Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>SMCI (bad)and AMD (good) numbers failing to lift the mood AH with CEO’s of GS, MS, Capital Group calling for a correction.</li>
<li>Lasertec, Advantest, TEL and Kokusai likely to wobble at the open, but it may be too early for dip-buying yet.</li>
<li>Nintendo posts impressive numbers and guidance looks obviously conservative with the NSW2 set to be their best selling console ever.</li>
</ul>


SMCI (bad)and AMD (good) numbers failing to lift the mood AH with CEO’s of GS, MS, Capital Group calling for a correction.
Lasertec, Advantest, TEL and Kokusai likely to wobble at the open, but it may be too early for dip-buying yet.
Nintendo posts impressive numbers and guidance looks obviously conservative with the NSW2 set to be their best selling console ever.


Japan Morning Connection: AI Takes a Hit Overnight on Renewed Calls that the AI Market Is Overheated

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.</li>
<li>In our prior Int'l Compass (Oct. 16) we discussed how the pullback was testing the uptrend, and we were buyers; this worked out well with indexes back at all-time highs.</li>
<li>Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S. remain our only overweights, but India is becoming more attractive as well -- add selective exposure. Many buy ideas highlighted in these countries.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.
In our prior Int'l Compass (Oct. 16) we discussed how the pullback was testing the uptrend, and we were buyers; this worked out well with indexes back at all-time highs.
Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S. remain our only overweights, but India is becoming more attractive as well -- add selective exposure. Many buy ideas highlighted in these countries.


India Finally Showing Signs of Life; Remain Overweight Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S.

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

<ul>
<li>
 For the week: Nikkei: +6.3% | TPX +1.9% | JPY 154.11 (+1.24¥)</li>
<li>
 Sectors: NFM +13%, Elec. Equip. +7%, IT &amp; Comm +4.5% | Paper -5%, Services -3%, Textiles -3%</li>
<li>
 Stocks: Ibiden +39%, Advantest +33%, SCSK +32%, Lasertec +31% | DMG -24%, Nidec -24%, SMS -16%</li>
</ul>



 For the week: Nikkei: +6.3% | TPX +1.9% | JPY 154.11 (+1.24¥)

 Sectors: NFM +13%, Elec. Equip. +7%, IT &amp; Comm +4.5% | Paper -5%, Services -3%, Textiles -3%

 Stocks: Ibiden +39%, Advantest +33%, SCSK +32%, Lasertec +31% | DMG -24%, Nidec -24%, SMS -16%


Japan Strategy Weekly | A Place in the Sun

<ul>
<li>Mega caps announcing bigger capex sends Microsoft and Meta down AH, but is another positive for semi-cap plays.</li>
<li>Disco numbers miss, but memory related shipment miss may be a matter of timing and expect management to say as much on call today</li>
<li>Blackwell for China will mean more upside for Ibiden, not that it needs any help after +25% in 2-days thanks to Nidec (and Nagamori's) demise.</li>
</ul>


Mega caps announcing bigger capex sends Microsoft and Meta down AH, but is another positive for semi-cap plays.
Disco numbers miss, but memory related shipment miss may be a matter of timing and expect management to say as much on call today
Blackwell for China will mean more upside for Ibiden, not that it needs any help after +25% in 2-days thanks to Nidec (and Nagamori's) demise.


Japan Morning Connection: Big Gains for Semi-Testers and Memory Sets Strong Tone (Again)

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Equity Capital Markets

Kokusai Electric  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Three weeks ago I wrote that KKR's lockup would expire about now in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-ecm-kokusai-elec-6525-kkr-s-lock-up-expiry-in-3-weeks-700mm-clean-up-coming" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:202343" rel="noopener">[Japan ECM] Kokusai Elec (6525) - KKR's Lock Up Expiry in 3 Weeks - $700mm Clean-Up Coming?</a> 
</li>
<li>Today post-close, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/applied-materials-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:283:1" rel="noopener">Applied Materials (AMAT US)</a> announced a 10.7mm share (4.5%) Accelerated Block Offering to be priced tomorrow morning, at an indicated 4.5-6.5% discount. This would put them at 10+%. </li>
<li>This should be very well taken up. There is index demand on the follow. The question is more about the unwind of KKR's last bit. Perhaps to come soon?</li>
</ul>


