Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>We present a WEEKLY tactical global macro recap/analysis for several markets and stocks we track, grouped by sector.</li>
<li>We apply our quantitative models to each instrument's trend, to determine which stocks/markets are just starting a trend, are in the middle of it, or are about to end it.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amazon-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:409:1" rel="noopener">Amazon</a>,  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/spdr-gold-shares" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8632:1" rel="noopener">GLD</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">ASX 200</a> are quite overbought. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-china-limited-class-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:656:1" rel="noopener">Bank of China (3988 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-states-oil-fund-lp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:174:1" rel="noopener">United States Oil Fund LP (USO US)</a> are oversold.</li>
</ul>


We present a WEEKLY tactical global macro recap/analysis for several markets and stocks we track, grouped by sector.
We apply our quantitative models to each instrument's trend, to determine which stocks/markets are just starting a trend, are in the middle of it, or are about to end it.

Amazon,  GLD and ASX 200 are quite overbought. Samsung Electronics , Bank of China (3988 HK) and United States Oil Fund LP (USO US) are oversold.


WEEKLY Tactical Recap: SK Hynix, CATL, Samsung Electronics, Nikkei 225, GLD, TSLA, Etc.

Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Hynix might have rushed ADR to price off Q1 within 135 day window, with weak Q1 LTA pricing already baked in and expected to pressure forward earnings.</li>
<li>Hynix’s aggressive ADR timeline compromised fungibility, leading some investors to view the move as a signal of management’s cautious outlook on forward memory pricing.</li>
<li>Hynix is more likely to go with incremental filings in batches. That gives them flexibility to manage supply and support the underlying tactically instead of committing to a risky buyback.</li>
</ul>


Hynix might have rushed ADR to price off Q1 within 135 day window, with weak Q1 LTA pricing already baked in and expected to pressure forward earnings.
Hynix’s aggressive ADR timeline compromised fungibility, leading some investors to view the move as a signal of management’s cautious outlook on forward memory pricing.
Hynix is more likely to go with incremental filings in batches. That gives them flexibility to manage supply and support the underlying tactically instead of committing to a risky buyback.


Investigation into Hynix ADR Fungibility Restoration and Key Open Questions

Equity Long-Short

Mo Aziz

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>
Two stocks explain the selling. Samsung and SK Hynix were 77% of September's foreign net selling and c.93% of January–July's. Outside them, foreigners are not leaving Korea.</li>
<li>
Timing and buyers matter. ₩102tn of the ₩135tn sold since May went in May–June; corporates bought ₩31.4tn in September. Buybacks are c.63% done and may finish by mid-October.</li>
<li>
The open question is FY27, not exports. Consensus profit sits c.24% above the Q3 run-rate. Samsung's expected 7–8 October prelims and post-buyback flows are the next tests.</li>
</ul>



Two stocks explain the selling. Samsung and SK Hynix were 77% of September's foreign net selling and c.93% of January–July's. Outside them, foreigners are not leaving Korea.

Timing and buyers matter. ₩102tn of the ₩135tn sold since May went in May–June; corporates bought ₩31.4tn in September. Buybacks are c.63% done and may finish by mid-October.

The open question is FY27, not exports. Consensus profit sits c.24% above the Q3 run-rate. Samsung's expected 7–8 October prelims and post-buyback flows are the next tests.


South Korea's Microchip Exports Are Booming. So Why Are Foreigners Still Selling Its Stock Market?

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>In late May we argued that Asia was fully valued and awaited correction. That correction has happened over past two months with Asia's forward PE declining from 15.1x to 12.7x.</li>
<li>Some markets have corrected more and have had significant EPS upgrades. These markets should catch up with their earnings trajectory, Korea and Onshore China in particular. HK looks undervalued too.</li>
<li>Indonesia, though affected by governance-related concerns and fiscal worries, seems cheaper than the headwinds warrant. Other Asian markets are in "no man's land": not too expensive, not egregiously cheap either.</li>
</ul>


In late May we argued that Asia was fully valued and awaited correction. That correction has happened over past two months with Asia's forward PE declining from 15.1x to 12.7x.
Some markets have corrected more and have had significant EPS upgrades. These markets should catch up with their earnings trajectory, Korea and Onshore China in particular. HK looks undervalued too.
Indonesia, though affected by governance-related concerns and fiscal worries, seems cheaper than the headwinds warrant. Other Asian markets are in "no man's land": not too expensive, not egregiously cheap either.


