Iron Ore, Copper, Equities, Mint Finance

Umang Agrawal

Iron Ore, Copper, Equities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Rio Tinto’s iron ore sales volumes are holding up, but weaker Chinese steel demand, rising cost pressures and the CMRG standoff threaten margins and Simandou’s ramp-up.</li>
<li>Oyu Tolgoi’s 27% production growth supported Q3 copper output, partly offsetting declines at Escondida. Sustaining this growth will be key to Rio Tinto’s copper growth outlook.</li>
<li>Analysts expect FY26 EPS to grow 24.5%, outpacing 10.6% revenue growth, but shrinking earnings surprises leave less room to disappoint.</li>
</ul>


Rio Tinto’s iron ore sales volumes are holding up, but weaker Chinese steel demand, rising cost pressures and the CMRG standoff threaten margins and Simandou’s ramp-up.
Oyu Tolgoi’s 27% production growth supported Q3 copper output, partly offsetting declines at Escondida. Sustaining this growth will be key to Rio Tinto’s copper growth outlook.
Analysts expect FY26 EPS to grow 24.5%, outpacing 10.6% revenue growth, but shrinking earnings surprises leave less room to disappoint.


Beyond Pilbara: Rio Tinto’s Copper Upside Hinges on Oyu Tolgoi

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Supply disruptions and higher freight costs lifted iron ore in August, but squeezed mill margins and weak demand could limit further upside and trigger renewed price pressure.</li>
<li>Call buildup at the 100 and 105 strikes signals improving upside sentiment, while unwinding beyond 105 points to limited conviction in a sustained rally.</li>
<li>Managed money’s positioning turned more defensive in August, as greater short exposure and reduced long exposure signaled weaker conviction in further iron ore price upside.</li>
</ul>


Supply disruptions and higher freight costs lifted iron ore in August, but squeezed mill margins and weak demand could limit further upside and trigger renewed price pressure.
Call buildup at the 100 and 105 strikes signals improving upside sentiment, while unwinding beyond 105 points to limited conviction in a sustained rally.
Managed money’s positioning turned more defensive in August, as greater short exposure and reduced long exposure signaled weaker conviction in further iron ore price upside.


Iron Ore Monthly Derivatives Chartbook (August 2026)

<ul>
<li>Rising iron ore and copper prices in H2 2025 expanded margins, while Pilbara Blend Fines demand strengthened amid CMRG supply disruption.</li>
<li>The fatal SimFer incident suspended Simandou activities, creating timeline uncertainty and elevating scrutiny on safety measures and project execution credibility.</li>
<li>Earnings durability hinges on quantifying Pilbara demand momentum and mitigating weaker Chinese imports through geographic diversification, particularly scalable Indian steel growth.</li>
</ul>


Rising iron ore and copper prices in H2 2025 expanded margins, while Pilbara Blend Fines demand strengthened amid CMRG supply disruption.
The fatal SimFer incident suspended Simandou activities, creating timeline uncertainty and elevating scrutiny on safety measures and project execution credibility.
Earnings durability hinges on quantifying Pilbara demand momentum and mitigating weaker Chinese imports through geographic diversification, particularly scalable Indian steel growth.


What Must Management Clarify to Keep the Rio Tinto Bull Case Alive?

<ul>
<li>LME and SHFE inventories have plunged 42% and 84% from their peaks, respectively, while COMEX stocks hit 653 kt as traders front-load shipments ahead of potential US tariffs.</li>
<li>COPX attracted USD 62 Mn of inflows across two trading sessions following a USD 20.2 Mn outflow, as the Fed’s decision to hold interest rates revived investor confidence.</li>
<li>Glencore’s adjusted copper EBITDA is expected to accelerate by 62% in FY26, while a potential ASX listing could strengthen capital access and unlock fresh M&amp;A opportunities.</li>
</ul>


LME and SHFE inventories have plunged 42% and 84% from their peaks, respectively, while COMEX stocks hit 653 kt as traders front-load shipments ahead of potential US tariffs.
COPX attracted USD 62 Mn of inflows across two trading sessions following a USD 20.2 Mn outflow, as the Fed’s decision to hold interest rates revived investor confidence.
Glencore’s adjusted copper EBITDA is expected to accelerate by 62% in FY26, while a potential ASX listing could strengthen capital access and unlock fresh M&amp;A opportunities.


