Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) reveal that monthly semiconductor revenues for April were 14.6% below those of April 2018.  This painful point was to be expected in what will be a very oversupplied year following a year of high prices.

The World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) reveal that monthly semiconductor revenues for April were 14.6% below those of April 2018.  This painful point was to be expected in what will be a very oversupplied year following a year of high prices.

April Semiconductors Down Again, 14.6% Year/Year

The semiconductor industry is undergoing a collapse, as it does every few years.  Investors who understand why this occurs, and how it hits certain sub-sectors more than others, will have an advantage when making investments in the industry.  This Insight helps readers to understand commodity and non-commodity chips and how to tell one from another.  It first defines commodities, then explains which semiconductors are and are not commodities, listing makers of each type, followed by explanations of the impact of commodity cycles upon the semiconductor market as a whole.  It closes with advice on understanding the market and provides the likely duration of the current cycle.

The semiconductor industry is undergoing a collapse, as it does every few years.  Investors who understand why this occurs, and how it hits certain sub-sectors more than others, will have an advantage when making investments in the industry.  This Insight helps readers to understand commodity and non-commodity chips and how to tell one from another.  It first defines commodities, then explains which semiconductors are and are not commodities, listing makers of each type, followed by explanations of the impact of commodity cycles upon the semiconductor market as a whole.  It closes with advice on understanding the market and provides the likely duration of the current cycle.

Why Commodities Drive the Semiconductor Cycle

On April 1 the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics were released illustrating, as we anticipated, that a full-blown collapse is underway.  This Insight shows how consistently the current situation follows past trends.

On April 1 the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics were released illustrating, as we anticipated, that a full-blown collapse is underway.  This Insight shows how consistently the current situation follows past trends.

Semiconductor Revenues Collapsing, As Anticipated

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Of the ten items highlighted in last week’s Compass that we would like to see in order to turn more bullish, two have happened -- equal-weighted Energy and UK/European Financials are breaking out. This only serves to add to our already positive outlook as U.S. equities are poised to test all-time highs. We are upgrading equal-weight Energy to market weight. Also in today’s report, we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Technology: Large-, Mid-, and Small-Cap Semiconductors.

Of the ten items highlighted in last week’s Compass that we would like to see in order to turn more bullish, two have happened -- equal-weighted Energy and UK/European Financials are breaking out. This only serves to add to our already positive outlook as U.S. equities are poised to test all-time highs. We are upgrading equal-weight Energy to market weight. Also in today’s report, we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Technology: Large-, Mid-, and Small-Cap Semiconductors.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Upgrading Equal-Weight Energy Sector; Semis Are Leading Tech

Relative strength for the PHLX Semiconductor index began a bottoming process in November of 2018. In mid-December. Since then we have expanded our recommendations substantially and upgraded Technology to overweight in late-January. Despite four months of outperformance, we believe the move for semis is just beginning. In today’s report we highlight our favorite technical setups, including: AMAT, MRVL, AMBA, STM, ON, MU, NVDA, SWKS, MCHP, TXN, AVGO, LRCX, NXPI, ASML, TER, MKSI, ICHR, ACLS, and TSEM.

Relative strength for the PHLX Semiconductor index began a bottoming process in November of 2018. In mid-December. Since then we have expanded our recommendations substantially and upgraded Technology to overweight in late-January. Despite four months of outperformance, we believe the move for semis is just beginning. In today’s report we highlight our favorite technical setups, including: AMAT, MRVL, AMBA, STM, ON, MU, NVDA, SWKS, MCHP, TXN, AVGO, LRCX, NXPI, ASML, TER, MKSI, ICHR, ACLS, and TSEM.

Semiconductors Are Breaking Out -- Add Exposure/Overweight

Netherlands

NXP Semiconductors NV operates as a global semiconductor company. The Company designs semiconductors and software for mobile communications, consumer electronics, security applications, in-car entertainment, and networking.  NXP offers its products to the automotive, identification, wireless infrastructure, lighting, mobile, and computing applications.

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Nxp Semiconductors Nv (NXPI US)

April Semiconductors Down Again, 14.6% Year/Year

The World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) reveal that monthly semiconductor revenues for April were 14.6% below those of April 2018. This...

Jim Handy

Why Commodities Drive the Semiconductor Cycle

The semiconductor industry is undergoing a collapse, as it does every few years. Investors who understand why this occurs, and how it hits certain...

Jim Handy

Semiconductor Revenues Collapsing, As Anticipated

On April 1 the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics were released illustrating, as we anticipated, that a full-blown collapse is underway. This...

Jim Handy

U.S. Equity Strategy: Upgrading Equal-Weight Energy Sector; Semis Are Leading Tech

Of the ten items highlighted in last week’s Compass that we would like to see in order to turn more bullish, two have happened -- equal-weighted...

Vermilion Research

Semiconductors Are Breaking Out -- Add Exposure/Overweight

Relative strength for the PHLX Semiconductor index began a bottoming process in November of 2018. In mid-December. Since then we have expanded our...

Vermilion Research

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