Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Broad global MSCI equity indexes (ACWI,ACWI ex-U.S.,EAFE, and EM) remain bearish with YTD downtrends intact. Until these indexes reverse downtrends, we are bearish and view bounces as bear market rallies.</li>
<li>Major non-U.S. countries appear to be much further along in the bottoming process, a potential sign that U.S. indexes could take a back seat once global equities finally bottom.</li>
<li>Indexes that have not made a new low since March: Nikkei 225, TOPIX, TOPIX Small, Hang Seng, Europe’s EURO STOXX 50, and China's MSCI China (MCHI-US) and China Internet (KWEB-US).</li>
</ul>


Broad global MSCI equity indexes (ACWI,ACWI ex-U.S.,EAFE, and EM) remain bearish with YTD downtrends intact. Until these indexes reverse downtrends, we are bearish and view bounces as bear market rallies.
Major non-U.S. countries appear to be much further along in the bottoming process, a potential sign that U.S. indexes could take a back seat once global equities finally bottom.
Indexes that have not made a new low since March: Nikkei 225, TOPIX, TOPIX Small, Hang Seng, Europe’s EURO STOXX 50, and China's MSCI China (MCHI-US) and China Internet (KWEB-US).


Hang Seng, MSCI China Near Major Base Breakouts; Bottoms-Up Stock Rec's in Hong Kong, China, & Japan

Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Independent, Fundamental Quantitative Research

Propitious Research

Fully independent, fundamental and quantitative equity research, focused on companies in the Telecommunication, Media, Technology, Internet and Healthcare sectors in the Global Emerging Markets. Idea generation focused on Quality stocks, trading below their intrinsic Value, with sound Corporate Governance.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The Global Emerging Markets weekly provides a summary of the key news and related developments impacting the largest countries and constituents of the Global Emerging Markets equity indices.</li>
<li>
 Macro data points:Chinese PMI, and most of the rest of Asia’s PMI data showed declines.</li>
<li>
 Companies mentioned:<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/petroleo-brasileiro-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24459:1" rel="noopener">Petroleo Brasileiro Sa (PETR3 BZ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd (SE US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-kuaishou-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29725:1" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hcl-technologies-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20025:1" rel="noopener">Hcl Technologies (HCLT IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baidu-inc-a55ca720-5968-48f0-8194-ac94390d065c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32212:1" rel="noopener">Baidu (9888 HK)</a>
</li>
</ul>


The Global Emerging Markets weekly provides a summary of the key news and related developments impacting the largest countries and constituents of the Global Emerging Markets equity indices.

 Macro data points:Chinese PMI, and most of the rest of Asia’s PMI data showed declines.

 Companies mentioned:Petroleo Brasileiro Sa (PETR3 BZ), Sea Ltd (SE US), Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK), Hcl Technologies (HCLT IN), Baidu (9888 HK)



GEM Weekly (1 Apr 2022): Chinese Macro Activity; Petrobras, Sea, Kuaishou, HCL Tech, Baidu

Insurance & Central Asia-focused Analyst, KT Capital Group

Alec Tseung

Insurance & Central Asia-focused Analyst

This Original aims to identify the key investment opportunities among the listed brokers in the three major East Asian countries - China, Japan, and Korea. By looking at the development of the brokerage sectors in these three countries, we observe a general trend where upstart online brokers first compete against the more established brokers based on their cost and technological advantages. This then pushes the more established brokers to either focus on more lucrative wholesale businesses or adopt and invest in tech initiatives in order to stay competitive in the retail market.After further establishing themselves in the retail market, these upstart online brokers then also diversify and expand into the more lucrative wealth/asset management or even wholesale businesses.  By gauging at which phase the broker is in this cycle, investors can have a good understanding of its future outlook.In our opinion, Korean brokers currently offer the best value, while the Chinese pure-play online brokers offer the highest growth potential. As such, our pecking order, in terms of investment attractiveness, is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kiwoom-securities-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20418:1" rel="noopener">Kiwoom Securities (039490 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/east-money-information-co-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8075:1" rel="noopener">East Money Information Co A (300059 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/futu-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27858:1" rel="noopener">Futu Holdings Ltd (FUTU US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/monex-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14211:1" rel="noopener">Monex Group Inc (8698 JP)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/huatai-securities-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:449:1" rel="noopener">Huatai Securities Co Ltd (H) (6886 HK)</a>.  <h2>What is Original?</h2>In this Original, we look into the competitive landscape of the brokerage sectors in China, Japan, and Korea. 55 listed brokers from these three countries are included in this Original as the company universe for regression analysis. Among them, a total of 8 brokers are chosen, with their company profiles separately presented, to further showcase and contrast the impact of competition and technological disruption. Based on this, a pecking order is then developed, both on a country and a company basis.

This Original aims to identify the key investment opportunities among the listed brokers in the three major East Asian countries - China, Japan, and Korea. By looking at the development of the brokerage sectors in these three countries, we observe a general trend where upstart online brokers first compete against the more established brokers based on their cost and technological advantages. This then pushes the more established brokers to either focus on more lucrative wholesale businesses or adopt and invest in tech initiatives in order to stay competitive in the retail market.After further establishing themselves in the retail market, these upstart online brokers then also diversify and expand into the more lucrative wealth/asset management or even wholesale businesses.  By gauging at which phase the broker is in this cycle, investors can have a good understanding of its future outlook.In our opinion, Korean brokers currently offer the best value, while the Chinese pure-play online brokers offer the highest growth potential. As such, our pecking order, in terms of investment attractiveness, is Kiwoom Securities (039490 KS), East Money Information Co A (300059 CH), Futu Holdings Ltd (FUTU US), Monex Group Inc (8698 JP) / Huatai Securities Co Ltd (H) (6886 HK).  What is Original?In this Original, we look into the competitive landscape of the brokerage sectors in China, Japan, and Korea. 55 listed brokers from these three countries are included in this Original as the company universe for regression analysis. Among them, a total of 8 brokers are chosen, with their company profiles separately presented, to further showcase and contrast the impact of competition and technological disruption. Based on this, a pecking order is then developed, both on a country and a company basis.

