China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We expect FUTU to post C4Q22 revenue and non-GAAP net income 6.4% and 16.0% above consensus, driven by the improved turnover rate in HKEX and the rising interest rate. </li>
<li>We believe the recent regulation measures has little impact on FUTU’s adjusted expectations now widely held by investors. We expect revenue growth to reaccelerate at 37%/31% YoY in 4Q22/2023.</li>
<li>Maintain BUY to FUTU and raise TP by US$1 to US$51.</li>
</ul>


We expect FUTU to post C4Q22 revenue and non-GAAP net income 6.4% and 16.0% above consensus, driven by the improved turnover rate in HKEX and the rising interest rate. 
We believe the recent regulation measures has little impact on FUTU’s adjusted expectations now widely held by investors. We expect revenue growth to reaccelerate at 37%/31% YoY in 4Q22/2023.
Maintain BUY to FUTU and raise TP by US$1 to US$51.


FUTU(FUTU.US) 4Q22 Preview: Solid Fundamentals Drive Long Term Growth

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>In this note, we will take a look at the Asia Pacific IPO pipeline for 2023, starting with Hong Kong. </li>
<li>This list has been compiled on a best effort basis from tracking the company filings and through various other sources.</li>
<li>The deals you see in this note are only a part of our full IPO pipeline tracker. Feel free to drop us a message for additional information on these IPOs.</li>
</ul>


In this note, we will take a look at the Asia Pacific IPO pipeline for 2023, starting with Hong Kong. 
This list has been compiled on a best effort basis from tracking the company filings and through various other sources.
The deals you see in this note are only a part of our full IPO pipeline tracker. Feel free to drop us a message for additional information on these IPOs.


Aequitas 2023 Asia IPO Pipeline - Hong Kong

<ul>
<li>CSRC’s rectification on FUTU to suspend new user registration from mainland China while allow service continuation to existing user is well expected. We believe the market over-reacted;</li>
<li>FUTU caters to overseas Chinese and populations falling outside of major currency zones. This market supports a paying user growth of 12% and revenue growth of 19% CAGR to 2025.</li>
<li>We maintain BUY and cut TP from US$58.5 to US$50 due to moderate decline in mainland China users.</li>
</ul>


CSRC’s rectification on FUTU to suspend new user registration from mainland China while allow service continuation to existing user is well expected. We believe the market over-reacted;
FUTU caters to overseas Chinese and populations falling outside of major currency zones. This market supports a paying user growth of 12% and revenue growth of 19% CAGR to 2025.
We maintain BUY and cut TP from US$58.5 to US$50 due to moderate decline in mainland China users.


CSRC Sanction Is Likely Darkness Before Dawn

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Just one day ahead of its dual primary listing in Hong Kong, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/futu-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27858:1" rel="noopener">Futu Holdings Ltd (FUTU US)</a> postponed its Listing by Introduction. </li>
<li>According to the China Securities Regulatory Commission, Futu has been illegally operating cross-border securities trading without approval.</li>
<li>Suitably, the share prices of Futu and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/up-fintech-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27957:1" rel="noopener">UP Fintech (TIGR US)</a>, another online brokerage forced to quit accepting new onshore investors. It's probably too premature to buy the dip.</li>
</ul>


Just one day ahead of its dual primary listing in Hong Kong, Futu Holdings Ltd (FUTU US) postponed its Listing by Introduction. 
According to the China Securities Regulatory Commission, Futu has been illegally operating cross-border securities trading without approval.
Suitably, the share prices of Futu and UP Fintech (TIGR US), another online brokerage forced to quit accepting new onshore investors. It's probably too premature to buy the dip.


Futu Holdings: Cross-Border Broking In Crosshairs

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>We expect at least one change to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH INDEX)</a> in March - though there could be another change as well.</li>
<li>Changes to the index handling for Dual Primary Listings should result in an increase in free float and passive inflows to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/li-auto-inc-3dbe6187-544f-40dd-b9f9-72fba9c0110e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33811:1" rel="noopener">Li Auto (2015 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xpeng-inc-4cc65854-d10c-4d20-bf7e-ca0e016715ff" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33772:1" rel="noopener">XPeng (9868 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 5.83% resulting in a one-way trade of HK$4.87bn and this is mainly driven by float and capping changes.</li>
</ul>


We expect at least one change to the Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH INDEX) in March - though there could be another change as well.
Changes to the index handling for Dual Primary Listings should result in an increase in free float and passive inflows to Li Auto (2015 HK) and XPeng (9868 HK). 
Estimated one-way turnover is 5.83% resulting in a one-way trade of HK$4.87bn and this is mainly driven by float and capping changes.


HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview (March): Handling Treatment Changes Lead to High Turnover

United States

Futu Holdings Limited operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, offers an online brokerage platform that enables individual investors to trade in listed stocks. Futu Holdings serves customers in the United States, China, and Hong Kong.

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Futu Holdings Ltd (FUTU US)

FUTU(FUTU.US) 4Q22 Preview: Solid Fundamentals Drive Long Term Growth

We expect FUTO to post C4Q22 revenue and non-GAAP net income 6.4% and 16.0% above consensus. The improved turnover rate in HKEX and the rising...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Aequitas 2023 Asia IPO Pipeline - Hong Kong

In this note, we will take a look at the Asia Pacific IPO pipeline for 2023, starting with Hong Kong. The deals you see are only a part of the...

Sumeet Singh

CSRC Sanction Is Likely Darkness Before Dawn

CSRC’s rectification on FUTU to suspend new user registration from mainland China while allow service continuation to existing user is well...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Futu Holdings: Cross-Border Broking In Crosshairs

Being caught in a PRC regulator's crosshairs doesn't engender a positive trading recommendation. Clarification is required as to any restriction on...

David Blennerhassett

HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview (March): Handling Treatment Changes Lead to High Turnover

Index handling changes will lead to high turnover driven by increased float on Li Auto and Xpeng. There will be small inflows on the potential adds...

Brian Freitas

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