Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

National Securities Depository / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/national-securities-depository-ltd-nsdl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39939:1" rel="noopener">NSDL (NSDL IN)</a> raised around US$460m in its India IPO. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.</li>
<li>It is the largest depository in India in terms of number of issuers, number of active instruments, market share in demat value of settlement volume and value of assets.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.</li>
</ul>



NSDL (NSDL IN) raised around US$460m in its India IPO. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.
It is the largest depository in India in terms of number of issuers, number of active instruments, market share in demat value of settlement volume and value of assets.
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.


Aequitas: NSDL IPO Lockup - US$1.6bn Lockup Release with Most Sitting on 10x Gains

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

GigaDevice Semiconductor  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gigadevice-semiconductor" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46238:1" rel="noopener">GigaDevice Semiconductor (3986 HK)</a>'s grey market price of HK$224.8 is 38.8% higher than the IPO price. This means a PER of 53.5x for FY26, simply too stretched for us. </li>
<li>The grey market price represents a 68-77% FY26 PER premium to the most-expensive peers, namely <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/microchip-technology-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8788:1" rel="noopener">Microchip Technology (MCHP US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/texas-instruments-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18804:1" rel="noopener">Texas Instruments (TXN US)</a>. </li>
<li>Our fair value range is HK$204-238, based on the HA discount for 2025 IPOs and the current overall HA discount, implying limited upside potential.</li>
</ul>



GigaDevice Semiconductor (3986 HK)'s grey market price of HK$224.8 is 38.8% higher than the IPO price. This means a PER of 53.5x for FY26, simply too stretched for us. 
The grey market price represents a 68-77% FY26 PER premium to the most-expensive peers, namely Microchip Technology (MCHP US) and Texas Instruments (TXN US). 
Our fair value range is HK$204-238, based on the HA discount for 2025 IPOs and the current overall HA discount, implying limited upside potential.


GigaDevice (3986 HK): Its Just Too Demanding

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-zhipu-huazhang-technology-co-ltd-knowledge-atlas-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44500:1" rel="noopener">Knowledge Atlas Technology (2513 HK)</a>'s debut is lukewarm, and currently trading on 37.8x P/S for FY27, it is close to fairly valued. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/minimax-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46185:1" rel="noopener">MiniMax (100 HK)</a>'s B2C focus and its 3-year revenue CAGR of 126.8% (vs. 63.9%) warrants FY27 P/S of 55.1x, up from 48.8x as its peer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/moore-threads-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40221:1" rel="noopener">Moore Threads (688795 CH)</a> rallied. </li>
<li>Our fair value of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/minimax-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46185:1" rel="noopener">MiniMax (100 HK)</a> equals a 45% premium to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-zhipu-huazhang-technology-co-ltd-knowledge-atlas-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44500:1" rel="noopener">Knowledge Atlas Technology (2513 HK)</a>, justified by its above-sector momentum and "winner-take-all" characteristics.</li>
</ul>



Knowledge Atlas Technology (2513 HK)'s debut is lukewarm, and currently trading on 37.8x P/S for FY27, it is close to fairly valued. 

MiniMax (100 HK)'s B2C focus and its 3-year revenue CAGR of 126.8% (vs. 63.9%) warrants FY27 P/S of 55.1x, up from 48.8x as its peer Moore Threads (688795 CH) rallied. 
Our fair value of MiniMax (100 HK) equals a 45% premium to Knowledge Atlas Technology (2513 HK), justified by its above-sector momentum and "winner-take-all" characteristics.


Knowledge Atlas (2513 HK) & MiniMax Group (100 HK): Comparison, Debuts and Implications

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hashkey-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40847:1" rel="noopener">HashKey (3887 HK)</a> confirmed its IPO price at HK$6.68, 3.9% below the top end. Despite favourable subscription and placement levels, this suggests some concerns. </li>
<li>Digital asset-related names, BTC and ETH, have retreated by an average of 11.6% last week, implying a challenging environment for the debut. </li>
<li>It is priced at 14.5x FY26 P/S, vs. 10.5x (peer average) and only a 23% discount to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/robinhood-markets-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33532:1" rel="noopener">Robinhood Markets (HOOD US)</a>. It is only attractive at the low-end price.</li>
</ul>



HashKey (3887 HK) confirmed its IPO price at HK$6.68, 3.9% below the top end. Despite favourable subscription and placement levels, this suggests some concerns. 
Digital asset-related names, BTC and ETH, have retreated by an average of 11.6% last week, implying a challenging environment for the debut. 
It is priced at 14.5x FY26 P/S, vs. 10.5x (peer average) and only a 23% discount to Robinhood Markets (HOOD US). It is only attractive at the low-end price.


