Tracking developments across tech supply chains, Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tracking developments across tech supply chains

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>TSMC's November revenue decline was better than expected, poised for nearly 30% annual revenue growth.</li><li>SK Hynix restructures CIS organization to replicate HBM success model, aiming for improved performance.</li><li>TSMC founder sheds light on reasons behind Samsung and Intel's setbacks, pointing out core issues. YMTC refutes backdoor listing rumors, facing industry scrutiny; while Samsung explores using discrete LPDDR for AI-driven iPhones and China investigates Nvidia amid US-China chip tensions.</li></ul>

TSMC's November revenue decline was better than expected, poised for nearly 30% annual revenue growth.SK Hynix restructures CIS organization to replicate HBM success model, aiming for improved performance.TSMC founder sheds light on reasons behind Samsung and Intel's setbacks, pointing out core issues. YMTC refutes backdoor listing rumors, facing industry scrutiny; while Samsung explores using discrete LPDDR for AI-driven iPhones and China investigates Nvidia amid US-China chip tensions.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (11-Dec-2024): TSMC Nov revenue decline less than expected, annual rev up by 30%.

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>SK hynix reported another stunning quarter: revenue up 39% YoY, Operating Profit up 62%</li>
<li>The soft guidance for 2026 points to increasing bit growth and we know that ASP are increasing. As SK hynix says "explosive AI growth".  </li>
<li>Best 2 Memory stocks 1. SK hynix 2. Micron.  Samsung? we still need a bit more clarity on HBM3E / 4  qualifications</li>
</ul>


SK hynix reported another stunning quarter: revenue up 39% YoY, Operating Profit up 62%
The soft guidance for 2026 points to increasing bit growth and we know that ASP are increasing. As SK hynix says "explosive AI growth".  
Best 2 Memory stocks 1. SK hynix 2. Micron.  Samsung? we still need a bit more clarity on HBM3E / 4  qualifications


SK Hynix 3Q25: Another Stunning Quarter. More Upside in 2026.

<ul>
<li>SK Hynix and Micron stocks were lagging TSMC and Nvidia as it took ~2 years for HBM to suck up enough Commodity DRAM capacity to stabilize the Commodity market</li>
<li>That’s now done, we’re just at the beginning of spectacular HBM growth for at least 2 more years. The reasons are known: density increases, speed increases, dies thinner...</li>
<li>Stocks: keep or buy Micron and SK Hynix. Samsung remains unattractive imo</li>
</ul>


SK Hynix and Micron stocks were lagging TSMC and Nvidia as it took ~2 years for HBM to suck up enough Commodity DRAM capacity to stabilize the Commodity market
That’s now done, we’re just at the beginning of spectacular HBM growth for at least 2 more years. The reasons are known: density increases, speed increases, dies thinner...
Stocks: keep or buy Micron and SK Hynix. Samsung remains unattractive imo


HBM Stocks Will Keep Running (Micron, SK Hynix), It’s Just the Beginning

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

<ul>
<li>A major Intel balance sheet boost, backed by SoftBank, the U.S. government, and leading institutions, would enhance the company’s capacity to make bold bets on regaining global chip manufacturing leadership.</li>
<li>UMC's market valuation is less than the capex for just one advanced fab. Intel would likely make a gain on its investment since it would cause UMC shares to rally.</li>
<li>For less than the cost of a single advanced fab, a large company could acquire UMC and gain chipmaking expertise approaching TSMC’s level; boosting returns across an entire fab network.</li>
</ul>


A major Intel balance sheet boost, backed by SoftBank, the U.S. government, and leading institutions, would enhance the company’s capacity to make bold bets on regaining global chip manufacturing leadership.
UMC's market valuation is less than the capex for just one advanced fab. Intel would likely make a gain on its investment since it would cause UMC shares to rally.
For less than the cost of a single advanced fab, a large company could acquire UMC and gain chipmaking expertise approaching TSMC’s level; boosting returns across an entire fab network.


