Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>BHP launched a bid for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oz-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1138:1" rel="noopener">OZ Minerals (OZL AU)</a>. OZ has rejected it as being too low. BHP said the Offer provides certainty of funding growth. They are both right</li>
<li>This Offer price for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lifestyle-international-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:112:1" rel="noopener">Lifestyle International Holdings (1212 HK)</a> is probably sufficient to get up. It has been declared final for that reason. Optically $6/share was a more reasonable level.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nexon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16032:1" rel="noopener">Nexon (3659 JP)</a> announced another ¥100bn buyback over three years. However, the buyback is too small to pay back the Kim family inheritance tax obligations. </li>
</ul>


BHP launched a bid for OZ Minerals (OZL AU). OZ has rejected it as being too low. BHP said the Offer provides certainty of funding growth. They are both right
This Offer price for Lifestyle International Holdings (1212 HK) is probably sufficient to get up. It has been declared final for that reason. Optically $6/share was a more reasonable level.

Nexon (3659 JP) announced another ¥100bn buyback over three years. However, the buyback is too small to pay back the Kim family inheritance tax obligations. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Softbank, OZ Minerals, Lifestyle, Nexon, Magic Empire, Swire Pacific

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-insurance-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:840:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Insurance (7181 JP)</a> reported soft Q1 Tuesday on negative existing policy premium growth and higher (covid-related) underwriting claims costs. Guidance was unchanged but JPI also announced a buyback.</li>
<li>The buyback structure is designed to keep <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)</a> under 50% to continue to abide by the strictures and goals of the Japan Postal Privatisation Act.</li>
<li>50% or more will be done in a ToSTNeT-3 buyback Thursday morning 12 August. The rest will be bought on market. Impact is non-negligible. And JPI is cheap cheap cheap.</li>
</ul>



Japan Post Insurance (7181 JP) reported soft Q1 Tuesday on negative existing policy premium growth and higher (covid-related) underwriting claims costs. Guidance was unchanged but JPI also announced a buyback.
The buyback structure is designed to keep Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) under 50% to continue to abide by the strictures and goals of the Japan Postal Privatisation Act.
50% or more will be done in a ToSTNeT-3 buyback Thursday morning 12 August. The rest will be bought on market. Impact is non-negligible. And JPI is cheap cheap cheap.


Japan Post Insurance (7181 JP) - Reading Between The Lines

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Thai Life Insurance  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Thai Life Insurance is looking to raise up to US$1bn in its upcoming Thailand IPO.</li>
<li>Thai Life Insurance is one of the largest life insurance companies in Thailand, third by assets. As of Mar 2022, it had 64,000 insurance agents.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about valuations and undertake a peer comparison versus its international peers.</li>
</ul>


Thai Life Insurance is looking to raise up to US$1bn in its upcoming Thailand IPO.
Thai Life Insurance is one of the largest life insurance companies in Thailand, third by assets. As of Mar 2022, it had 64,000 insurance agents.
In this note, we will talk about valuations and undertake a peer comparison versus its international peers.


Thai Life Insurance Pre-IPO - Thoughts on Valuation and International Peer Comparison

<ul>
<li>The downside to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/woodside-petroleum-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:177:1" rel="noopener">Woodside Petroleum (WPL AU)</a> remains, but the reasoned downside is smaller than it was before.</li>
<li>CVC walks, but it doesn't stop <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/brambles-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:693:1" rel="noopener">Brambles Ltd (BXB AU)</a> privatisation speculation. </li>
<li>If <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tabcorp-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6837:1" rel="noopener">Tabcorp</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/the-lottery-corporation-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35970:1" rel="noopener">The Lottery Corp</a> are seen as low volatility growth properties, then the stability of cashflow puts it into rarified air among "growth bias" which has gotten trashed. </li>
</ul>


The downside to Woodside Petroleum (WPL AU) remains, but the reasoned downside is smaller than it was before.
CVC walks, but it doesn't stop Brambles Ltd (BXB AU) privatisation speculation. 
If Tabcorp and The Lottery Corp are seen as low volatility growth properties, then the stability of cashflow puts it into rarified air among "growth bias" which has gotten trashed. 


Last Week In Event SPACE: Woodside Petroleum, Brambles, Tabcorp, HKBN, Japan

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)</a> and its two main components <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-insurance-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:840:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Insurance (7181 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-bank-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:838:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)</a> reported excellent earnings for the year to March 2022...</li>
<li>....but not so excellent forecasts for the year to March 2023. Some of that is conservative. Some is "finger-in-the-air", and some of it is the vagaries of insurance sales accounting.</li>
<li>But they all pay high dividends and Japan Post Holdings announced a ¥200bn buyback. And remember, there will likely Never Be Another JPH Equity Offering, Ever Again. Ever. </li>
</ul>



Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) and its two main components Japan Post Insurance (7181 JP) and Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) reported excellent earnings for the year to March 2022...
....but not so excellent forecasts for the year to March 2023. Some of that is conservative. Some is "finger-in-the-air", and some of it is the vagaries of insurance sales accounting.
But they all pay high dividends and Japan Post Holdings announced a ¥200bn buyback. And remember, there will likely Never Be Another JPH Equity Offering, Ever Again. Ever. 


Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) - Ugly Group Forecasts But a Very Bigly Buyback

Japan

Japan Post Insurance Co. Ltd. operates life insurance business. The Company offers whole life insurance, education endowment, ordinary endowment, medical insurance, and special endowment insurance. Japan Post Insurance provides services for individuals and businesses throughout Japan.

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Japan Post Insurance (7181 JP)

Last Week in Event SPACE: Softbank, OZ Minerals, Lifestyle, Nexon, Magic Empire, Swire Pacific

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett