Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Back on the 20 December, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vcredit-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27143:1" rel="noopener">VCredit Holdings (2003 HK)</a>, a provider of consumer financial services in China, announced a unconditional MGO from Ma Ting Hung, VCredit's chairman. and concert parties.</li>
<li>The catch? The Offer Price of HK$1.80/share was a 9.09% discount to undisturbed. It will not be increased. </li>
<li>VCredit's Composite Doc is now <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2025/0109/2025010900641.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">out</a>, with the Offer open for tendering, with a 3rd February first close. The IFA says "not fair and not reasonable". Trading 45% through terms.</li>
</ul>


Back on the 20 December, VCredit Holdings (2003 HK), a provider of consumer financial services in China, announced a unconditional MGO from Ma Ting Hung, VCredit's chairman. and concert parties.
The catch? The Offer Price of HK$1.80/share was a 9.09% discount to undisturbed. It will not be increased. 
VCredit's Composite Doc is now out, with the Offer open for tendering, with a 3rd February first close. The IFA says "not fair and not reasonable". Trading 45% through terms.


VCredit (2003 HK): Offer Now Open. IFA Says Not Fair. Not Even Close

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>ADVANC is re-added to the portfolio after its stock price dropped sharply by more than 2.8% yesterday.</li><li>This decline contrasts with the company's strong performance outlook, which includes expected profit growth both QoQ and YoY in 4Q24E, driven by higher service revenue and effective cost control.</li><li>KTX's Tactical Picks portfolio is constructed within SET100 Index constituents.</li></ul>

ADVANC is re-added to the portfolio after its stock price dropped sharply by more than 2.8% yesterday.This decline contrasts with the company's strong performance outlook, which includes expected profit growth both QoQ and YoY in 4Q24E, driven by higher service revenue and effective cost control.KTX's Tactical Picks portfolio is constructed within SET100 Index constituents.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arcadium-lithium-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40438:1" rel="noopener">Arcadium Lithium (LTM AU)</a>'s spread to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13:1" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)</a>'s terms steadily increased subsequent to the US elections, ostensibly over Trump (Musk?) bluster, blowing out to 21% before Xmas.</li>
<li>Overnight, the transaction received the go ahead from CFIUS. Shares popped ~8.2% on the news. The transaction remains subject to investment screening approvals in Australia, Canada and Italy. </li>
<li>Unlike Greenland and the Panama Canal, the takeover of Arcadium should complete "before mid-2025"; possibly this quarter.</li>
</ul>



Arcadium Lithium (LTM AU)'s spread to Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)'s terms steadily increased subsequent to the US elections, ostensibly over Trump (Musk?) bluster, blowing out to 21% before Xmas.
Overnight, the transaction received the go ahead from CFIUS. Shares popped ~8.2% on the news. The transaction remains subject to investment screening approvals in Australia, Canada and Italy. 
Unlike Greenland and the Panama Canal, the takeover of Arcadium should complete "before mid-2025"; possibly this quarter.


Rio Tinto/Arcadium: Home Straight After CFIUS Nod

Greatview Aseptic Packaging / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Following on from the surprise development that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mengniu-dairy-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:354:1" rel="noopener">China Mengniu Dairy (2319 HK)</a> had reduced its stake below 5%, I've had a few readers asking about hypothetical situations regarding its stake.</li>
<li>IF Mengniu is a seller, can't Mengniu simply sell its entire stake to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shandong-xinjufeng-technology-packaging-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36744:1" rel="noopener">Shandong Xinjufeng Technology Packaging (301296 CH)</a> (XJF)? Can Mengniu sell to XJF above the Offer Price?</li>
<li>Both questions are addressed in the Takeovers Code. But only one is permitted.</li>
</ul>


Following on from the surprise development that China Mengniu Dairy (2319 HK) had reduced its stake below 5%, I've had a few readers asking about hypothetical situations regarding its stake.
IF Mengniu is a seller, can't Mengniu simply sell its entire stake to Shandong Xinjufeng Technology Packaging (301296 CH) (XJF)? Can Mengniu sell to XJF above the Offer Price?
Both questions are addressed in the Takeovers Code. But only one is permitted.


GAPack (468 HK): Additional Thoughts On Mengniu Selling

Ping An Healthcare and Technology / Event-Driven

Ping An Healthcare and Technology (1833 HK)

<ul>
<li>Back on the 14th November, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-healthcare-and-technology-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27008:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Healthcare and Technology (1833 HK)</a> (PA Gooddoctor announced a change in use of proceeds, including the payment of a punchy HK$9.70/share special dividend.</li>
<li>A scrip option was concurrently afforded. The results of that scrip election have now been <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2025/0107/2025010701638.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a>, the completion of which, triggers an unconditional MGO from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-insurance-group-co-of-c2975d60-47cd-4246-a7a6-25297586242b" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24682:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Insurance  (601318 CH)</a>.</li>
<li>The MGO price is HK$6.12/share, a price made public last month. For those investors trading the event and who bought PA Gooddoctor cum dividend, it has worked out well.</li>
</ul>


Back on the 14th November, Ping An Healthcare and Technology (1833 HK) (PA Gooddoctor announced a change in use of proceeds, including the payment of a punchy HK$9.70/share special dividend.
A scrip option was concurrently afforded. The results of that scrip election have now been announced, the completion of which, triggers an unconditional MGO from Ping An Insurance  (601318 CH).
The MGO price is HK$6.12/share, a price made public last month. For those investors trading the event and who bought PA Gooddoctor cum dividend, it has worked out well.


PA Gooddoctor (1833 HK)'s Unconditional MGO

Thailand

Advanced Info Service is Thailand's largest telecommunications and technology company, providing mobile phone services, including prepaid, postpaid, and 5G network services, along with mobile devices. The company also offers high-speed home broadband services under the AIS Fibre and 3BB brands, as well as digital services such as cloud solutions, IoT, digital payments, and enterprise solutions. Headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand, the company was founded in 1986.

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Advanced Info Service (ADVANC-R TB)

VCredit (2003 HK): Offer Now Open. IFA Says Not Fair. Not Even Close

Unless you have some strong opinion on the back-end - I don't - this is an avoid. No one will tender into this Offer. Nothng to see here.

David Blennerhassett

KTX Tactical Picks

ADVANC is re-added to the portfolio after its stock price dropped sharply by more than 2.8% yesterday. This decline contrasts with the company's...

Krungthai XSpring

Rio Tinto/Arcadium: Home Straight After CFIUS Nod

The key reg approvals have been satisfied. Any pullback on Trump blustering is a buy. Trading at a ~3.2% gross return for the Aussie line. That's...

David Blennerhassett

GAPack (468 HK): Additional Thoughts On Mengniu Selling

China Mengniu can simply sell its entire stake to XJF; but not above the Offer Price. So what's stopping Mengniu if they appear to be selling down?

David Blennerhassett

PA Gooddoctor (1833 HK)'s Unconditional MGO

If in for the arb and opting for scrip, I 'd have exited, or exiting my initial buy-in. If in for the arb and took cash, I'd also would have...

David Blennerhassett

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