Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
Context: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a> reports FY2025 earnings on 13 May 2026 after market close. The nearest listed options expiry after the event is 11 June.</li>
<li>
Highlights: Options imply a ±7.7% earnings move, above the historical median/average range, while near-term IV sits above 80% and close to historical highs.</li>
<li>
Why Read: After a 60% one-month rally, SoftBank’s earnings reaction could drive both stock-level and index volatility, with option spreads offering an alternative to standalone long or short option positions.</li>
</ul>



Context: Softbank Group (9984 JP) reports FY2025 earnings on 13 May 2026 after market close. The nearest listed options expiry after the event is 11 June.

Highlights: Options imply a ±7.7% earnings move, above the historical median/average range, while near-term IV sits above 80% and close to historical highs.

Why Read: After a 60% one-month rally, SoftBank’s earnings reaction could drive both stock-level and index volatility, with option spreads offering an alternative to standalone long or short option positions.


SoftBank Group (9984 JP) Results on 13 May 2026: High Volatility Meets a 60% One-Month Rally

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a> will report FY2025 earnings on May 13 after the close. According to a <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/softbank-group-9984-jp-results-on-13-may-2026-high-volatility-meets-a-60-one-month-rally" target="_blank" rel="noopener">recent analysis</a> by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/gaudenz-schneider" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:66501" rel="noopener">Gaudenz Schneider</a> the stock's options imply a ±7.7% earnings move.</li>
<li>The stock is currently up 1 week, after a  &gt;72% rally since its March MONTHLY Close (3555). Our model predicts a possible rally continuation post-earnings, 1-2 more weeks.</li>
<li>The pullback scenario is also not bearish, we see that as a buy-the-dip opportunity, but the duration could be longer, up to 3 weeks down.</li>
</ul>



Softbank Group (9984 JP) will report FY2025 earnings on May 13 after the close. According to a recent analysis by Gaudenz Schneider the stock's options imply a ±7.7% earnings move.
The stock is currently up 1 week, after a  &gt;72% rally since its March MONTHLY Close (3555). Our model predicts a possible rally continuation post-earnings, 1-2 more weeks.
The pullback scenario is also not bearish, we see that as a buy-the-dip opportunity, but the duration could be longer, up to 3 weeks down.


SoftBank Group (9984 JP) Tactical Outlook Ahead of May 13 Earnings

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Trung Nguyen

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

<ul>
<li>UST yields declined 1-3 pts across the curve yesterday, as oil prices retreated below USD 100/bbl after US President Donald Trump claimed that Iran was seeking a peace deal.</li>
<li>The yield on the 2Y and 10Y UST fell 2 bps each to 3.78% and 4.29%, respectively. Equities advanced, with the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq up 1.0% and 1.2%, respectively.</li>
<li>Mr Trump told reporters at the White House that his administration received a call from Tehran, which said that it "would like to make a deal very badly". </li>
</ul>


UST yields declined 1-3 pts across the curve yesterday, as oil prices retreated below USD 100/bbl after US President Donald Trump claimed that Iran was seeking a peace deal.
The yield on the 2Y and 10Y UST fell 2 bps each to 3.78% and 4.29%, respectively. Equities advanced, with the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq up 1.0% and 1.2%, respectively.
Mr Trump told reporters at the White House that his administration received a call from Tehran, which said that it "would like to make a deal very badly". 


AI | Semiconductors | Commodities, Mint Finance

Raghav Vashisht

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>ARM’s entry into data-centre CPUs expands SoftBank’s AI footprint, but shipments begin late this year, and revenue scale remains a multi-year story.</li>
<li>SoftBank’s $30bn OpenAI commitment, backed by a $40bn bridge loan, brings balance sheet sensitivity forward, with returns now more time-dependent.</li>
<li>Adoption beyond hyperscalers is structurally slower, with enterprise migration constrained by x86 lock-in, software dependencies, and switching costs.</li>
</ul>


ARM’s entry into data-centre CPUs expands SoftBank’s AI footprint, but shipments begin late this year, and revenue scale remains a multi-year story.
SoftBank’s $30bn OpenAI commitment, backed by a $40bn bridge loan, brings balance sheet sensitivity forward, with returns now more time-dependent.
Adoption beyond hyperscalers is structurally slower, with enterprise migration constrained by x86 lock-in, software dependencies, and switching costs.


ARM’s CPU News Lands as SoftBank Doubles Down on OpenAI; Ramp Is Years Out

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.</li>
<li>On the IPO front, most of the listings this week didn't do much.</li>
<li>On the placement front, given the market volatility, there weren't any large deals. We did look at some of the upcoming lockup expiries.</li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
On the IPO front, most of the listings this week didn't do much.
On the placement front, given the market volatility, there weren't any large deals. We did look at some of the upcoming lockup expiries.


Aequitas ECM Weekly (16 March 2026)- Past A/H Trends, Delton, Raajmarg, Ringpai, FS.com, Everdisplay

Japan

SoftBank Group Corp. provides telecommunication services. The Company also operates ADSL (Asymmetric Digital Subscriber Line) and fiber optic high-speed Internet connection, e-Commerce businesses, and Internet based advertising and auction businesses.

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Softbank Group (9984 JP)