Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Headline CPI inflation stayed near 3.6%YoY for the second consecutive month in Aug'24, and core inflation remained benign at 3.4%YoY. A 25bp rate cut remains certain at the Oct'24 MPC.</li>
<li>Although Sep-Oct'24 inflation is likely to average 5%YoY (because of base effects), the strong monsoon should deliver a bountiful kharif harvest, bringing headline inflation back down to 4%YoY in Jan-Mar'25. </li>
<li>We expect the policy rate to decline by 25bp at each of the next four MPC meetings, to 5.5% by Apr'25. Rate sensitive sectors like banks, property, auto-companies will benefit. </li>
</ul>


Headline CPI inflation stayed near 3.6%YoY for the second consecutive month in Aug'24, and core inflation remained benign at 3.4%YoY. A 25bp rate cut remains certain at the Oct'24 MPC.
Although Sep-Oct'24 inflation is likely to average 5%YoY (because of base effects), the strong monsoon should deliver a bountiful kharif harvest, bringing headline inflation back down to 4%YoY in Jan-Mar'25. 
We expect the policy rate to decline by 25bp at each of the next four MPC meetings, to 5.5% by Apr'25. Rate sensitive sectors like banks, property, auto-companies will benefit. 


India: CPI Inflation Below Target for 2nd Month Signals Rapid Rate Cuts Ahead

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Beat the Street

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Read Business Not Stock Prices

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Reliance Industries obtained over $7 billion in offshore financing for capital expenditure and debt refinancing.</li>
<li>Adani Enterprises plans a $1 billion share sale via a Qualified Institutional Placement.</li>
<li>Marico resumes operations in Bangladesh after political unrest, diversify market presence.</li>
</ul>


Reliance Industries obtained over $7 billion in offshore financing for capital expenditure and debt refinancing.
Adani Enterprises plans a $1 billion share sale via a Qualified Institutional Placement.
Marico resumes operations in Bangladesh after political unrest, diversify market presence.


# 43 India Insight: Reliance Offshore Financing, Adani QIP, Marico Diversify Market Presence

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Larsen &amp; Toubro: Larsen &amp; Toubro (LT) reported revenue/EBITDA/APAT at INR 551.2/56.2/27.8bn, a beat/(miss) of 7.6/0.7/(6.6)%</li><li>P&amp;M margins came in at 7.6% (+20bps YoY) and LT expects to maintain a positive YoY margin expansion trend in ensuing quarters and retained 8.2-8.25% guidance for FY25</li><li>Despite Q1FY25 being an election quarter/lower labour availability, LT reported strong 15% revenue growth and maintained 15/10% revenue/order inflow guidance for FY25</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Larsen &amp; Toubro: Larsen &amp; Toubro (LT) reported revenue/EBITDA/APAT at INR 551.2/56.2/27.8bn, a beat/(miss) of 7.6/0.7/(6.6)%P&amp;M margins came in at 7.6% (+20bps YoY) and LT expects to maintain a positive YoY margin expansion trend in ensuing quarters and retained 8.2-8.25% guidance for FY25Despite Q1FY25 being an election quarter/lower labour availability, LT reported strong 15% revenue growth and maintained 15/10% revenue/order inflow guidance for FY25Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Larsen & Toubro, Axis Bank, SBI Life Insurance, SRF, Petronet LNG

<ul>
<li>Paytm and Axis Bank collaborate to enhance POS solutions, integrating advanced card payment devices.</li>
<li>Gland Pharma and Zydus Lifesciences secure key USFDA approvals for new medications.</li>
<li>Tata Consumer announces a Rs 3,000 crore rights issue to bolster financial position and growth.</li>
</ul>


Paytm and Axis Bank collaborate to enhance POS solutions, integrating advanced card payment devices.
Gland Pharma and Zydus Lifesciences secure key USFDA approvals for new medications.
Tata Consumer announces a Rs 3,000 crore rights issue to bolster financial position and growth.