Three weeks ago I wrote that KKR's lockup would expire about now in [Japan ECM] Kokusai Elec (6525) - KKR's Lock Up Expiry in 3 Weeks - $700mm Clean-Up Coming? 

Today post-close, Applied Materials (AMAT US) announced a 10.7mm share (4.5%) Accelerated Block Offering to be priced tomorrow morning, at an indicated 4.5-6.5% discount. This would put them at 10+%. 
This should be very well taken up. There is index demand on the follow. The question is more about the unwind of KKR's last bit. Perhaps to come soon?


[Japan ECM] Kokusai Elec (6525) - Applied Materials $330mm Selldown

Japan

ADVANTEST CORPORATION produces semiconductor testing devices and electronic measuring instruments.  The Company's products include large-scale integration (LSI) test systems, memory test systems, dynamic test handlers, network analyzers, electronic meters, optical testing devices, and signal sources.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Advantest Corp (6857 JP)

Japan Morning Connection: AI Takes a Hit Overnight on Renewed Calls that the AI Market Is Overheated

Nintendo guidance looks conservative, with CEO comments that the NSW2 could surpass the Nintendo DS as the best selling console ever. SMCI -10% in...

Andrew Jackson

India Finally Showing Signs of Life; Remain Overweight Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S.

India's $SENSEX Finally Showing Signs of Life; Remain Overweight Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S.; Bullish Outlook Intact on $ACWI; Actionable...

Vermilion Research

Japan Strategy Weekly | A Place in the Sun

Stocks in the Japanese market saw significant gains this week, with sectors like NFM and Electronics leading the way. Ibiden, Advantest, and SCSK...

Mark Chadwick

Japan Morning Connection: Big Gains for Semi-Testers and Memory Sets Strong Tone (Again)

Smaller tester names may have room for further upside after Teradyne and Advantest surged. Any excessive weakness for Disco should be an oportunity...

Andrew Jackson

[Japan ECM] Kokusai Elec (6525) - Applied Materials $330mm Selldown

Kokusai Electric's recent selldown by AMAT has been well-absorbed and with shares up nearly 10% today on AI-related excitement in the hardware/SPE...

Travis Lundy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japan Morning Connection: AI Takes a Hit Overnight on Renewed Calls that the AI Market Is Overheated

Nintendo guidance looks conservative, with CEO comments that the NSW2 could surpass the Nintendo DS as the best selling console ever. SMCI -10% in...

Andrew Jackson

India Finally Showing Signs of Life; Remain Overweight Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S.

India's $SENSEX Finally Showing Signs of Life; Remain Overweight Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S.; Bullish Outlook Intact on $ACWI; Actionable...

Vermilion Research

Japan Strategy Weekly | A Place in the Sun

​Stocks in the Japanese market saw significant gains this week, with sectors like NFM and Electronics leading the way. Ibiden, Advantest, and SCSK...

Mark Chadwick

Japan Morning Connection: Big Gains for Semi-Testers and Memory Sets Strong Tone (Again)

Smaller tester names may have room for further upside after Teradyne and Advantest surged. Any excessive weakness for Disco should be an oportunity...

Andrew Jackson

[Japan ECM] Kokusai Elec (6525) - Applied Materials $330mm Selldown

Kokusai Electric's recent selldown by AMAT has been well-absorbed and with shares up nearly 10% today on AI-related excitement in the hardware/SPE...

Travis Lundy

Stocks in the Japanese market saw significant gains this week, with sectors like NFM and Electronics leading the way. Ibiden, Advantest, and SCSK...