Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>With a strong 20A/18A team, Intel might take some CPU shares back from AMD to affect TSMC but reduce geopolitical tensions from the US after Intel returning to the best. </li>
<li>SMIC can use DUV to do 3nm but different from others' because Moore's law is no longer using circuit line width but to use performance, power, density to determine 3nm. </li>
<li>New fabless industry opportunities are emerging in middle east countries, and south east Asia countries like Vietnam. Despite high cost issues, global expansion will help TSMC to attract global talents. </li>
</ul>


With a strong 20A/18A team, Intel might take some CPU shares back from AMD to affect TSMC but reduce geopolitical tensions from the US after Intel returning to the best. 
SMIC can use DUV to do 3nm but different from others' because Moore's law is no longer using circuit line width but to use performance, power, density to determine 3nm. 
New fabless industry opportunities are emerging in middle east countries, and south east Asia countries like Vietnam. Despite high cost issues, global expansion will help TSMC to attract global talents. 


A R&D Director Dr. Young Was at TSMC, SMIC, and Intel Foundry Shared Views on 3-1nm Competitions

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

<ul><li>Semicap is strong, Subsystems are not. That will change.</li><li>I think <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mks-instruments-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5970" rel="noopener">Mks Instruments (MKSI US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ultra-clean-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19849" rel="noopener">Ultra Clean Holdings (UCTT US)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ichor-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26449" rel="noopener">Ichor Holdings (ICHR US)</a> are likely good 12+ month longs as NAND spending increases, and they blow out estimates for multiple quarters in a row.</li><li>The factor-driven size difference drives the opportunity, and they should benefit well on a relative basis next year.</li></ul>

Semicap is strong, Subsystems are not. That will change.I think Mks Instruments (MKSI US), Ultra Clean Holdings (UCTT US), and Ichor Holdings (ICHR US) are likely good 12+ month longs as NAND spending increases, and they blow out estimates for multiple quarters in a row.The factor-driven size difference drives the opportunity, and they should benefit well on a relative basis next year.

Equity Long-Short

Mo Aziz

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
Cash Mountain: Samsung and SK Hynix's combined net cash US$263bn by year-end — exceeding the rest of the Magnificent Seven combined. The suppliers of AI are richer than its builders.</li>
<li>
The Anomaly: Net cash ~14% of market cap for both names — 5x Nvidia's ratio — as stocks price in a demand collapse that long-term supply agreements directly contradict.</li>
<li>
The Catalyst: SK Hynix has formally committed to expanded returns; Samsung says "very soon." At 70–80% FCF payout, the combined programme implies a double-digit effective yield on current market cap.</li>
</ul>



Cash Mountain: Samsung and SK Hynix's combined net cash US$263bn by year-end — exceeding the rest of the Magnificent Seven combined. The suppliers of AI are richer than its builders.

The Anomaly: Net cash ~14% of market cap for both names — 5x Nvidia's ratio — as stocks price in a demand collapse that long-term supply agreements directly contradict.

The Catalyst: SK Hynix has formally committed to expanded returns; Samsung says "very soon." At 70–80% FCF payout, the combined programme implies a double-digit effective yield on current market cap.


Samsung & SK Hynix: The Richest Cheap Stocks in Global Tech, With More Cash Than the Mag 7 Combined

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

HD Hyundai Heavy Industries  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The memory giants, Samsung and SK Hynix, have driven the Korean collapse, as AI anxiety and competition concern takes hold. However, there's more to Korea than memory and AI capex.</li>
<li>Throughout last month's carnage, Korean earnings estimates continued to be upgraded - not only in tech but also in financials, retail, basic materials, energy and industrial services.</li>
<li>Based on strong growth, attractive valuations, healthy balance-sheets, robust earnings upgrades, we highlight 15 non-tech Korean companies. Companies from industrials, select household products, basic materials have the strongest growth forecasts.</li>
</ul>


The memory giants, Samsung and SK Hynix, have driven the Korean collapse, as AI anxiety and competition concern takes hold. However, there's more to Korea than memory and AI capex.
Throughout last month's carnage, Korean earnings estimates continued to be upgraded - not only in tech but also in financials, retail, basic materials, energy and industrial services.
Based on strong growth, attractive valuations, healthy balance-sheets, robust earnings upgrades, we highlight 15 non-tech Korean companies. Companies from industrials, select household products, basic materials have the strongest growth forecasts.


