Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>LAM beats largely Sept-25 (15% above), Dec-25 guidance slightly above (4%), long-term drivers are concrete: $100bn in Data Center = 8bn in semi equipment, $40bn of NAND equipment to upgrade.</li>
<li>LAM is gaining share (depo / etch growing faster than litho), is ahead in the new stuff (Moly ALD, dry resist EUV). YTD Net Income is up 44%. Very impressive.</li>
<li>Among Semi Equipment stocks, LRCX is the best performer YTD: up 88%. LRCX is trading at +2.5 standard deviations: 30x forward EPS versus average 17x. Time to sell.</li>
</ul>


LAM beats largely Sept-25 (15% above), Dec-25 guidance slightly above (4%), long-term drivers are concrete: $100bn in Data Center = 8bn in semi equipment, $40bn of NAND equipment to upgrade.
LAM is gaining share (depo / etch growing faster than litho), is ahead in the new stuff (Moly ALD, dry resist EUV). YTD Net Income is up 44%. Very impressive.
Among Semi Equipment stocks, LRCX is the best performer YTD: up 88%. LRCX is trading at +2.5 standard deviations: 30x forward EPS versus average 17x. Time to sell.


Lam Research: Sept-25 Beat (15%), 4Q Above Consensus, but After 88% Rally the Stock Is Expensive.

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>We recommend selling MUFG19 and cutting losses on SONY80, with returns of –2.7% and –6.6%, respectively, while opening a new position in AMD80, a DR linked to Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) listed on the NASDAQ.</li><li>The return of KTX DR Tactical Picks portfolio fell 1.66% from the previous day, pressured by weakness in Asian equities amid concerns over rising bad-debt risks among US regional banks.</li><li>Our study using the KTX Fundamental USD/THB Tracker indicates that the baht is currently excessively weak.</li></ul>

We recommend selling MUFG19 and cutting losses on SONY80, with returns of –2.7% and –6.6%, respectively, while opening a new position in AMD80, a DR linked to Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) listed on the NASDAQ.The return of KTX DR Tactical Picks portfolio fell 1.66% from the previous day, pressured by weakness in Asian equities amid concerns over rising bad-debt risks among US regional banks.Our study using the KTX Fundamental USD/THB Tracker indicates that the baht is currently excessively weak.

KTX TACTICAL DR PICKS - October 20, 2025 (Eng.)

Independent Investment Research, The IDEA!

The IDEA!

Independent Investment Research

The Idea-Driven Equities Analyses company (the IDEA!) is an employee-owned boutique providing independent investment research and financial consultancy services with a clear focus on the Benelux countries. The company was founded in the summer of 2007 by Henk Slotboom and Maarten Verbeek, both with more than 35 years of professional experience in the financial sector. The IDEA! differentiates itself by focusing on adding value through self-initiated in-depth, idea-driven investment research, as well as by bespoke research assignments for institutional investors, hedge funds and private equity. In addition, we provide market intelligence, strategic research and – together with our business partners – consultancy services to businesses. In case you are interested in receiving more information, a sample of our products or an introductory meeting, please send a message to info@theidea.nl.

<ul><li>In this edition: • Nexperia | Chinese management ordered to follow Chinese law • E-commerce & Logistics | national surcharge on non-EU low-value parcels “is illegal” • Dutch politics | D66 clearly benefits from first TV debate • Corporate Agenda | week 43 - 47</li></ul>

In this edition: • Nexperia | Chinese management ordered to follow Chinese law • E-commerce & Logistics | national surcharge on non-EU low-value parcels “is illegal” • Dutch politics | D66 clearly benefits from first TV debate • Corporate Agenda | week 43 - 47

Tracking developments across tech supply chains, Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tracking developments across tech supply chains

<ul><li>Samsung plans to acquire advanced lithography tools from ASML to strengthen its market position against TSMC.</li><li>Telecom companies in Taiwan reported record revenues in September, largely due to increased iPhone 17 sales.</li><li>China's tightening control over critical minerals raises concerns for the electronics supply chain and manufacturing.</li></ul>

Samsung plans to acquire advanced lithography tools from ASML to strengthen its market position against TSMC.Telecom companies in Taiwan reported record revenues in September, largely due to increased iPhone 17 sales.China's tightening control over critical minerals raises concerns for the electronics supply chain and manufacturing.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (17-Oct-2025): Samsung to use ASML's lithography tools against

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.</li>
<li>Our bullish near-term outlook will remain in place as long as the 5+ month uptrend continues on ACWI-US. So far, the latest pullback is testing the uptrend -- buy/stay long.</li>
<li>We are buying the test of 7-month base support in Europe (EURO STOXX 50). China's Shanghai Composite points to a second chance breakout attempt above 1.5-month resistance -- buy/stay long</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.
Our bullish near-term outlook will remain in place as long as the 5+ month uptrend continues on ACWI-US. So far, the latest pullback is testing the uptrend -- buy/stay long.
We are buying the test of 7-month base support in Europe (EURO STOXX 50). China's Shanghai Composite points to a second chance breakout attempt above 1.5-month resistance -- buy/stay long


5+ Month Uptrend Support Holding on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US); China Second Chance Breakout Likely

Netherlands

ASML Holding N.V. develops, produces, and markets semiconductor manufacturing equipment, specifically machines for the production of chips through lithography. The Company services clients world wide.

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ASML Holding NV (ASML NA)

Lam Research: Sept-25 Beat (15%), 4Q Above Consensus, but After 88% Rally the Stock Is Expensive.

LAM sees strong growth in Data Center and NAND equipment, gaining market share and showing impressive YTD Net Income increase. LRCX is top...

Nicolas Baratte

KTX TACTICAL DR PICKS - October 20, 2025 (Eng.)

The return of KTX DR Tactical Picks portfolio fell 1.66% from the previous day, pressured by weakness in Asian equities amid concerns over rising...

Krungthai XSpring

Zalando SE - What's News in Amsterdam

In this edition: • Nexperia | Chinese management ordered to follow Chinese law • E-commerce & Logistics | national surcharge on non-EU...

The IDEA!

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (17-Oct-2025): Samsung to use ASML's lithography tools against

Samsung plans to acquire ASML's lithography tools to compete with TSMC, while telecoms in Taiwan report record revenues, and Apple seeks tax...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

5+ Month Uptrend Support Holding on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US); China Second Chance Breakout Likely

5+ Month Uptrend Support Holding on MSCI $ACWI; Bullish Outlook Intact; China Second Chance Breakout Likely on Shanghai Composite. Buying the test...

Vermilion Research

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52-week Range

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Lam Research: Sept-25 Beat (15%), 4Q Above Consensus, but After 88% Rally the Stock Is Expensive.

​LAM sees strong growth in Data Center and NAND equipment, gaining market share and showing impressive YTD Net Income increase. LRCX is top...

Nicolas Baratte

KTX TACTICAL DR PICKS - October 20, 2025 (Eng.)

The return of KTX DR Tactical Picks portfolio fell 1.66% from the previous day, pressured by weakness in Asian equities amid concerns over rising...

Krungthai XSpring

Zalando SE - What's News in Amsterdam

In this edition: • Nexperia | Chinese management ordered to follow Chinese law • E-commerce & Logistics | national surcharge on non-EU...

The IDEA!

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (17-Oct-2025): Samsung to use ASML's lithography tools against

Samsung plans to acquire ASML's lithography tools to compete with TSMC, while telecoms in Taiwan report record revenues, and Apple seeks tax...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

5+ Month Uptrend Support Holding on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US); China Second Chance Breakout Likely

5+ Month Uptrend Support Holding on MSCI $ACWI; Bullish Outlook Intact; China Second Chance Breakout Likely on Shanghai Composite. Buying the test...

Vermilion Research

LAM sees strong growth in Data Center and NAND equipment, gaining market share and showing impressive YTD Net Income increase. LRCX is top...