Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The banking sector will likely see earnings growth bottom out in FY26, with the second half potentially performing better than the first half as deposit rate reductions eventually flow through.</li>
<li>This divergence between declining lending rates and sticky deposit costs is the core driver of NIM compression.</li>
<li>This monetary easing is expected to exert downward pressure on banks' lending yields, impacting NIMs, particularly in the first half of fiscal year 2026 (1HFY26). </li>
</ul>


The banking sector will likely see earnings growth bottom out in FY26, with the second half potentially performing better than the first half as deposit rate reductions eventually flow through.
This divergence between declining lending rates and sticky deposit costs is the core driver of NIM compression.
This monetary easing is expected to exert downward pressure on banks' lending yields, impacting NIMs, particularly in the first half of fiscal year 2026 (1HFY26). 


Impact of Rate Cut on Indian Banking Sector: NIMs & Earnings to Contract Further Amid Slowdown

<ul>
<li>Indian banks' average Net Interest Margins fell 21 basis points in FY25, projected to decline another 9 basis points in FY2026 due to RBI rate cuts and deposit competition pressures.  </li>
<li>Robust credit growth continues while deposit growth lags increasing funding costs. Nonperforming Assets for public and private banks are projected to stabilize or decline.  </li>
<li>Contracting margins squeeze core income, public banks may see profit decline FY26 despite stable asset quality aiding earnings.</li>
</ul>


Indian banks' average Net Interest Margins fell 21 basis points in FY25, projected to decline another 9 basis points in FY2026 due to RBI rate cuts and deposit competition pressures.  
Robust credit growth continues while deposit growth lags increasing funding costs. Nonperforming Assets for public and private banks are projected to stabilize or decline.  
Contracting margins squeeze core income, public banks may see profit decline FY26 despite stable asset quality aiding earnings.


Impact Of Contracting NIM On Indian Banks Earnings

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass when we discussed SPX 5110-5120 as a bounce spot and a level to trade [long] against.</li>
<li>Possible that major lows are in at 4800-4820 SPX and $402-$412 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), as discussed in 4/10/25 Int'l Compass. For now we want to remain near-term bullish</li>
<li>200-Day MAs on ACWI-US and SPX are spots where they <em>could</em> roll over. This is just a lean; if we see no reason to sell at those levels, we won't.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass when we discussed SPX 5110-5120 as a bounce spot and a level to trade [long] against.
Possible that major lows are in at 4800-4820 SPX and $402-$412 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), as discussed in 4/10/25 Int'l Compass. For now we want to remain near-term bullish
200-Day MAs on ACWI-US and SPX are spots where they could roll over. This is just a lean; if we see no reason to sell at those levels, we won't.


Invest As If the Lows Are In; EURO STOXX 50 and TOPIX Reclaim Key Levels

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

<ul>
<li>India's top private banks, HDFC, ICICI, and Axis, saw a significant slowdown in credit growth to 11% in Q4 FY25 from 15-20% of expectations, i.e down from 16.5% last year</li>
<li>This moderation is due to softer loan demand, strategic balance sheet adjustments, and HDFC's merger in it’s case.</li>
<li>Despite this, asset quality remains strong, and the banks are focused on building a solid deposit base for future growth.</li>
</ul>


India's top private banks, HDFC, ICICI, and Axis, saw a significant slowdown in credit growth to 11% in Q4 FY25 from 15-20% of expectations, i.e down from 16.5% last year
This moderation is due to softer loan demand, strategic balance sheet adjustments, and HDFC's merger in it’s case.
Despite this, asset quality remains strong, and the banks are focused on building a solid deposit base for future growth.


Thematic Report : Why Is India's Banking Witnessing a Slowdown in Credit Growth?

