External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

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External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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<ul><li>Axis Bank: Axis Bank’s (AXSB) Q3FY26 earnings marginally beat our estimates on the back of strong growth on both sides of the balance sheet, reversal of tax expense (utilized to create provisioning buffer of INR20bn), and lower provisioning, offset by soft operating performance</li><li>Loan growth (18.5% YoY, 6% QoQ) was healthy, driven largely by wholesale and SME segments</li><li>Deposit growth (~14% YoY, 6% QoQ) was healthy, with CASA ratio improving to 39.6% (+49bps QoQ)</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Axis Bank: Axis Bank’s (AXSB) Q3FY26 earnings marginally beat our estimates on the back of strong growth on both sides of the balance sheet, reversal of tax expense (utilized to create provisioning buffer of INR20bn), and lower provisioning, offset by soft operating performanceLoan growth (18.5% YoY, 6% QoQ) was healthy, driven largely by wholesale and SME segmentsDeposit growth (~14% YoY, 6% QoQ) was healthy, with CASA ratio improving to 39.6% (+49bps QoQ)Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>India’s financial sector has remained resilient amid global uncertainties but rising geopolitical tensions, particularly conflicts affecting energy markets and trade flows, pose both challenges and opportunities</li><li>Banks and NBFCs are navigating a complex landscape shaped by external shocks, domestic elections, inflationary pressures, and evolving policy responses</li><li>The RBI has maintained a calibrated approach, balancing inflation control with growth support</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

India’s financial sector has remained resilient amid global uncertainties but rising geopolitical tensions, particularly conflicts affecting energy markets and trade flows, pose both challenges and opportunitiesBanks and NBFCs are navigating a complex landscape shaped by external shocks, domestic elections, inflationary pressures, and evolving policy responsesThe RBI has maintained a calibrated approach, balancing inflation control with growth supportContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Leveraged Financials: Risk Premium on the Rise, Flight to Safety

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

<ul>
<li>Private banks suffered 2 brutal years of margin compression, rising bad loans in unsecured portfolios, and a deposit mobilisation war that squeezed profitability across the board.</li>
<li>
Deposit repricing tailwinds and CASA recovery support a Q4 NIM inflection, but MSME export stress from the West Asia conflict remains a credible near-term risk.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/icici-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:547:1" rel="noopener">ICICI Bank Ltd (ICICIBC IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)</a> offer the clearest risk-reward at current valuations; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kotak-mahindra-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:126:1" rel="noopener">Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN)</a> reset creates opportunity.</li>
</ul>


Private banks suffered 2 brutal years of margin compression, rising bad loans in unsecured portfolios, and a deposit mobilisation war that squeezed profitability across the board.

Deposit repricing tailwinds and CASA recovery support a Q4 NIM inflection, but MSME export stress from the West Asia conflict remains a credible near-term risk.

ICICI Bank Ltd (ICICIBC IN) and HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) offer the clearest risk-reward at current valuations; Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN) reset creates opportunity.


Private Banks: A Turnaround Is Brewing, But Trust Is Still Being Rebuilt

<ul>
<li>For the first time in 14 years, PSU banks outpaced private peers in loan growth, clocking 13.1% YoY in FY25 versus 9% for private banks.</li>
<li>PSU banks' improved CD ratios and cleaned-up balance sheets let them lend more freely as private banks hit funding constraints.</li>
<li>The market share shift may be structural, not cyclical. Investors pricing premium valuations into private banks face a rethink.</li>
</ul>


For the first time in 14 years, PSU banks outpaced private peers in loan growth, clocking 13.1% YoY in FY25 versus 9% for private banks.
PSU banks' improved CD ratios and cleaned-up balance sheets let them lend more freely as private banks hit funding constraints.
The market share shift may be structural, not cyclical. Investors pricing premium valuations into private banks face a rethink.


The Great Reversal: India's Public Sector Banks Outscore Private Rivals

<ul><li>Kotak Mahindra Bank: Kotak Mahindra Bank’s (KMB) Q3FY26 earnings were below estimates, as flattish margins, soft traction in fee income, and relatively high opex intensity was partly offset by higher growth on both sides of the balance sheet</li><li>Healthy loan growth (16% YoY) was driven by mortgages, business banking, SME segments</li><li>Deposit growth (~14% YoY) was strong with CASA ratio at 41.3% (-101bps QoQ) and softer than usual traction in CA balances</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Kotak Mahindra Bank: Kotak Mahindra Bank’s (KMB) Q3FY26 earnings were below estimates, as flattish margins, soft traction in fee income, and relatively high opex intensity was partly offset by higher growth on both sides of the balance sheetHealthy loan growth (16% YoY) was driven by mortgages, business banking, SME segmentsDeposit growth (~14% YoY) was strong with CASA ratio at 41.3% (-101bps QoQ) and softer than usual traction in CA balancesContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Kotak Mahindra Bank, Axis Bank, UltraTech Cement...

India

Axis Bank Limited provides a full range of banking services throughout India. The Group's activities include retail banking, investment management, merchant banking, treasury and NRI services, cash and credit management services, and ATM facilities.

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Axis Bank Ltd (AXSB IN)

HSIE Results Daily: Axis Bank, RBL Bank

Axis Bank’s (AXSB) Q3FY26 earnings marginally beat our estimates on the back of strong growth on both sides of the balance sheet, reversal of tax...

HDFC Securities

Leveraged Financials: Risk Premium on the Rise, Flight to Safety

Banks and NBFCs are navigating a complex landscape shaped by external shocks, domestic elections, inflationary pressures, and evolving policy...

HDFC Securities

Private Banks: A Turnaround Is Brewing, But Trust Is Still Being Rebuilt

Private banks faced 2 tough years with margin pressure and bad loans, but Q4 NIM improvement expected; ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank offer good risk...

Nimish Maheshwari

The Great Reversal: India's Public Sector Banks Outscore Private Rivals

PSU banks surpass private peers in loan growth for the first time in 14 years, signaling a potential structural shift in market share.

Nimish Maheshwari

HSIE Results Daily: Kotak Mahindra Bank, Axis Bank, UltraTech Cement...

Kotak Mahindra Bank’s (KMB) Q3FY26 earnings were below estimates, as flattish margins, soft traction in fee income, and relatively high opex...

HDFC Securities

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HSIE Results Daily: Axis Bank, RBL Bank

Axis Bank’s (AXSB) Q3FY26 earnings marginally beat our estimates on the back of strong growth on both sides of the balance sheet, reversal of tax...

HDFC Securities

Leveraged Financials: Risk Premium on the Rise, Flight to Safety

Banks and NBFCs are navigating a complex landscape shaped by external shocks, domestic elections, inflationary pressures, and evolving policy...

HDFC Securities

Private Banks: A Turnaround Is Brewing, But Trust Is Still Being Rebuilt

​Private banks faced 2 tough years with margin pressure and bad loans, but Q4 NIM improvement expected; ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank offer good risk...

Nimish Maheshwari

The Great Reversal: India's Public Sector Banks Outscore Private Rivals

​PSU banks surpass private peers in loan growth for the first time in 14 years, signaling a potential structural shift in market share.

Nimish Maheshwari

HSIE Results Daily: Kotak Mahindra Bank, Axis Bank, UltraTech Cement...

Kotak Mahindra Bank’s (KMB) Q3FY26 earnings were below estimates, as flattish margins, soft traction in fee income, and relatively high opex...

HDFC Securities

Private banks faced 2 tough years with margin pressure and bad loans, but Q4 NIM improvement expected; ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank offer good risk...

PSU banks surpass private peers in loan growth for the first time in 14 years, signaling a potential structural shift in market share.