Asian Brokers: A Competition Between Value and Growth

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

Bright Smart Securities & Commodities / Equity Bottom-Up

Bright Smart Securities & Commodities (1428 HK)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bright-smart-securities-commodities-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20511:1" rel="noopener"></a>Ant Financial has essentially passed through all hurdles in its acquisition of a 50.55% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bright-smart-securities-commodities-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20511:1" rel="noopener">Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK)</a> from the current controlling shareholder.</li>
<li>With a 68.5% surge in share price YTD, it is now trading on 31.8x FY27F PER and 9.2x P/B. A lot of 'dream' or 'hope' value has already been discounted. </li>
<li>It is more expensive than <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/futu-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27858:1" rel="noopener">Futu Holdings Ltd (FUTU US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/up-fintech-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27957:1" rel="noopener">UP Fintech (TIGR US)</a>, so taking some money off the table is sensible. </li>
</ul>



Ant Financial has essentially passed through all hurdles in its acquisition of a 50.55% stake in Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK) from the current controlling shareholder.
With a 68.5% surge in share price YTD, it is now trading on 31.8x FY27F PER and 9.2x P/B. A lot of 'dream' or 'hope' value has already been discounted. 
It is more expensive than Futu Holdings Ltd (FUTU US) and UP Fintech (TIGR US), so taking some money off the table is sensible. 


Equity Capital Markets

Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipmen / Equity Capital Markets

Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipmen (300450 CH)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wuxi-lead-intelligent-equipmen" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27971:1" rel="noopener">Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment (470 HK)</a> has a lukewarm H-share IPO response, but is still priced at the maximum of HK$45.80. This places it on 29.2x PER for FY26F.</li>
<li>We consider an appropriate HA discount to be roughly 25-30%, implying a fair value of HK$45.6-48.8, or 6.6% downside/upside, and it is almost fairly-valued. </li>
<li>At the top-end of our estimated fair value, its multiples do not appear attractive against the A-share and other global peers, so HK$48.8 is the ceiling. </li>
</ul>



Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment (470 HK) has a lukewarm H-share IPO response, but is still priced at the maximum of HK$45.80. This places it on 29.2x PER for FY26F.
We consider an appropriate HA discount to be roughly 25-30%, implying a fair value of HK$45.6-48.8, or 6.6% downside/upside, and it is almost fairly-valued. 
At the top-end of our estimated fair value, its multiples do not appear attractive against the A-share and other global peers, so HK$48.8 is the ceiling. 


Wuxi Lead Equipment (470 HK): Almost Fair

United States

Futu Holdings Limited operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, offers an online brokerage platform that enables individual investors to trade in listed stocks. Futu Holdings serves customers in the United States, China, and Hong Kong.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Futu Holdings Ltd (FUTU US)

Hang Seng, MSCI China Near Major Base Breakouts; Bottoms-Up Stock Rec's in Hong Kong, China, & Japan

Hong Kong's Hang Seng and China's $MCHI and $KWEB are near major base breakouts. We are watching is 22,700 on Hang Seng and $56.60 on MCHI; we are...

Vermilion Research

GEM Weekly (1 Apr 2022): Chinese Macro Activity; Petrobras, Sea, Kuaishou, HCL Tech, Baidu

The Global Emerging Markets weekly provides a summary of the key news and related developments impacting the largest countries and constituents of...

Wium Malan, CFA

Asian Brokers: A Competition Between Value and Growth

The Original looks into the current competitive landscape of the brokerage sectors in China, Japan, and Korea, with a view to developing a list of...

Alec Tseung

Bright Smart (1428 HK): Enough Is Enough

As expected, Ant Financial has put forward the Unconditional MGO at HK$3.28, or a 74% discount to its last close. This is a formality in the...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Wuxi Lead Equipment (470 HK): Almost Fair

Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment's lukewarm IPO response leads to a fair value estimate of HK$45.6-48.8, suggesting it is almost fairly-valued with...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Hang Seng, MSCI China Near Major Base Breakouts; Bottoms-Up Stock Rec's in Hong Kong, China, & Japan

Hong Kong's Hang Seng and China's $MCHI and $KWEB are near major base breakouts. We are watching is 22,700 on Hang Seng and $56.60 on MCHI; we are...

Vermilion Research

GEM Weekly (1 Apr 2022): Chinese Macro Activity; Petrobras, Sea, Kuaishou, HCL Tech, Baidu

The Global Emerging Markets weekly provides a summary of the key news and related developments impacting the largest countries and constituents of...

Wium Malan, CFA

Asian Brokers: A Competition Between Value and Growth

The Original looks into the current competitive landscape of the brokerage sectors in China, Japan, and Korea, with a view to developing a list of...

Alec Tseung

Bright Smart (1428 HK): Enough Is Enough

As expected, Ant Financial has put forward the Unconditional MGO at HK$3.28, or a 74% discount to its last close. This is a formality in the...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Wuxi Lead Equipment (470 HK): Almost Fair

​Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment's lukewarm IPO response leads to a fair value estimate of HK$45.6-48.8, suggesting it is almost fairly-valued with...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment's lukewarm IPO response leads to a fair value estimate of HK$45.6-48.8, suggesting it is almost fairly-valued with...