External broker reports(aggregated public sources), MNC Sekuritas

MNC Sekuritas

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

MNC Sekuritas, the first wholly-owned subsidiary established by the Group back in 1989, provides a complete range of services, from equity, fixed income, investment banking to providing research to optimize clients’ investments. Thus far, the company has more than 140 points of sales with over 100,000 clients. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>ASII booked revenue of IDR330.9tn in FY24, up 4.5% YoY, in line with 102%/107% of MNCS/consensus estimates.</li><li>Automotive segment recorded sales of IDR133.1tn in FY24 (vs IDR128.2tn in FY23).</li><li>ASII maintained its car market share at 56%, despite wholesale car market sales dropping 14% YoY to 866k units. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

ASII booked revenue of IDR330.9tn in FY24, up 4.5% YoY, in line with 102%/107% of MNCS/consensus estimates.Automotive segment recorded sales of IDR133.1tn in FY24 (vs IDR128.2tn in FY23).ASII maintained its car market share at 56%, despite wholesale car market sales dropping 14% YoY to 866k units. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

ASII IJ - Leveraging Diversification to Counter Soft Automotive Outlook

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

<ul><li>We cut our 4W sales expectation by 5%, resulting in FY25F 4W sales of 900k (+4% yoy), with ASII market share expected to remain at ~56%.</li><li>We cut EBIT est. for financial segment due to slower financing growth and higher CoF, yet expect agri and HE segments to remain strong.</li><li>We cut our FY25F/ FY26F revenue by -2.2%/ -1.7% and net profit by - 0.8%/- 0.7% for. Reiterate Buy rating with a lower TP of Rp5,800.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We cut our 4W sales expectation by 5%, resulting in FY25F 4W sales of 900k (+4% yoy), with ASII market share expected to remain at ~56%.We cut EBIT est. for financial segment due to slower financing growth and higher CoF, yet expect agri and HE segments to remain strong.We cut our FY25F/ FY26F revenue by -2.2%/ -1.7% and net profit by - 0.8%/- 0.7% for. Reiterate Buy rating with a lower TP of Rp5,800.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

ASII.IJ -  Finetuning FY25F Est.: Flattish Earnings Due to Lower 4W Growth Expectation

<ul><li>We expect ASII to meet our FY24F revenue and earnings estimation, which are currently 4% and 3% above consensus, respectively.</li><li>We expect higher-than-expected Komatsu sales, sustained Pama margin, and stable financial segment profit to drive the 4Q24F figures. </li><li>We tweak our auto margin assumption from 1.5% to 1% in 4Q24F, reducing EPS by 0.4%. Reiterate BUY with an unchanged TP of Rp5,900.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We expect ASII to meet our FY24F revenue and earnings estimation, which are currently 4% and 3% above consensus, respectively.We expect higher-than-expected Komatsu sales, sustained Pama margin, and stable financial segment profit to drive the 4Q24F figures. We tweak our auto margin assumption from 1.5% to 1% in 4Q24F, reducing EPS by 0.4%. Reiterate BUY with an unchanged TP of Rp5,900.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Astra International (ASII.IJ): In-Line with Ours, Slightly Above Consensus

<ul><li>Price discounts were relatively steep at Rp30-60mn (7-9%), yet ASPs for 2025 models have also increased by 1-3%. Opsen tax remains a risk.</li><li>Non-Japanese players continue to steal the spotlight due to discounts and new models, with BYD continuing to show its strength.</li><li>Despite the above, we think the market has underappreciated stable ASII’s market share at ~56% for past 2 years. Reiterate BUY for ASII.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Price discounts were relatively steep at Rp30-60mn (7-9%), yet ASPs for 2025 models have also increased by 1-3%. Opsen tax remains a risk.Non-Japanese players continue to steal the spotlight due to discounts and new models, with BYD continuing to show its strength.Despite the above, we think the market has underappreciated stable ASII’s market share at ~56% for past 2 years. Reiterate BUY for ASII.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

ASII IJ -  Non-Japanese Players Steal the Spotlight, but Not at the Cost of ASII’s Market Share

<ul><li>The lower interest rate has historically had an inverse correlation with ASII share price and is positive for 4W sales, with a 9-16 months lag.</li><li>We expect 4W sales to improve as ‘opsen’ tax is postponed, but higher VAT may compress margin upside (FY25F: 1.6% vs ~2% in FY22-23).</li><li>We reiterate our Buy rating with a TP of Rp5,900. ASII is a good pick for an interest-rate play with undemanding valuation and ROE of 15-16%.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The lower interest rate has historically had an inverse correlation with ASII share price and is positive for 4W sales, with a 9-16 months lag.We expect 4W sales to improve as ‘opsen’ tax is postponed, but higher VAT may compress margin upside (FY25F: 1.6% vs ~2% in FY22-23).We reiterate our Buy rating with a TP of Rp5,900. ASII is a good pick for an interest-rate play with undemanding valuation and ROE of 15-16%.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Astra International - Potential Boost from Rate Cut and Opsen Tax Postponement

Indonesia

PT Astra International Tbk assembles and distributes automobiles, motorcycles, and their related spare parts.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company also operates in the mining, development of plantations, financial and information technology.

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Astra International (ASII IJ)

ASII IJ - Leveraging Diversification to Counter Soft Automotive Outlook

Automotive segment recorded sales of IDR133.1tn in FY24 (vs IDR128.2tn in FY23). ASII maintained its car market share at 56%, despite wholesale car...

MNC Sekuritas

ASII.IJ - Finetuning FY25F Est.: Flattish Earnings Due to Lower 4W Growth Expectation

We cut our 4W sales expectation by 5%, resulting in FY25F 4W sales of 900k (+4% yoy), with ASII market share expected to remain at ~56%.

BRI Danareksa Research