Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>With ongoing <a href="https://www.afr.com/world/asia/no-credible-exit-china-takes-on-bhp-to-reorder-a-276b-market-20260402-p5zl0f" target="_blank" rel="noopener">restrictions on BHP products by the CMRG,</a> China continues to stockpile iron ore, with port inventories exceeding 47 days (~165 million tons). </li>
<li>As a result, imports from China are up 10% YoY to 210 million tons for Jan-Feb, and are likely to remain strong with ramp-ups by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13:1" rel="noopener">(RIO AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vale-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23731:1" rel="noopener">(VALE US)</a>. </li>
<li>With steel production stabilizing and apparent demand at -5.6% YoY (coupled with restocking), it is likely that iron ore prices will hold up in the 100-110 USD/ton range till Q3.</li>
</ul>


With ongoing restrictions on BHP products by the CMRG, China continues to stockpile iron ore, with port inventories exceeding 47 days (~165 million tons). 
As a result, imports from China are up 10% YoY to 210 million tons for Jan-Feb, and are likely to remain strong with ramp-ups by (RIO AU) and (VALE US). 
With steel production stabilizing and apparent demand at -5.6% YoY (coupled with restocking), it is likely that iron ore prices will hold up in the 100-110 USD/ton range till Q3.


Iron Ore: China Steel Demand Stabilizes, Port Stocking Continues Unabated

<ul>
<li>
H1 FY26 NPAT of US$1.91bn (+23% YoY), driven by record H1 shipments of 100.2Mt, a 7% improvement in realised hematite price to US$91/dmt, and continued C1 cost discipline at US$18.64/wmt</li>
<li>
Near-Term growth is organic (Iron Bridge ramp to 10-12Mt FY26 guidance, decarbonization savings of US$2-4/t pre-2030). Copper optionality (Alta/Canariaco, BC, Kazakhstan) and Gabon iron ore are pre-FID.</li>
<li>
Interim dividend of A$0.62/sh (fully franked), up 24% YoY, representing a 65% payout ratio, consistent with the 50-80% policy. Total FY26e DPS of A$1.32/share (~6.3% yield).</li>
</ul>



H1 FY26 NPAT of US$1.91bn (+23% YoY), driven by record H1 shipments of 100.2Mt, a 7% improvement in realised hematite price to US$91/dmt, and continued C1 cost discipline at US$18.64/wmt

Near-Term growth is organic (Iron Bridge ramp to 10-12Mt FY26 guidance, decarbonization savings of US$2-4/t pre-2030). Copper optionality (Alta/Canariaco, BC, Kazakhstan) and Gabon iron ore are pre-FID.

Interim dividend of A$0.62/sh (fully franked), up 24% YoY, representing a 65% payout ratio, consistent with the 50-80% policy. Total FY26e DPS of A$1.32/share (~6.3% yield).


Fortescue Metals (FMG AU): Strong H1, Pre-2030 Earnings Bump From Decarbonization + Iron Bridge

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://baike.baidu.com/en/item/China%20Mineral%20Resources%20Group%20Co.,%20Ltd./14715" target="_blank" rel="noopener">China Minerals Resources Group's </a>restrictions on the purchase of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU)</a> have led to restocking from alternative sources, as seen in port numbers. </li>
<li>Inventory at the ports is now over 47 days, with Jan-Feb import volumes at 210 million tons, up 10% YoY according to China Customs Data. </li>
<li>We see a widening of the 65-62 spread as higher-grade products may be preferred to preserve blast furnace efficiency.  </li>
</ul>



China Minerals Resources Group's restrictions on the purchase of BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU) have led to restocking from alternative sources, as seen in port numbers. 
Inventory at the ports is now over 47 days, with Jan-Feb import volumes at 210 million tons, up 10% YoY according to China Customs Data. 
We see a widening of the 65-62 spread as higher-grade products may be preferred to preserve blast furnace efficiency.  


Iron Ore: All Eyes On CMRG Negotiation, China Imports And Restocking Strong: Negative Long-Term

Iron Ore, Copper, Equities, Mint Finance

Umang Agrawal

Iron Ore, Copper, Equities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Supply disruptions and higher freight costs lifted iron ore in August, but squeezed mill margins and weak demand could limit further upside and trigger renewed price pressure.</li>
<li>Call buildup at the 100 and 105 strikes signals improving upside sentiment, while unwinding beyond 105 points to limited conviction in a sustained rally.</li>
<li>Managed money’s positioning turned more defensive in August, as greater short exposure and reduced long exposure signaled weaker conviction in further iron ore price upside.</li>
</ul>


Supply disruptions and higher freight costs lifted iron ore in August, but squeezed mill margins and weak demand could limit further upside and trigger renewed price pressure.
Call buildup at the 100 and 105 strikes signals improving upside sentiment, while unwinding beyond 105 points to limited conviction in a sustained rally.
Managed money’s positioning turned more defensive in August, as greater short exposure and reduced long exposure signaled weaker conviction in further iron ore price upside.


Iron Ore Monthly Derivatives Chartbook (August 2026)

<ul>
<li>January TSF rose 2%, slightly above estimates, but offered limited reassurance that credit expansion will materially boost liquidity or stimulate China’s economy.</li>
<li>Port inventories are at over 45 days of China's iron ore requirements (well above average at 35 days), signalling a bearish environment if a prolonged destock persists.</li>
<li>Iron ore majors with copper pivots like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13:1" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)</a> outperform, or pure plays like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fenix-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7405:1" rel="noopener">Fenix Resources (FEX AU)</a> for high growth.</li>
</ul>


January TSF rose 2%, slightly above estimates, but offered limited reassurance that credit expansion will materially boost liquidity or stimulate China’s economy.
Port inventories are at over 45 days of China's iron ore requirements (well above average at 35 days), signalling a bearish environment if a prolonged destock persists.
Iron ore majors with copper pivots like BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU) and Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU) outperform, or pure plays like Fenix Resources (FEX AU) for high growth.


Iron Ore Price Below 100 USD/Ton: Subdued By High Port Inventories And Tepid China Data

Australia

Fortescue Metals Group Ltd. explores for and produces iron ore. The Company conducts business worldwide.

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Fortescue Metals (FMG AU)

Iron Ore: China Steel Demand Stabilizes, Port Stocking Continues Unabated

China is stockpiling iron ore amid the BHP/CMRG standoff and negotiations, supporting prices near $100–$110/ton. We assess the medium-term iron‑ore...

Sameer Taneja