# 33 India Insight: Paytm Collaborates with Axis, Gland Pharma Approval, Tata Consumer Right Issue

<ul><li>Given the rising competitive intensity for low-cost and granular deposits facing the banking system, loan-deposit ratios at historical highs, and expected rate cuts towards the back-end of FY25, we believe banks are faced with the challenge of quality deposit mobilisation, elevated funding costs (lagged deposit re-pricing) and softer incremental spreads</li><li>As banks and NBFCs navigate the growth-margin trade-off, we argue that the combination of lower growth and lower spreads is likely to keep valuations under check, especially of mid-sized, high-growth franchises</li><li>While we expect system-wide growth to decelerate by 90-100 bps from FY24 levels, we are conservative on incremental spreads across our coverage universe, pencilling in 50bps of rate cuts starting Q4FY25 (blended FY25 NIMs at 12-15bps below FY24)</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Given the rising competitive intensity for low-cost and granular deposits facing the banking system, loan-deposit ratios at historical highs, and expected rate cuts towards the back-end of FY25, we believe banks are faced with the challenge of quality deposit mobilisation, elevated funding costs (lagged deposit re-pricing) and softer incremental spreadsAs banks and NBFCs navigate the growth-margin trade-off, we argue that the combination of lower growth and lower spreads is likely to keep valuations under check, especially of mid-sized, high-growth franchisesWhile we expect system-wide growth to decelerate by 90-100 bps from FY24 levels, we are conservative on incremental spreads across our coverage universe, pencilling in 50bps of rate cuts starting Q4FY25 (blended FY25 NIMs at 12-15bps below FY24)Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Leveraged Financials: The Liquidity Conundrum

India

Axis Bank Limited provides a full range of banking services throughout India. The Group's activities include retail banking, investment management, merchant banking, treasury and NRI services, cash and credit management services, and ATM facilities.

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Axis Bank Ltd (AXSB IN)

India: CPI Inflation Below Target for 2nd Month Signals Rapid Rate Cuts Ahead

With headline and core inflation at 3.6% and 3.4%YoY respectively, a rate cut is certain in Oct'24. Bountiful harvest to keep inflation benign,...

Prasenjit K. Basu

# 43 India Insight: Reliance Offshore Financing, Adani QIP, Marico Diversify Market Presence

Reliance Industries secures $7B offshore financing, Adani Enterprises plans $1B share sale, Marico resumes operations in Bangladesh.

Sudarshan Bhandari

HSIE Results Daily: Larsen & Toubro, Axis Bank, SBI Life Insurance, SRF, Petronet LNG

Larsen & Toubro: Larsen & Toubro (LT) reported revenue/EBITDA/APAT at INR 551.2/56.2/27.8bn, a beat/(miss) of 7.6/0.7/(6.6)%

HDFC Securities

# 33 India Insight: Paytm Collaborates with Axis, Gland Pharma Approval, Tata Consumer Right Issue

Paytm and Axis Bank team up for improved POS solutions, Gland Pharma and Zydus Lifesciences receive USFDA nods, Tata Consumer plans Rs 3,000 crore...

Sudarshan Bhandari

Leveraged Financials: The Liquidity Conundrum

Our hypothesis remains anchored around strong retail deposit franchises and declining spreads over the next 12 months, coupled with the...

HDFC Securities

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52-week Range

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India: CPI Inflation Below Target for 2nd Month Signals Rapid Rate Cuts Ahead

​With headline and core inflation at 3.6% and 3.4%YoY respectively, a rate cut is certain in Oct'24. Bountiful harvest to keep inflation benign,...

Prasenjit K. Basu

# 43 India Insight: Reliance Offshore Financing, Adani QIP, Marico Diversify Market Presence

​Reliance Industries secures $7B offshore financing, Adani Enterprises plans $1B share sale, Marico resumes operations in Bangladesh.

Sudarshan Bhandari

HSIE Results Daily: Larsen & Toubro, Axis Bank, SBI Life Insurance, SRF, Petronet LNG

Larsen & Toubro: Larsen & Toubro (LT) reported revenue/EBITDA/APAT at INR 551.2/56.2/27.8bn, a beat/(miss) of 7.6/0.7/(6.6)%

HDFC Securities

# 33 India Insight: Paytm Collaborates with Axis, Gland Pharma Approval, Tata Consumer Right Issue

​Paytm and Axis Bank team up for improved POS solutions, Gland Pharma and Zydus Lifesciences receive USFDA nods, Tata Consumer plans Rs 3,000 crore...

Sudarshan Bhandari

Leveraged Financials: The Liquidity Conundrum

Our hypothesis remains anchored around strong retail deposit franchises and declining spreads over the next 12 months, coupled with the...

HDFC Securities

With headline and core inflation at 3.6% and 3.4%YoY respectively, a rate cut is certain in Oct'24. Bountiful harvest to keep inflation benign,...

Reliance Industries secures $7B offshore financing, Adani Enterprises plans $1B share sale, Marico resumes operations in Bangladesh.

Paytm and Axis Bank team up for improved POS solutions, Gland Pharma and Zydus Lifesciences receive USFDA nods, Tata Consumer plans Rs 3,000 crore...