Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>2Q26 (Jul-25) revenue growth 56% YoY, despite a sharp decline in China revenue (-24% YoY). No H20 revenues from China. H20 charges normalize, margins improve, Net Income 5% above Consensus. </li>
<li>3Q26 revenue growth stable at 54% YoY, not including any H20 revenues from China. Upside from H20 at $2-5bn, max revenue growth 68% YoY. 3Q guidance ~3% above Consensus.   </li>
<li>The stock is not expensive. Trading at its average 47x trailing PEx, 33x forward. Very little risk to Consensus expectations over FY26-28. </li>
</ul>


2Q26 (Jul-25) revenue growth 56% YoY, despite a sharp decline in China revenue (-24% YoY). No H20 revenues from China. H20 charges normalize, margins improve, Net Income 5% above Consensus. 
3Q26 revenue growth stable at 54% YoY, not including any H20 revenues from China. Upside from H20 at $2-5bn, max revenue growth 68% YoY. 3Q guidance ~3% above Consensus.   
The stock is not expensive. Trading at its average 47x trailing PEx, 33x forward. Very little risk to Consensus expectations over FY26-28. 


NVDA 2Q26 (Jul-25) Small Beat. 3Q26 (Sept-25) Small Beat. Everything Is on Track, Don’t Blink.

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Amid the uncertainty surrounding the trade negotiations, Asian economies will have to provide fiscal and monetary boost to their domestic economies. They can't rely on exports to sustain their growth.</li>
<li>Asian economies shall likely provide more monetary stimuli than fiscal. Rapidly declining inflation affords their central banks larger wiggle room. China, Korea India, Indonesia, Philippines have room to cut rates.</li>
<li>Fiscal stimulus is more contentious. China and Indonesia have articulated targets of expanding fiscal deficit and public debt. Korea's low public debt and low bond yield affords some fiscal room. </li>
</ul>


Amid the uncertainty surrounding the trade negotiations, Asian economies will have to provide fiscal and monetary boost to their domestic economies. They can't rely on exports to sustain their growth.
Asian economies shall likely provide more monetary stimuli than fiscal. Rapidly declining inflation affords their central banks larger wiggle room. China, Korea India, Indonesia, Philippines have room to cut rates.
Fiscal stimulus is more contentious. China and Indonesia have articulated targets of expanding fiscal deficit and public debt. Korea's low public debt and low bond yield affords some fiscal room. 


Asian Equities: More Policy Stimuli Coming. Watch Out for China, Korea, India and ASEAN Pockets

<ul>
<li>ASML has been underperforming for 18 months. Recent downgrades are a delayed recognition of reality. ASML’s management goals for 2030 (10% revenue growth Cagr) are ok (plausible) </li>
<li>But growth is slowing fast in 2H25-1H26. Growth should re-accelerate in 2H26 as the impact of China and  Mature node lower spending, multiple delays (Intel, Samsung) is fading away. </li>
<li>The stock is getting cheaper, but lacks catalysts for another 2-3 quarters. Trading at 25x forward PEx, that’s reasonable given the firm’s intrinsic qualities.</li>
</ul>


ASML has been underperforming for 18 months. Recent downgrades are a delayed recognition of reality. ASML’s management goals for 2030 (10% revenue growth Cagr) are ok (plausible) 
But growth is slowing fast in 2H25-1H26. Growth should re-accelerate in 2H26 as the impact of China and  Mature node lower spending, multiple delays (Intel, Samsung) is fading away. 
The stock is getting cheaper, but lacks catalysts for another 2-3 quarters. Trading at 25x forward PEx, that’s reasonable given the firm’s intrinsic qualities.


ASML Downgrades, Semi Production Equipment Demand

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

<ul>
<li>Now that Lee Jae-Myung has become new South Korean President, the uncertainty revolving who will lead South Korea in the next five years is now over.</li>
<li>In this insight, we discuss four investment themes (related to Lee Jae-Myung becoming the new South Korean President) that could outperform the market for the remainder of 2025.</li>
<li>The four investment themes include Korean Holdcos/Quasi Holdcos, Korean Cultural Contents, Securities, and SK Group Companies.</li>
</ul>


Now that Lee Jae-Myung has become new South Korean President, the uncertainty revolving who will lead South Korea in the next five years is now over.
In this insight, we discuss four investment themes (related to Lee Jae-Myung becoming the new South Korean President) that could outperform the market for the remainder of 2025.
The four investment themes include Korean Holdcos/Quasi Holdcos, Korean Cultural Contents, Securities, and SK Group Companies.


