Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> reported 4Q results today. Both revenues and OP increased 7.1% and 42.0% YoY, however, both revenue and OP fell below consensus estimates.</li>
<li>The company also announced an increase to 2023 dividends and more than doublethe size of the company's share buyback in 2024 compared to 2023.</li>
<li>We expect Internet VAS to grow at single-digits in 2024, however, high-margin new products to help boost margins in 2024.</li>
</ul>



Tencent (700 HK) reported 4Q results today. Both revenues and OP increased 7.1% and 42.0% YoY, however, both revenue and OP fell below consensus estimates.
The company also announced an increase to 2023 dividends and more than doublethe size of the company's share buyback in 2024 compared to 2023.
We expect Internet VAS to grow at single-digits in 2024, however, high-margin new products to help boost margins in 2024.


Tencent 4Q2023: Gaming Declines Yet Again, Margins Have Further Upside

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>China announced game approval for the Feb batch. The number of games approved remained at a higher level than 2023.</li>
<li>The pace of China game approval appears to have accelerated to the same level as pre-tightening.</li>
<li>However, neither Tencent and Netease got any approval in March.</li>
</ul>


China announced game approval for the Feb batch. The number of games approved remained at a higher level than 2023.
The pace of China game approval appears to have accelerated to the same level as pre-tightening.
However, neither Tencent and Netease got any approval in March.


Tencent/Netease: Both Zeroed in March Game Approval

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>A shares were down on the week, but rallied Thursday and Friday.</li>
<li>Net SOUTHBOUND buying was +HK8.5bn after $57bn the two weeks before. SOUTHBOUND ended its consecutive net daily buy streak Monday, then started buying again.</li>
<li>The flavour of SOUTHBOUND buying has been high-div SOEs for months and months. That is starting to change slightly. Tencent was the top net buy this week. Again.</li>
</ul>


A shares were down on the week, but rallied Thursday and Friday.
Net SOUTHBOUND buying was +HK8.5bn after $57bn the two weeks before. SOUTHBOUND ended its consecutive net daily buy streak Monday, then started buying again.
The flavour of SOUTHBOUND buying has been high-div SOEs for months and months. That is starting to change slightly. Tencent was the top net buy this week. Again.


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 28 Mar 2024); Strong Net Buying on Tencent, Telcos, and Energy

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

<ul>
<li>Tencent reported C4Q23 revenue, IFRS operating profit, and non-IFRS net income in-line with our estimates and in-line with consensus, with non-game revenues exceeding while game revenue missing expectations;</li>
<li>We believe the shift from game to non-game should enhance Tencent multiples but the market might have concerns on the sustainability of this change. </li>
<li>We believe this change is sustainable with game revenue reaccelerating and non-game revenue continues to gain weight. We cut TP by 3% to reflect slow game recovery in C1H24.</li>
</ul>


Tencent reported C4Q23 revenue, IFRS operating profit, and non-IFRS net income in-line with our estimates and in-line with consensus, with non-game revenues exceeding while game revenue missing expectations;
We believe the shift from game to non-game should enhance Tencent multiples but the market might have concerns on the sustainability of this change. 
We believe this change is sustainable with game revenue reaccelerating and non-game revenue continues to gain weight. We cut TP by 3% to reflect slow game recovery in C1H24.


[Tencent (700 HK, BUY, TP HK$351) TP Change]: Improvement of Earning Quality Should Be Sustainable

<ul>
<li>A shares were down small on the week. Larger caps down more. H-shares down more after a hard Friday.</li>
<li>Net SOUTHBOUND buying was +HK35.8bn after $21.4bn the week before. SOUTHBOUND has net bought every day since the end of Chinese New Year.</li>
<li>The flavour of SOUTHBOUND buying has been high-div SOEs for months and months. That is starting to change slightly. Tencent was the top net buy this week.</li>
</ul>


A shares were down small on the week. Larger caps down more. H-shares down more after a hard Friday.
Net SOUTHBOUND buying was +HK35.8bn after $21.4bn the week before. SOUTHBOUND has net bought every day since the end of Chinese New Year.
The flavour of SOUTHBOUND buying has been high-div SOEs for months and months. That is starting to change slightly. Tencent was the top net buy this week.


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 22 Mar 2024); Strong Net Buying on Tencent and ETFs

China

Tencent Holdings Limited operates as an investment holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides Internet and mobile value-added services (VAS), online advertising, and e-commerce transactions. Tencent Holdings offers services to users worldwide.

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Tencent (700 HK)

Tencent 4Q2023: Gaming Declines Yet Again, Margins Have Further Upside

Tencent's 4Q revenue and OP grew YoY, but below consensus estimates. Games biz declined again after seeing growth in the last 3-quarters. New high...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Tencent/Netease: Both Zeroed in March Game Approval

China's game approval process shows higher levels than in 2023, with an accelerated pace resembling pre-tightening, but major companies like...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 28 Mar 2024); Strong Net Buying on Tencent, Telcos, and Energy

HK SOUTHBOUND Connect was a net buyer again this week, but the streak of consecutive buying since Chinese New Year was broken on Monday. SOEs and...

Travis Lundy

[Tencent (700 HK, BUY, TP HK$351) TP Change]: Improvement of Earning Quality Should Be Sustainable

Tencent's C4Q23 results show non-game revenue exceeding expectations, but market concerns linger on sustainability of shift from game to non-game...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 22 Mar 2024); Strong Net Buying on Tencent and ETFs

HUGE inflows into HK stocks by HK SOUTHBOUND Connect led by Tencent and the Tracker Fund. High-div SOEs were the main target before. Still seeing...

Travis Lundy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Tencent 4Q2023: Gaming Declines Yet Again, Margins Have Further Upside

​Tencent's 4Q revenue and OP grew YoY, but below consensus estimates. Games biz declined again after seeing growth in the last 3-quarters. New high...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Tencent/Netease: Both Zeroed in March Game Approval

​China's game approval process shows higher levels than in 2023, with an accelerated pace resembling pre-tightening, but major companies like...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 28 Mar 2024); Strong Net Buying on Tencent, Telcos, and Energy

HK SOUTHBOUND Connect was a net buyer again this week, but the streak of consecutive buying since Chinese New Year was broken on Monday. SOEs and...

Travis Lundy

[Tencent (700 HK, BUY, TP HK$351) TP Change]: Improvement of Earning Quality Should Be Sustainable

​Tencent's C4Q23 results show non-game revenue exceeding expectations, but market concerns linger on sustainability of shift from game to non-game...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 22 Mar 2024); Strong Net Buying on Tencent and ETFs

HUGE inflows into HK stocks by HK SOUTHBOUND Connect led by Tencent and the Tracker Fund. High-div SOEs were the main target before. Still seeing...

Travis Lundy

Tencent's 4Q revenue and OP grew YoY, but below consensus estimates. Games biz declined again after seeing growth in the last 3-quarters. New high...

China's game approval process shows higher levels than in 2023, with an accelerated pace resembling pre-tightening, but major companies like...

Tencent's C4Q23 results show non-game revenue exceeding expectations, but market concerns linger on sustainability of shift from game to non-game...