value of EUR4.1bn (USD4.52bn). The news was later confirmed by all three parties involved, Eneco, Mitsubishi Corporation and Chubu Electric. Eneco is currently owned by 44 Dutch municipalities and under the terms of the deal, Mitsubishi will own 80% of Eneco while its partner Chubu Electric will own the remaining 20%. The deal which is approved by Eneco’s board must be approved by Eneco’s municipal shareholders and most likely will get approval by next year. According to Eneco, the two Japanese companies will help strengthen Eneco’s sustainable energy strategy and allow it to further expand internationally. On the other hand, the partnership will allow both Mitsubishi and Chubu Electric to expand their energy initiatives in Europe and also to develop new products and services related to energy management. At the same time, it might give both Mitsubishi Corporation and Chubu Electric better green credentials and help them acquire or participate in other renewable projects too.</p>

Reuters reported yesterday (25th November 2019) that a consortium led by Japan’s Mitsubishi Corporation has agreed to purchase the Dutch Energy company Eneco for a value of EUR4.1bn (USD4.52bn). The news was later confirmed by all three parties involved, Eneco, Mitsubishi Corporation and Chubu Electric. Eneco is currently owned by 44 Dutch municipalities and under the terms of the deal, Mitsubishi will own 80% of Eneco while its partner Chubu Electric will own the remaining 20%. The deal which is approved by Eneco’s board must be approved by Eneco’s municipal shareholders and most likely will get approval by next year. According to Eneco, the two Japanese companies will help strengthen Eneco’s sustainable energy strategy and allow it to further expand internationally. On the other hand, the partnership will allow both Mitsubishi and Chubu Electric to expand their energy initiatives in Europe and also to develop new products and services related to energy management. At the same time, it might give both Mitsubishi Corporation and Chubu Electric better green credentials and help them acquire or participate in other renewable projects too.

Mitsubishi Corp and Partner Chubu Electric to Buy Dutch Power Firm Eneco

Japan

Chubu Electric Power Company, Incorporated generates, transmits, distributes, and sells electricity in Chubu area.  The Company's service area includes Aichi, Gifu, Mie, Nagano, and part of Shizuoka Prefecture.

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Chubu Electric Power Co (9502 JP)

JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2023: End-Jan 2023

There are 45 Potential ADDs and 42 Potential DELs presented in the current Leaderboard and I expect the Potential ADDs to outperform the Potential...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

TOPIX October Rebalance: BIG One With ¥1.8tn a Side to Trade

Lower FFWs on 970 stocks and higher FFWs on 114 stocks will result in one-way turnover of 2.52% leading to a one-way trade of ¥1.8tn at the close...

Brian Freitas

Toshiba (6502 JP) Getting Closer to Crunch Time So Ongoing News "Leaks" Likely

Bidders are approaching 2nd Round deadlines, and news/comments are starting to seep out. Expect more. I expect a decision at/after H1 results. If...

Travis Lundy

S&P Global Clean Energy Index: Changes for Asia & Impact

There are 12 adds for Asia as a part of the S&P Global Clean Energy Index rebal, plus other changes. There have not been any big price moves since...

Brian Freitas

Mitsubishi Corp and Partner Chubu Electric to Buy Dutch Power Firm Eneco

Reuters reported yesterday (25th November 2019) that a consortium led by Japan’s Mitsubishi Corporation has agreed to purchase the Dutch Energy...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

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