AI | Semiconductors | Commodities, Mint Finance

Raghav Vashisht

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Nvidia is transitioning from a GPU vendor to a full-stack systems supplier for AI infrastructure, with the Data Centre segment driven more by integrated rack-scale deployments than standalone accelerators.</li>
<li>Management positions Nvidia as the reference architecture for a “$3–4 trillion annual AI infrastructure build”, but finished goods inventories are up 90%+ amid "sold-out cloud capacity."</li>
<li>The rapid shift toward rack-scale systems introduces new ecosystem tensions, as Nvidia’s move into full system design increasingly overlaps with the domain of OEM partners.</li>
</ul>


Nvidia is transitioning from a GPU vendor to a full-stack systems supplier for AI infrastructure, with the Data Centre segment driven more by integrated rack-scale deployments than standalone accelerators.
Management positions Nvidia as the reference architecture for a “$3–4 trillion annual AI infrastructure build”, but finished goods inventories are up 90%+ amid "sold-out cloud capacity."
The rapid shift toward rack-scale systems introduces new ecosystem tensions, as Nvidia’s move into full system design increasingly overlaps with the domain of OEM partners.


Sold Out Yet Stockpiled: Nvidia’s Q3 Highlights Potential Deployment Limits

Equity/Index & Cross Asset Volatility Specialist, Cameron Design

Jay Cameron

Equity/Index & Cross Asset Volatility Specialist

Cameron Design

We specialize in financial products and volatility. Our strategies balance speed, data, and risk control to capture opportunities across global markets. Our research leverages AI and data analytics to continuously refine our algorithms and adapt to evolving market dynamics.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Performance was in line with estimates, with total revenue of $57.01B and an expanding Non-GAAP Gross Margin of 73.6%. Management issued robust Q4 revenue guidance of $65B.</li>
<li>Despite strong fundamentals, the stock's muted reaction and subsequent slide highlight the risk of unusual, synchronized cross-asset market drops, signaling a need to examine, and hedge against potential systemic vulnerability.</li>
<li>The synchronized cross-asset market drop on November 20, lacking a clear catalyst, suggests hidden systemic risk driven in part by algorithmic positioning.</li>
</ul>


Performance was in line with estimates, with total revenue of $57.01B and an expanding Non-GAAP Gross Margin of 73.6%. Management issued robust Q4 revenue guidance of $65B.
Despite strong fundamentals, the stock's muted reaction and subsequent slide highlight the risk of unusual, synchronized cross-asset market drops, signaling a need to examine, and hedge against potential systemic vulnerability.
The synchronized cross-asset market drop on November 20, lacking a clear catalyst, suggests hidden systemic risk driven in part by algorithmic positioning.


4-Hour Contagion: NVIDIA Q3, Advantest, the AI Flow Footprint on the Global Synchronized Selloff

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>NVDA has $500bn revenue visibility for Blackwell and Rubin. This implies that Data Center Computing revenues will increase by ~70% in 2026.</li>
<li>Cloud capacity is fully utilized, 6-year old GPU are fully utilized. Don’t worry about depreciation theories. But the gap between capex and future revenues / profits will remain.</li>
<li>Consensus is ~20% too low for FY27 and possibly more for FY28, Stock trading below avg PEx.</li>
</ul>


NVDA has $500bn revenue visibility for Blackwell and Rubin. This implies that Data Center Computing revenues will increase by ~70% in 2026.
Cloud capacity is fully utilized, 6-year old GPU are fully utilized. Don’t worry about depreciation theories. But the gap between capex and future revenues / profits will remain.
Consensus is ~20% too low for FY27 and possibly more for FY28, Stock trading below avg PEx.


NVDA Strong Quarter, Strong Guidance, Consensus ~20% Too Low, Stock Is Not Expensive

Writing about Companies with an Unfair Advantage, Unfair Advantage

Unfair Advantage

Writing about Companies with an Unfair Advantage

I write about companies that have an unfair advantage. I might invest in them as well.

<ul><li>The market waited with bated breath as NVIDIA released their quarterly earnings yesterday on 19th November, 2025. To almost no one’s surprise, they beat the estimates again.</li><li>The company is a juggernaut to say the least and has added $1.9 Trillion in market cap in the last 8 months!</li><li>That is more than Tesla or Meta's market cap themselves. The statistics are almost unbelievable.</li></ul>

The market waited with bated breath as NVIDIA released their quarterly earnings yesterday on 19th November, 2025. To almost no one’s surprise, they beat the estimates again.The company is a juggernaut to say the least and has added $1.9 Trillion in market cap in the last 8 months!That is more than Tesla or Meta's market cap themselves. The statistics are almost unbelievable.