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/axis-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:768:1" rel="noopener">Axis Bank Ltd (AXSB IN)</a> is considering a majority stake sale in its shadow-banking unit, Axis Finance, valued at $900 million-$1 billion.</li>
<li>India plans a $1 billion subsidy to boost domestic solar wafer and ingot production, reducing reliance on China.</li>
<li>PAG, backed by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/blackstone-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27166:1" rel="noopener">Blackstone (BX US)</a> , is exploring the sale of its 54% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nuvama-wealth-management-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40316:1" rel="noopener">Nuvama Wealth Management (NUVAMA IN)</a> Management for $1.2 billion.</li>
</ul>



Axis Bank Ltd (AXSB IN) is considering a majority stake sale in its shadow-banking unit, Axis Finance, valued at $900 million-$1 billion.
India plans a $1 billion subsidy to boost domestic solar wafer and ingot production, reducing reliance on China.
PAG, backed by Blackstone (BX US) , is exploring the sale of its 54% stake in Nuvama Wealth Management (NUVAMA IN) Management for $1.2 billion.


#111 India Insight: Axis Bank, India Solar Push, PAG Sell: $1B+ Deals in Focus

India

Axis Bank Limited provides a full range of banking services throughout India. The Group's activities include retail banking, investment management, merchant banking, treasury and NRI services, cash and credit management services, and ATM facilities.

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Axis Bank Ltd (AXSB IN)

Impact of Rate Cut on Indian Banking Sector: NIMs & Earnings to Contract Further Amid Slowdown

Banking sector earnings growth expected to improve in FY26 as deposit rate reductions flow through, but NIM compression likely due to declining...

Nimish Maheshwari

Impact Of Contracting NIM On Indian Banks Earnings

Indian banks face declining Net Interest Margins in FY25 and FY26 due to RBI rate cuts and deposit competition, impacting profit despite stable...

Nimish Maheshwari

Invest As If the Lows Are In; EURO STOXX 50 and TOPIX Reclaim Key Levels

Invest As If the Lows Are In; EURO $STOXX 50 and $TOPIX Reclaim Key Levels; Still near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass report. Possible...

Vermilion Research

Thematic Report : Why Is India's Banking Witnessing a Slowdown in Credit Growth?

India's top private banks experience slowdown in credit growth to 11% in Q4 FY25, down from expectations, due to softer loan demand and strategic...

Sudarshan Bhandari

#111 India Insight: Axis Bank, India Solar Push, PAG Sell: $1B+ Deals in Focus

Axis Bank considers selling majority stake in Axis Finance, India plans $1 billion subsidy for solar production, PAG explores selling stake in...

Sudarshan Bhandari

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Impact of Rate Cut on Indian Banking Sector: NIMs & Earnings to Contract Further Amid Slowdown

​Banking sector earnings growth expected to improve in FY26 as deposit rate reductions flow through, but NIM compression likely due to declining...

Nimish Maheshwari

Impact Of Contracting NIM On Indian Banks Earnings

​Indian banks face declining Net Interest Margins in FY25 and FY26 due to RBI rate cuts and deposit competition, impacting profit despite stable...

Nimish Maheshwari

Invest As If the Lows Are In; EURO STOXX 50 and TOPIX Reclaim Key Levels

Invest As If the Lows Are In; EURO $STOXX 50 and $TOPIX Reclaim Key Levels; Still near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass report. Possible...

Vermilion Research

Thematic Report : Why Is India's Banking Witnessing a Slowdown in Credit Growth?

​India's top private banks experience slowdown in credit growth to 11% in Q4 FY25, down from expectations, due to softer loan demand and strategic...

Sudarshan Bhandari

#111 India Insight: Axis Bank, India Solar Push, PAG Sell: $1B+ Deals in Focus

​Axis Bank considers selling majority stake in Axis Finance, India plans $1 billion subsidy for solar production, PAG explores selling stake in...

Sudarshan Bhandari

Banking sector earnings growth expected to improve in FY26 as deposit rate reductions flow through, but NIM compression likely due to declining...

Indian banks face declining Net Interest Margins in FY25 and FY26 due to RBI rate cuts and deposit competition, impacting profit despite stable...

India's top private banks experience slowdown in credit growth to 11% in Q4 FY25, down from expectations, due to softer loan demand and strategic...

Axis Bank considers selling majority stake in Axis Finance, India plans $1 billion subsidy for solar production, PAG explores selling stake in...