Asian Equities: Valuations Look Interesting Again, Forward Earnings Outstripping Several Markets

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Record quarter, record year. 2025 was shaped by Volume growth (bit growth) * Mix change (more high ASP stuff like HBM, less commodity) * the beginning of ASP increase. </li>
<li>In 2026: Volume accelerates (new capacity, higher density products), hence Mix improvement will continue (blended ASP up). The new element is broad shortages leading to price increase. </li>
<li>Consensus is forecasting 70% revenue growth in ’26, 19% in ’27. 70% is ok, 19% will depend on the tightness or shortage situation – but it’s easy to see upside.   </li>
</ul>


Record quarter, record year. 2025 was shaped by Volume growth (bit growth) * Mix change (more high ASP stuff like HBM, less commodity) * the beginning of ASP increase. 
In 2026: Volume accelerates (new capacity, higher density products), hence Mix improvement will continue (blended ASP up). The new element is broad shortages leading to price increase. 
Consensus is forecasting 70% revenue growth in ’26, 19% in ’27. 70% is ok, 19% will depend on the tightness or shortage situation – but it’s easy to see upside.   


SK Hynix (SKH): Record Quarter, Record Year, Record Outlook

South Korea

SK Hynix Inc. provides products and services for the electronic components industry. The Company manufactures semiconductors, such as dynamic random access memory (DRAM), NAND flash memory, and static random access memory (SRAM) chips.

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SK Hynix (000660 KS)

WEEKLY Tactical Recap: SK Hynix, CATL, Samsung Electronics, Nikkei 225, GLD, TSLA, Etc.

Weekly Global Macro Tactical Recap: our models tracks trends across asset classes to highlight overbought/oversold market conditions.

Nico Rosti

Investigation into Hynix ADR Fungibility Restoration and Key Open Questions

Local flow points to weaker than expected HBM pricing outcomes between Samsung, Hynix and NVIDIA. Street had priced in roughly 2x YoY ASP uplift,...

Sanghyun Park

South Korea's Microchip Exports Are Booming. So Why Are Foreigners Still Selling Its Stock Market?

Record chip exports, record foreign selling. The gap closes once you see who sold, when, and who bought: two stocks, mostly before exports peaked,...

Mo Aziz

Asian Equities: Valuations Look Interesting Again, Forward Earnings Outstripping Several Markets

Asia's correction over last 2 months has drawn fwd PE lot lower than long-term avg. KR, CN & HK seem set to rerate as markets need to catch up with...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

SK Hynix (SKH): Record Quarter, Record Year, Record Outlook

2025 saw record growth driven by volume and mix changes, with ASP increase beginning. 2026 expected to see continued volume growth, mix...

Nicolas Baratte

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

WEEKLY Tactical Recap: SK Hynix, CATL, Samsung Electronics, Nikkei 225, GLD, TSLA, Etc.

Weekly Global Macro Tactical Recap: our models tracks trends across asset classes to highlight overbought/oversold market conditions.

Nico Rosti

Investigation into Hynix ADR Fungibility Restoration and Key Open Questions

Local flow points to weaker than expected HBM pricing outcomes between Samsung, Hynix and NVIDIA. Street had priced in roughly 2x YoY ASP uplift,...

Sanghyun Park

South Korea's Microchip Exports Are Booming. So Why Are Foreigners Still Selling Its Stock Market?

Record chip exports, record foreign selling. The gap closes once you see who sold, when, and who bought: two stocks, mostly before exports peaked,...

Mo Aziz

Asian Equities: Valuations Look Interesting Again, Forward Earnings Outstripping Several Markets

Asia's correction over last 2 months has drawn fwd PE lot lower than long-term avg. KR, CN & HK seem set to rerate as markets need to catch up with...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

SK Hynix (SKH): Record Quarter, Record Year, Record Outlook

​2025 saw record growth driven by volume and mix changes, with ASP increase beginning. 2026 expected to see continued volume growth, mix...

Nicolas Baratte

2025 saw record growth driven by volume and mix changes, with ASP increase beginning. 2026 expected to see continued volume growth, mix...