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

<ul>
<li>NVIDIA’s AI Factory Buildout Signals Multi-Year Demand for Taiwan’s Supply Chain</li>
<li>TSMC’s Growth Outlook De-Risked by NVIDIA's Smooth Transition to GB300</li>
<li>NVIDIA's Networking Segment Surge Expands System-Level Product Integration Opportunity for Taiwan Ecosystem</li>
</ul>


NVIDIA’s AI Factory Buildout Signals Multi-Year Demand for Taiwan’s Supply Chain
TSMC’s Growth Outlook De-Risked by NVIDIA's Smooth Transition to GB300
NVIDIA's Networking Segment Surge Expands System-Level Product Integration Opportunity for Taiwan Ecosystem


NVIDIA Results: Taiwan Take-Aways -- Demand Visibility Implies Strength for Key Suppliers

United States

NVIDIA Corporation designs, develops, and markets three dimensional (3D) graphics processors and related software.  The Company's products provide interactive 3D graphics to the mainstream personal computer market.

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NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)

Sold Out Yet Stockpiled: Nvidia’s Q3 Highlights Potential Deployment Limits

Nvidia shifts focus to AI infrastructure, aiming to become a full-stack systems supplier, but faces challenges with hyperscaler capex and rising...

Mint Finance

4-Hour Contagion: NVIDIA Q3, Advantest, the AI Flow Footprint on the Global Synchronized Selloff

NVIDIA's strong Q3 results and Q4 guidance overshadowed by systemic market reaction, highlighting potential systemic vulnerability in cross-asset...

Jay Cameron

NVDA Strong Quarter, Strong Guidance, Consensus ~20% Too Low, Stock Is Not Expensive

NVDA. Consensus estimates for FY27 are 20% too low, with potential for even more growth in FY28. Stock is trading below average PEx.

Nicolas Baratte

Worsening NVIDIA Earnings Quality

The market waited with bated breath as NVIDIA released their quarterly earnings yesterday on 19th November, 2025. To almost no one’s surprise, they...

Unfair Advantage

NVIDIA Results: Taiwan Take-Aways -- Demand Visibility Implies Strength for Key Suppliers

NVIDIA's expansion and smooth transition to new products signal long-term demand for Taiwan's supply chain and growth opportunities for TSMC.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Dividend (Yield)

Sold Out Yet Stockpiled: Nvidia’s Q3 Highlights Potential Deployment Limits

​Nvidia shifts focus to AI infrastructure, aiming to become a full-stack systems supplier, but faces challenges with hyperscaler capex and rising...

Mint Finance

4-Hour Contagion: NVIDIA Q3, Advantest, the AI Flow Footprint on the Global Synchronized Selloff

​NVIDIA's strong Q3 results and Q4 guidance overshadowed by systemic market reaction, highlighting potential systemic vulnerability in cross-asset...

Jay Cameron

NVDA Strong Quarter, Strong Guidance, Consensus ~20% Too Low, Stock Is Not Expensive

​NVDA. Consensus estimates for FY27 are 20% too low, with potential for even more growth in FY28. Stock is trading below average PEx.

Nicolas Baratte

Worsening NVIDIA Earnings Quality

The market waited with bated breath as NVIDIA released their quarterly earnings yesterday on 19th November, 2025. To almost no one’s surprise, they...

Unfair Advantage

NVIDIA Results: Taiwan Take-Aways -- Demand Visibility Implies Strength for Key Suppliers

​NVIDIA's expansion and smooth transition to new products signal long-term demand for Taiwan's supply chain and growth opportunities for TSMC.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Nvidia shifts focus to AI infrastructure, aiming to become a full-stack systems supplier, but faces challenges with hyperscaler capex and rising...

NVIDIA's strong Q3 results and Q4 guidance overshadowed by systemic market reaction, highlighting potential systemic vulnerability in cross-asset...

NVDA. Consensus estimates for FY27 are 20% too low, with potential for even more growth in FY28. Stock is trading below average PEx.

NVIDIA's expansion and smooth transition to new products signal long-term demand for Taiwan's supply chain and growth opportunities for TSMC.