HashKey Holdings (3887 HK): A Challenging Debut Despite Oversubscription

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>At the top end of the price range (HK$6.95), <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hashkey-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40847:1" rel="noopener">HashKey (3887 HK)</a>'s IPO equals a FY26F P/S of 14.9x, and this is not a particularly appealing level. </li>
<li>While it is the industry leader in the region and Hong Kong, it is expected to stay in the red for FY25-27, making a PER comparison meaningless. </li>
<li>Tiny public shareholder base, cryptocurrency volatilities, and the increasingly competitive environment heightened risks. Only a low-end IPO price, or 12.7x FY26F P/S, is attractive.</li>
</ul>


At the top end of the price range (HK$6.95), HashKey (3887 HK)'s IPO equals a FY26F P/S of 14.9x, and this is not a particularly appealing level. 
While it is the industry leader in the region and Hong Kong, it is expected to stay in the red for FY25-27, making a PER comparison meaningless. 
Tiny public shareholder base, cryptocurrency volatilities, and the increasingly competitive environment heightened risks. Only a low-end IPO price, or 12.7x FY26F P/S, is attractive.


Hashkey Holdings (3887 HK) IPO: Pricing Uncertainties Expensively

United States

Futu Holdings Limited operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, offers an online brokerage platform that enables individual investors to trade in listed stocks. Futu Holdings serves customers in the United States, China, and Hong Kong.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Futu Holdings Ltd (FUTU US)

Aequitas: NSDL IPO Lockup - US$1.6bn Lockup Release with Most Sitting on 10x Gains

NSDL (NSDL IN) raised around US$460m in its India IPO. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon, who are all sitting on at least...

Sumeet Singh

GigaDevice (3986 HK): Its Just Too Demanding

GigaDevice's grey market price is 38.8% higher than IPO, leading to a FY26 PER of 53.5x, with limited upside potential compared to peers, even...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Knowledge Atlas (2513 HK) & MiniMax Group (100 HK): Comparison, Debuts and Implications

Debut of Knowledge Atlas is lukewarm, trading close to fair value at 37.8x P/S for FY27, while MiniMax's B2C focus and strong revenue growth...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HashKey Holdings (3887 HK): A Challenging Debut Despite Oversubscription

HashKey's IPO is priced at HK$6.68, 3.9% below the top end, signalling concerns despite strong demand. Digital assets were down 11.6% last week...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Hashkey Holdings (3887 HK) IPO: Pricing Uncertainties Expensively

HashKey's IPO at HK$6.95 equals 14.9x FY26F P/S, unappealing due to a tiny public shareholder base, crypto volatilities, and a competitive...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Aequitas: NSDL IPO Lockup - US$1.6bn Lockup Release with Most Sitting on 10x Gains

NSDL (NSDL IN) raised around US$460m in its India IPO. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon, who are all sitting on at least...

Sumeet Singh

GigaDevice (3986 HK): Its Just Too Demanding

​GigaDevice's grey market price is 38.8% higher than IPO, leading to a FY26 PER of 53.5x, with limited upside potential compared to peers, even...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Knowledge Atlas (2513 HK) & MiniMax Group (100 HK): Comparison, Debuts and Implications

​Debut of Knowledge Atlas is lukewarm, trading close to fair value at 37.8x P/S for FY27, while MiniMax's B2C focus and strong revenue growth...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HashKey Holdings (3887 HK): A Challenging Debut Despite Oversubscription

​HashKey's IPO is priced at HK$6.68, 3.9% below the top end, signalling concerns despite strong demand. Digital assets were down 11.6% last week...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Hashkey Holdings (3887 HK) IPO: Pricing Uncertainties Expensively

​HashKey's IPO at HK$6.95 equals 14.9x FY26F P/S, unappealing due to a tiny public shareholder base, crypto volatilities, and a competitive...

Osbert Tang, CFA

GigaDevice's grey market price is 38.8% higher than IPO, leading to a FY26 PER of 53.5x, with limited upside potential compared to peers, even...

Debut of Knowledge Atlas is lukewarm, trading close to fair value at 37.8x P/S for FY27, while MiniMax's B2C focus and strong revenue growth...

HashKey's IPO is priced at HK$6.68, 3.9% below the top end, signalling concerns despite strong demand. Digital assets were down 11.6% last week...

HashKey's IPO at HK$6.95 equals 14.9x FY26F P/S, unappealing due to a tiny public shareholder base, crypto volatilities, and a competitive...