Falling Exchange Inventories and Potential US Tariffs Lift Copper, Glencore Eyes ASX Listing

<ul>
<li>Iron ore remains on the back foot as deepening steel mill losses sap demand. Any lift from lower Fortescue shipments will likely fade without meaningful production cuts.</li>
<li>Options traders are turning more bullish, adding upside bets above 100 while steadily unwinding downside protection despite weak near-term fundamentals.</li>
<li>Managed money is leaning decisively bearish. With short positions jumping by 21% in July, participants are signalling iron ore's downside risks are far from over.</li>
</ul>


Iron ore remains on the back foot as deepening steel mill losses sap demand. Any lift from lower Fortescue shipments will likely fade without meaningful production cuts.
Options traders are turning more bullish, adding upside bets above 100 while steadily unwinding downside protection despite weak near-term fundamentals.
Managed money is leaning decisively bearish. With short positions jumping by 21% in July, participants are signalling iron ore's downside risks are far from over.


Iron Ore Monthly Derivatives Chartbook (July 2026)

United Kingdom

Rio Tinto is a leading British-Australian multinational mining and metals company that specializes in the exploration, mining, and processing of mineral resources. Its core products include iron ore, copper, aluminum, and lithium. The company was founded in 1873 and is headquartered in London, England.

Price Gauge
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Rio Tinto (RIO LN)

Beyond Pilbara: Rio Tinto’s Copper Upside Hinges on Oyu Tolgoi

Resilient iron ore sales mask mounting pressures from China, while Simandou’s commercial ramp-up and Oyu Tolgoi’s execution could reshape Rio...

Mint Finance

Iron Ore Monthly Derivatives Chartbook (August 2026)

Options positioning remains constructive, with call OI concentrated above 100, even as managed money reduces upside exposure and increases bearish...

Mint Finance

What Must Management Clarify to Keep the Rio Tinto Bull Case Alive?

Stronger pricing supports earnings, but Simandou disruption, China demand risks, and execution credibility will drive Rio Tinto’s near-term...

Mint Finance

Falling Exchange Inventories and Potential US Tariffs Lift Copper, Glencore Eyes ASX Listing

Chile’s weakening output and fresh DRC export curbs are deepening concerns over mined copper supply, with China’s softer import demand emerging as...

Mint Finance

Iron Ore Monthly Derivatives Chartbook (July 2026)

Iron ore prices are struggling due to steel mill losses, with options traders turning bullish but managed money remaining bearish.

Mint Finance

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Beyond Pilbara: Rio Tinto’s Copper Upside Hinges on Oyu Tolgoi

Resilient iron ore sales mask mounting pressures from China, while Simandou’s commercial ramp-up and Oyu Tolgoi’s execution could reshape Rio...

Mint Finance

Iron Ore Monthly Derivatives Chartbook (August 2026)

Options positioning remains constructive, with call OI concentrated above 100, even as managed money reduces upside exposure and increases bearish...

Mint Finance

What Must Management Clarify to Keep the Rio Tinto Bull Case Alive?

Stronger pricing supports earnings, but Simandou disruption, China demand risks, and execution credibility will drive Rio Tinto’s near-term...

Mint Finance

Falling Exchange Inventories and Potential US Tariffs Lift Copper, Glencore Eyes ASX Listing

Chile’s weakening output and fresh DRC export curbs are deepening concerns over mined copper supply, with China’s softer import demand emerging as...

Mint Finance

Iron Ore Monthly Derivatives Chartbook (July 2026)

​Iron ore prices are struggling due to steel mill losses, with options traders turning bullish but managed money remaining bearish.

Mint Finance

Iron ore prices are struggling due to steel mill losses, with options traders turning bullish but managed money remaining bearish.