Lee Jae-Myung Becomes the New South Korean President - Four Investment Themes That Could Outperform

<ul>
<li>April 2025, the US Gvt extended restrictions on Nvidia’s China-specific H20 chip. Restriction also apply to H20’s memory bandwidth. This means SK Hynix HBM and TSMC CoWoS.   </li>
<li>Nvidia new China-specific chip derive from this: a downgraded chip, half a Blackwell, without HBM-CoWoS packaging. Time to design, manufacture, could lead to ~15% downside risk to FY26 Consensus?   </li>
<li>FY26 revenues could land at US$175bn or  -12% below Consensus at 199bn. $175bn implies 35% growth YoY, Consensus expects 52%. The stock trades at “low” 30x FY26 and 24x FY27.</li>
</ul>


April 2025, the US Gvt extended restrictions on Nvidia’s China-specific H20 chip. Restriction also apply to H20’s memory bandwidth. This means SK Hynix HBM and TSMC CoWoS.   
Nvidia new China-specific chip derive from this: a downgraded chip, half a Blackwell, without HBM-CoWoS packaging. Time to design, manufacture, could lead to ~15% downside risk to FY26 Consensus?   
FY26 revenues could land at US$175bn or  -12% below Consensus at 199bn. $175bn implies 35% growth YoY, Consensus expects 52%. The stock trades at “low” 30x FY26 and 24x FY27.


Nvidia’s Jensen Complaining About Export Restrictions to China: How Much Is at Stake? Quite a Lot.

South Korea

SK Hynix Inc. provides products and services for the electronic components industry. The Company manufactures semiconductors, such as dynamic random access memory (DRAM), NAND flash memory, and static random access memory (SRAM) chips.

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SK Hynix (000660 KS)

NVDA 2Q26 (Jul-25) Small Beat. 3Q26 (Sept-25) Small Beat. Everything Is on Track, Don’t Blink.

Nvidia strong revenue growth in 2Q26 and 3Q26 despite decline in China revenue, with upside potential from H20 and margins improving. Stock not...

Nicolas Baratte

Asian Equities: More Policy Stimuli Coming. Watch Out for China, Korea, India and ASEAN Pockets

CPI & core inflation are nosediving in APAC barring Japan, indicating weak consumption demand. The latest is India's CPI at 1.55%. Policy stimulus ...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

ASML Downgrades, Semi Production Equipment Demand

ASML's underperformance is a delayed reality check, but management's 2030 goals are plausible. Growth is slowing but will re-accelerate in 2H26....

Nicolas Baratte

Lee Jae-Myung Becomes the New South Korean President - Four Investment Themes That Could Outperform

In this insight, we discuss four investment themes (related to Lee Jae-Myung becoming the new South Korean President) that could outperform the...

Douglas Kim

Nvidia’s Jensen Complaining About Export Restrictions to China: How Much Is at Stake? Quite a Lot.

Nvidia new China-specific chip GPU will take time, leading to potential downside risk for FY26 revenues. But the stock is trading at low multiples

Nicolas Baratte

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NVDA 2Q26 (Jul-25) Small Beat. 3Q26 (Sept-25) Small Beat. Everything Is on Track, Don’t Blink.

Nvidia strong revenue growth in 2Q26 and 3Q26 despite decline in China revenue, with upside potential from H20 and margins improving. Stock not...

Nicolas Baratte

Asian Equities: More Policy Stimuli Coming. Watch Out for China, Korea, India and ASEAN Pockets

CPI & core inflation are nosediving in APAC barring Japan, indicating weak consumption demand. The latest is India's CPI at 1.55%. Policy stimulus ...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

ASML Downgrades, Semi Production Equipment Demand

​ASML's underperformance is a delayed reality check, but management's 2030 goals are plausible. Growth is slowing but will re-accelerate in 2H26....

Nicolas Baratte

Lee Jae-Myung Becomes the New South Korean President - Four Investment Themes That Could Outperform

In this insight, we discuss four investment themes (related to Lee Jae-Myung becoming the new South Korean President) that could outperform the...

Douglas Kim

Nvidia’s Jensen Complaining About Export Restrictions to China: How Much Is at Stake? Quite a Lot.

​Nvidia new China-specific chip GPU will take time, leading to potential downside risk for FY26 revenues. But the stock is trading at low multiples

Nicolas Baratte

ASML's underperformance is a delayed reality check, but management's 2030 goals are plausible. Growth is slowing but will re-accelerate in 2H26....

Nvidia new China-specific chip GPU will take time, leading to potential downside risk for FY26 revenues. But the stock is trading at low multiples