A Defining Bet: Intel’s New Capital and the Case for Buying a Stake in Taiwan's UMC

<ul>
<li>US – China: Restrictions on Semiconductors are relaxed. EDA tool (Cadence, Synopsys) already relaxed, Nvidia says export license will come, this implies that HBM can be sold to China.     </li>
<li>It’s really hard to “guess” what comes next as US restrictions on technology export to China are just one bargaining tool in much broader negotiations (trade deficit, fentanyl, etc).   </li>
<li>For Cadence and Synopsys, China is 12% of revenues. For Nvidia, China is US$ 30-35bn revenue in 2025 (15-17%).  Positive to Samsung, supplying HBM3 (Nvidia’s H20), GDDR7 (RTX PRO).</li>
</ul>


US – China: Restrictions on Semiconductors are relaxed. EDA tool (Cadence, Synopsys) already relaxed, Nvidia says export license will come, this implies that HBM can be sold to China.     
It’s really hard to “guess” what comes next as US restrictions on technology export to China are just one bargaining tool in much broader negotiations (trade deficit, fentanyl, etc).   
For Cadence and Synopsys, China is 12% of revenues. For Nvidia, China is US$ 30-35bn revenue in 2025 (15-17%).  Positive to Samsung, supplying HBM3 (Nvidia’s H20), GDDR7 (RTX PRO).


Jensen Went to the White House, and to China

South Korea

Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. manufactures a wide range of consumer and industrial electronic equipment and products such as semiconductors, personal computers, peripherals, monitors, televisions, and home appliances including air conditioners and microwave ovens. The Company also produces Internet access network systems and telecommunications equipment including mobile phones.

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Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (11-Dec-2024): TSMC Nov revenue decline less than expected, annual rev up by 30%.

TSMC's revenue decline in November was less than expected, on track for 30% annual increase; SK Hynix restructures, TSMC founder explains Samsung...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

SK Hynix 3Q25: Another Stunning Quarter. More Upside in 2026.

SK hynix's impressive quarter results show significant revenue and profit growth, with a positive outlook for the future driven by increasing bit...

Nicolas Baratte

HBM Stocks Will Keep Running (Micron, SK Hynix), It’s Just the Beginning

HBM revenue and profit growth set to soar, Micron and SK Hynix stocks recommended for investment. Samsung not as appealing.

Nicolas Baratte

A Defining Bet: Intel’s New Capital and the Case for Buying a Stake in Taiwan's UMC

Intel's balance sheet improvement is a major opportunity -- Intel should invest in UMC to create a win-win combination that can rival TSMC...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Jensen Went to the White House, and to China

US eases restrictions on semiconductor exports to China, allowing for potential sales of HBM technology, positive to Samsung. China represents 12...

Nicolas Baratte

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Tech Supply Chain Tracker (11-Dec-2024): TSMC Nov revenue decline less than expected, annual rev up by 30%.

TSMC's revenue decline in November was less than expected, on track for 30% annual increase; SK Hynix restructures, TSMC founder explains Samsung...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

SK Hynix 3Q25: Another Stunning Quarter. More Upside in 2026.

​SK hynix's impressive quarter results show significant revenue and profit growth, with a positive outlook for the future driven by increasing bit...

Nicolas Baratte

HBM Stocks Will Keep Running (Micron, SK Hynix), It’s Just the Beginning

​HBM revenue and profit growth set to soar, Micron and SK Hynix stocks recommended for investment. Samsung not as appealing.

Nicolas Baratte

A Defining Bet: Intel’s New Capital and the Case for Buying a Stake in Taiwan's UMC

​Intel's balance sheet improvement is a major opportunity -- Intel should invest in UMC to create a win-win combination that can rival TSMC...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Jensen Went to the White House, and to China

​US eases restrictions on semiconductor exports to China, allowing for potential sales of HBM technology, positive to Samsung. China represents 12...

Nicolas Baratte

SK hynix's impressive quarter results show significant revenue and profit growth, with a positive outlook for the future driven by increasing bit...

HBM revenue and profit growth set to soar, Micron and SK Hynix stocks recommended for investment. Samsung not as appealing.

Intel's balance sheet improvement is a major opportunity -- Intel should invest in UMC to create a win-win combination that can rival TSMC...

US eases restrictions on semiconductor exports to China, allowing for potential sales of HBM technology, positive to Samsung. China represents 12...