Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>After the Fudosan deal for TICO was upped to ¥20,600 conditional on financing, and banks confirmed they'd fund it, the deal was extended again to 23 March.</li>
<li>In something of a shock to me, Elliott agreed to tender at that new price. Weeks later I do not quite understand. TAPCO was buying at 0.77-0.78x realtime book. Unbelievable.</li>
<li>The recent downdraft in Toyota Group stock prices reduces that, but TAPCO is still buying TICO at a ¥1.1trln discount to.... book value. And probably a ¥3trn discount to fair.</li>
</ul>


After the Fudosan deal for TICO was upped to ¥20,600 conditional on financing, and banks confirmed they'd fund it, the deal was extended again to 23 March.
In something of a shock to me, Elliott agreed to tender at that new price. Weeks later I do not quite understand. TAPCO was buying at 0.77-0.78x realtime book. Unbelievable.
The recent downdraft in Toyota Group stock prices reduces that, but TAPCO is still buying TICO at a ¥1.1trln discount to.... book value. And probably a ¥3trn discount to fair.


[Japan M&A] TICO Closes Monday - The TOB Is Still WAY Wrong - TAPCO ¥20,600 Bid Gets Est. BVPS ¥25k+

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>I tally 34 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Those arbs metrics and upcoming events are detailed below.</li>
<li>Three new deals were discussed on Smartkarma this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/emmerson-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18705:1" rel="noopener">Emmerson Resources (ERM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rohm-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2953:1" rel="noopener">ROHM Co Ltd (6963 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/avarga-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13105:1" rel="noopener">Avarga Ltd (AVARGA SP)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/avarga-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13105:1" rel="noopener"></a>.</li>
<li>Key updates/news also took place on: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-industries-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4500:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Industries (6201 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/national-storage-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13762:1" rel="noopener">National Storage REIT (NSR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dongfeng-motor-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:910:1" rel="noopener">Dongfeng Motor (489 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ijm-corp-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16784:1" rel="noopener">Ijm Corp Bhd (IJM MK)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 34 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Those arbs metrics and upcoming events are detailed below.
Three new deals were discussed on Smartkarma this week: Emmerson Resources (ERM AU), ROHM Co Ltd (6963 JP), and Avarga Ltd (AVARGA SP).
Key updates/news also took place on: Toyota Industries (6201 JP), National Storage REIT (NSR AU), Dongfeng Motor (489 HK), and Ijm Corp Bhd (IJM MK).


Asia-Pac M&A Weekly Wrap: Toyota Inds, Emmerson Res, Avarga, National Storage, Dongfeng Motors, Ijm

<ul>
<li>The Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-industries-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4500:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Industries (6201 JP)</a> will get done. Be bullish the back end too. It is theoretically possible this could still get blocked. Be bullish that outcome too.</li>
<li>Preceding my comments on Toyota and a quick take on Macau gaming plays, are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>


The Offer for Toyota Industries (6201 JP) will get done. Be bullish the back end too. It is theoretically possible this could still get blocked. Be bullish that outcome too.
Preceding my comments on Toyota and a quick take on Macau gaming plays, are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


StubWorld: Toyota Industries, Macau Gaming Plays

<ul>
<li>If you like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-industries-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4500:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Industries (6201 JP)</a>'s Appraisal Rights case, buy. If a LO investor who held until now and bullish the market, sell now and replace your beta.</li>
<li>Current NAV levels for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prosus-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28104:1" rel="noopener">Prosus NV (PRX NA)</a> are somewhat depressed. To a lesser extent, so is the implied stub (netting off the stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a>).</li>
<li>China has established itself as the global EVs benchmark. But  expect increased competition, overcapacity, and in turn, profit squeeze. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dongfeng-motor-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:910:1" rel="noopener">Dongfeng Motor (489 HK)</a>is trading full ahead of VOYAH's spin-off.</li>
</ul>


If you like Toyota Industries (6201 JP)'s Appraisal Rights case, buy. If a LO investor who held until now and bullish the market, sell now and replace your beta.
Current NAV levels for Prosus NV (PRX NA) are somewhat depressed. To a lesser extent, so is the implied stub (netting off the stake in Tencent (700 HK)).
China has established itself as the global EVs benchmark. But  expect increased competition, overcapacity, and in turn, profit squeeze. Dongfeng Motor (489 HK)is trading full ahead of VOYAH's spin-off.


Last Week In Event SPACE: Toyota Inds., Prosus/Tencent, Dongfeng Motor, WH Group

<ul>
<li>Today during market hours, Toyota Asset Preparatory Co (TAPCO) announced an amendment to its Tender Offer Registration Statement (for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-industries-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4500:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Industries (6201 JP)</a> tender) on EDINET. TDNet confirmation followed. </li>
<li>TAPCO extends, and plans to bump from ¥18,800 to ¥20,600, +1.5% vs last, assuming banks agree. That's above 31Dec25 BVPS but below real-time BVPS, and far below Transaction Structure-adjusted BVPS.</li>
<li>I admit to being surprised. And disappointed. It's admittedly Big Bumpitrage but not a "watershed moment." TAPCO is buying TICO at &lt;0.8x book, and the Opco for &lt;0.15x book.</li>
</ul>


Today during market hours, Toyota Asset Preparatory Co (TAPCO) announced an amendment to its Tender Offer Registration Statement (for the Toyota Industries (6201 JP) tender) on EDINET. TDNet confirmation followed. 
TAPCO extends, and plans to bump from ¥18,800 to ¥20,600, +1.5% vs last, assuming banks agree. That's above 31Dec25 BVPS but below real-time BVPS, and far below Transaction Structure-adjusted BVPS.
I admit to being surprised. And disappointed. It's admittedly Big Bumpitrage but not a "watershed moment." TAPCO is buying TICO at &lt;0.8x book, and the Opco for &lt;0.15x book.


[Japan M&A] TAPCO-TICO (6201) Deal VIII - Toyota Group Bumps, Elliott Agrees, STILL the Wrong Price.

Japan

TOYOTA INDUSTRIES CORPORATION, a member of the Toyota Motor Group, assembles motor vehicles and manufactures automotive parts such as engines and air conditioner compressors.  The Company also produces industrial equipment and textile machinery as well as electronic devices such as computer modems and power inverters.

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Toyota Industries (6201 JP)

[Japan M&A] TICO Closes Monday - The TOB Is Still WAY Wrong - TAPCO ¥20,600 Bid Gets Est. BVPS ¥25k+

The TAPCO deal for TICO closes next Monday. The recent fall in Toyota Motors group share prices has impacted the realtime BVPS but TAPCO is still...

Travis Lundy

Asia-Pac M&A Weekly Wrap: Toyota Inds, Emmerson Res, Avarga, National Storage, Dongfeng Motors, Ijm

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

StubWorld: Toyota Industries, Macau Gaming Plays

The Offer for Toyota Industries (6201 JP) will get done. Be bullish the back end too. It is theoretically possible this could still get blocked. Be...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week In Event SPACE: Toyota Inds., Prosus/Tencent, Dongfeng Motor, WH Group

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

[Japan M&A] TAPCO-TICO (6201) Deal VIII - Toyota Group Bumps, Elliott Agrees, STILL the Wrong Price.

TAPCO caved and extended and raised the price. It kind of feels like an activist caved in agreeing to sell a huge near-cash position at well below...

Travis Lundy

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