Asian Equities: Korea - If Not Memory, Then What?

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Capital Markets

CXMT Corporation / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cxmt-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44129:1" rel="noopener">CXMT Corporation (688825 CH)</a> concluded its IPO price at Rmb8.66, and we estimate this equals 5x PER for FY26 and 3.4x for FY27.</li>
<li>It is inexpensive relative to global peers, as they are trading at an average of 8.1x and 6.1x, respectively. Normally, A-shares trade at a higher multiple than global peers. </li>
<li>Applying the Hang Seng AH premium on the IPO, there is a 74.5% upside. Aggressively, if GPU companies are used as references, it may even provide a 3x upside.</li>
</ul>



CXMT Corporation (688825 CH) concluded its IPO price at Rmb8.66, and we estimate this equals 5x PER for FY26 and 3.4x for FY27.
It is inexpensive relative to global peers, as they are trading at an average of 8.1x and 6.1x, respectively. Normally, A-shares trade at a higher multiple than global peers. 
Applying the Hang Seng AH premium on the IPO, there is a 74.5% upside. Aggressively, if GPU companies are used as references, it may even provide a 3x upside.


CXMT Corporation (688825 CH) IPO: Valuation Insight

South Korea

Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. manufactures a wide range of consumer and industrial electronic equipment and products such as semiconductors, personal computers, peripherals, monitors, televisions, and home appliances including air conditioners and microwave ovens. The Company also produces Internet access network systems and telecommunications equipment including mobile phones.

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Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)

A R&D Director Dr. Young Was at TSMC, SMIC, and Intel Foundry Shared Views on 3-1nm Competitions

A R&D Director Dr. Young Was at TSMC, SMIC, and Intel Foundry Shared Views on 3-1nm Competitions. Intel might ramp up its 20A/18A ahead of TSMC 2nm...

Andrew Lu

Why Subsystems Now

I think MKSI, UCTT, and ICHR are likely good 12+ month longs as NAND spending increases, and they blow out estimates for multiple quarters in a row.

Fabricated Knowledge

Samsung & SK Hynix: The Richest Cheap Stocks in Global Tech, With More Cash Than the Mag 7 Combined

Samsung & SK Hynix hit US$263bn net cash by year-end — 2.6x Nvidia — while trading at trough multiples. Capital return catalyst is weeks away....

Mo Aziz

Asian Equities: Korea - If Not Memory, Then What?

KR memory giants have driven equity crash, but many non-tech firms show strong growth, cheap valuation, healthy balance sheets & EPS upgrades. We...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

CXMT Corporation (688825 CH) IPO: Valuation Insight

CXMT Corporation (688825 CH) has announced it will start trading on the Shanghai Stock Exchange's STAR Market next Monday (27 Jul 2026).

Osbert Tang, CFA

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A R&D Director Dr. Young Was at TSMC, SMIC, and Intel Foundry Shared Views on 3-1nm Competitions

A R&D Director Dr. Young Was at TSMC, SMIC, and Intel Foundry Shared Views on 3-1nm Competitions. Intel might ramp up its 20A/18A ahead of TSMC 2nm...

Andrew Lu

Why Subsystems Now

I think MKSI, UCTT, and ICHR are likely good 12+ month longs as NAND spending increases, and they blow out estimates for multiple quarters in a row.

Fabricated Knowledge

Samsung & SK Hynix: The Richest Cheap Stocks in Global Tech, With More Cash Than the Mag 7 Combined

Samsung & SK Hynix hit US$263bn net cash by year-end — 2.6x Nvidia — while trading at trough multiples. Capital return catalyst is weeks away....

Mo Aziz

Asian Equities: Korea - If Not Memory, Then What?

​KR memory giants have driven equity crash, but many non-tech firms show strong growth, cheap valuation, healthy balance sheets & EPS upgrades. We...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

CXMT Corporation (688825 CH) IPO: Valuation Insight

CXMT Corporation (688825 CH) has announced it will start trading on the Shanghai Stock Exchange's STAR Market next Monday (27 Jul 2026).

Osbert Tang, CFA

KR memory giants have driven equity crash, but many non-tech firms show strong growth, cheap valuation, healthy balance sheets & EPS upgrades. We...