Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>For March 2026, 5 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma (by the Quiddity team) with an overall announced deal size of ~US$9bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in March was ~33%, and a year-to-date average of 40%.</li>
<li>The average premiums for transactions in 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020, and 2019 were 49%, 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.</li>
</ul>


For March 2026, 5 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma (by the Quiddity team) with an overall announced deal size of ~US$9bn.
The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in March was ~33%, and a year-to-date average of 40%.
The average premiums for transactions in 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020, and 2019 were 49%, 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.


Asia-Pac M&A, March 2026 Wrap: Rohm, Gunma Bank, Toyota Indust., Nippon Sheet Glass, Echo Marketing

<ul>
<li>Bain extends the TOB for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mcj-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14132:1" rel="noopener">MCJ Co Ltd (6670 JP)</a>. This still needs a bump.</li>
<li>I'd still be setting up the stub here. Or buying <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-matheson-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19718:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP)</a> outright. Expect more accretion/recycling. All of which benefits Matheson. And the Keswicks.</li>
<li>Re: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-industries-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4500:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Industries (6201 JP)</a>: arbitrageurs gonna arbitrage. And shorts are going to cover. If you are in either camp, you know what to do. Or have to do.</li>
</ul>


Bain extends the TOB for MCJ Co Ltd (6670 JP). This still needs a bump.
I'd still be setting up the stub here. Or buying Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP) outright. Expect more accretion/recycling. All of which benefits Matheson. And the Keswicks.
Re: Toyota Industries (6201 JP): arbitrageurs gonna arbitrage. And shorts are going to cover. If you are in either camp, you know what to do. Or have to do.


Last Week In Event SPACE: MCJ, Jardine Matheson, Toyota Industries, Zijin Mining/Chifeng Jilong Gold

Travis Lundy

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The three major index holders of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-industries-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4500:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Industries (6201 JP)</a> are two global index providers' indices - M _ _ _ and F _ _ _ - and TSE Indices.</li>
<li>All three have now announced treatment. That leads to a set of trades across an assortment of dates over the next 8 weeks. 🚨 The first is today. 🚨
</li>
<li>Some dates and weights are known for sure. Some are not. Below is a best efforts estimate of weights and amounts. Updates will be added later below in Discussions.</li>
</ul>


The three major index holders of Toyota Industries (6201 JP) are two global index providers' indices - M _ _ _ and F _ _ _ - and TSE Indices.
All three have now announced treatment. That leads to a set of trades across an assortment of dates over the next 8 weeks. 🚨 The first is today. 🚨

Some dates and weights are known for sure. Some are not. Below is a best efforts estimate of weights and amounts. Updates will be added later below in Discussions.


[Quiddity Index] Post TICO (6201 JP) Tender Offer - The Index Flows, SMALLER than Theoretical

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>Following the tender offer completion, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a> and TAPCO own 88.26% of the outstanding shares in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-industries-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4500:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Industries (6201 JP)</a>. Squeeze-out and delisting are coming.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-industries-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4500:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Industries</a> will most likely be deleted from the global indices in one-step. Even if the deletion is done in two steps, the bulk will take place in the near-term.</li>
<li>Some passives appear to have tendered into the offer already, but there will be a lot of selling over the next month.</li>
</ul>


Following the tender offer completion, Toyota Motor (7203 JP) and TAPCO own 88.26% of the outstanding shares in Toyota Industries (6201 JP). Squeeze-out and delisting are coming.

Toyota Industries will most likely be deleted from the global indices in one-step. Even if the deletion is done in two steps, the bulk will take place in the near-term.
Some passives appear to have tendered into the offer already, but there will be a lot of selling over the next month.


Toyota Industries (6201 JP): Huge Staggered Passive Flows

<ul>
<li>I tally 33 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Those arbs metrics and upcoming events are detailed below.</li>
<li>No new deals were discussed on Smartkarma this week; however <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-electric-power-co-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15457:1" rel="noopener">Tokyo Electric Power (TEPCO) (9501 JP)</a> is possibly in the crosshairs. </li>
<li>Key updates/news also took place on: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pepper-money-ltd-australia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24157:1" rel="noopener">Pepper Money (PPM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-industries-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4500:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Industries (6201 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mcj-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14132:1" rel="noopener">MCJ Co Ltd (6670 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rohm-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2953:1" rel="noopener">ROHM Co Ltd (6963 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ijm-corp-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16784:1" rel="noopener">Ijm Corp Bhd (IJM MK)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 33 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Those arbs metrics and upcoming events are detailed below.
No new deals were discussed on Smartkarma this week; however Tokyo Electric Power (TEPCO) (9501 JP) is possibly in the crosshairs. 
Key updates/news also took place on: Pepper Money (PPM AU), Toyota Industries (6201 JP), MCJ Co Ltd (6670 JP), ROHM Co Ltd (6963 JP), and Ijm Corp Bhd (IJM MK).


Asia-Pac M&A Weekly Wrap: Pepper Money, Toyota Industries, MCJ Co, ROHM Co, IJM Corp

Japan

TOYOTA INDUSTRIES CORPORATION, a member of the Toyota Motor Group, assembles motor vehicles and manufactures automotive parts such as engines and air conditioner compressors.  The Company also produces industrial equipment and textile machinery as well as electronic devices such as computer modems and power inverters.

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Toyota Industries (6201 JP)

Asia-Pac M&A, March 2026 Wrap: Rohm, Gunma Bank, Toyota Indust., Nippon Sheet Glass, Echo Marketing

For the month of March, 5 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of just ~US$9bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week In Event SPACE: MCJ, Jardine Matheson, Toyota Industries, Zijin Mining/Chifeng Jilong Gold

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

[Quiddity Index] Post TICO (6201 JP) Tender Offer - The Index Flows, SMALLER than Theoretical

The Toyota Industries (6201 JP) index downweighting/deletion process starts today with M_ seeing selling. F__ is tomorrow. Japan indices start...

Travis Lundy