AI | Semiconductors | Commodities, Mint Finance

Raghav Vashisht

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>CPO architectures do not eliminate InP demand; escalating power requirements for Continuous Wave lasers expand die size and crush wafer yield, potentially increasing substrate intensity per module.</li>
<li>Merchant InP supply is tighter than headline capacity implies. While all are increasing capacity, Sumitomo is increasingly captive, AXT’s export cadence dictates revenue, and JX remains a minor player.</li>
<li>While the market tracks indium prices, a major supply chain anchor is 7N red phosphorus, where a near-monopoly is held by two Japanese companies dictating substrate production limits.</li>
</ul>


CPO architectures do not eliminate InP demand; escalating power requirements for Continuous Wave lasers expand die size and crush wafer yield, potentially increasing substrate intensity per module.
Merchant InP supply is tighter than headline capacity implies. While all are increasing capacity, Sumitomo is increasingly captive, AXT’s export cadence dictates revenue, and JX remains a minor player.
While the market tracks indium prices, a major supply chain anchor is 7N red phosphorus, where a near-monopoly is held by two Japanese companies dictating substrate production limits.


[Part 1: The Materials Chokepoint] Looking Into (And Past) The Indium Price Story

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

<ul>
<li>Kioxia set for a big open after a brief -4.6% correction yesterday with comment from UBS turning memory sentiment decisively bullish.</li>
<li>Xiaomi’s numbers yesterday should be a shot across the bow for smartphone related names. MLCC makers Taiyo Yuden, Murata and TDK looking increasingly stretched with big exposure to the market.</li>
<li>Software rotation bid evaporates as AI surges. Expect an underperformance today.</li>
</ul>


Kioxia set for a big open after a brief -4.6% correction yesterday with comment from UBS turning memory sentiment decisively bullish.
Xiaomi’s numbers yesterday should be a shot across the bow for smartphone related names. MLCC makers Taiyo Yuden, Murata and TDK looking increasingly stretched with big exposure to the market.
Software rotation bid evaporates as AI surges. Expect an underperformance today.


Japan Morning Connection: Kioxia Set for a Big Open as Memory Surges to New Records

<ul>
<li>Even a slight disappointment from NVDA could trigger a big correction in Japanese SPE names who have already started to waver in the last few days post-earnings. </li>
<li>Lasertec, Disco and Advantest retreating but merely a blip on their 1-year charts with room for more profit taking.</li>
<li>Space names Synspective and Axelspace still look attractive ahead of SpaceX pricing in 3 weeks.</li>
</ul>


Even a slight disappointment from NVDA could trigger a big correction in Japanese SPE names who have already started to waver in the last few days post-earnings. 
Lasertec, Disco and Advantest retreating but merely a blip on their 1-year charts with room for more profit taking.
Space names Synspective and Axelspace still look attractive ahead of SpaceX pricing in 3 weeks.


Japan Morning Connection: NVDA Numbers Tomorrow Loom Over Already Wavering SPE Names

<ul>
<li>Kioxia smashes estimates with all 2026 NAND capacity already sold out and US ADR listing announced.</li>
<li>Software catches a defensive bid with NEC and Fujitsu set to outperform.</li>
<li>Space names Synspective and Axelspace yet to catch a bid and offering attractive entry points ahead of upcoming hype.</li>
</ul>


Kioxia smashes estimates with all 2026 NAND capacity already sold out and US ADR listing announced.
Software catches a defensive bid with NEC and Fujitsu set to outperform.
Space names Synspective and Axelspace yet to catch a bid and offering attractive entry points ahead of upcoming hype.


Japan Morning Connection: Kioxia's Blowout Numbers A Bright Spot Amidst Tech Pullback

<ul>
<li>Boeing China deal reported to be for as many as 500 aircraft — positive read for Toray and Japan's heavies who are suppliers to the 787 Dreamliner.</li>
<li>Space names heating up ahead of estimated June-July listing window with Astroscale +13.3% and QPS +5.8% yesterday.</li>
<li>TDK flagged alongside Himax as a key lifecording wearables play which will be the eyes and ears of AI as wearables become more and more ubiquitous.</li>
</ul>


Boeing China deal reported to be for as many as 500 aircraft — positive read for Toray and Japan's heavies who are suppliers to the 787 Dreamliner.
Space names heating up ahead of estimated June-July listing window with Astroscale +13.3% and QPS +5.8% yesterday.
TDK flagged alongside Himax as a key lifecording wearables play which will be the eyes and ears of AI as wearables become more and more ubiquitous.


Japan Morning Connection: Toray and the Heavies in Focus as China Eyes a Possible Deal with Boeing

Japan

ADVANTEST CORPORATION produces semiconductor testing devices and electronic measuring instruments.  The Company's products include large-scale integration (LSI) test systems, memory test systems, dynamic test handlers, network analyzers, electronic meters, optical testing devices, and signal sources.

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Advantest Corp (6857 JP)

[Part 1: The Materials Chokepoint] Looking Into (And Past) The Indium Price Story

AI optics demand crushes InP yield. Supply is squeezed with Sumitomo captive and AXT export-bound. Yet Japan's 7N red phosphorus monopoly is the...

Mint Finance

Japan Morning Connection: Kioxia Set for a Big Open as Memory Surges to New Records

Memory sentiment bullish after UBS comment, setting up a big open for Kioxia after a brief -4.6% correction yesterday. Semi names offer buying...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: NVDA Numbers Tomorrow Loom Over Already Wavering SPE Names

SPE names brace for NVDA numbers tomorrow after already wavering post earnings. Market remains gun-shy on mainstay AI plays making it likely for...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Kioxia's Blowout Numbers A Bright Spot Amidst Tech Pullback

Worth watching Olympus for a rotation into good stories outside of AI. Sumitomo Forestry's recent mega-acquisition of Tri-Pointe homes look...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Toray and the Heavies in Focus as China Eyes a Possible Deal with Boeing

Boeing's China deal boosts Toray and Japan's heavies; Space names like Astroscale and QPS surge; TDK flagged as a play for lifecording AI wearables.

Andrew Jackson

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Part 1: The Materials Chokepoint] Looking Into (And Past) The Indium Price Story

AI optics demand crushes InP yield. Supply is squeezed with Sumitomo captive and AXT export-bound. Yet Japan's 7N red phosphorus monopoly is the...

Mint Finance

Japan Morning Connection: Kioxia Set for a Big Open as Memory Surges to New Records

Memory sentiment bullish after UBS comment, setting up a big open for Kioxia after a brief -4.6% correction yesterday. Semi names offer buying...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: NVDA Numbers Tomorrow Loom Over Already Wavering SPE Names

SPE names brace for NVDA numbers tomorrow after already wavering post earnings. Market remains gun-shy on mainstay AI plays making it likely for...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Kioxia's Blowout Numbers A Bright Spot Amidst Tech Pullback

Worth watching Olympus for a rotation into good stories outside of AI. Sumitomo Forestry's recent mega-acquisition of Tri-Pointe homes look...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Toray and the Heavies in Focus as China Eyes a Possible Deal with Boeing

​Boeing's China deal boosts Toray and Japan's heavies; Space names like Astroscale and QPS surge; TDK flagged as a play for lifecording AI wearables.

Andrew Jackson

Boeing's China deal boosts Toray and Japan's heavies; Space names like Astroscale and QPS surge; TDK flagged as a play for lifecording AI wearables.