Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Nvidia–OpenAI tie-up: A US$100bn LOI to deploy 10 GW of GPUs by 2026 highlights the unprecedented scale of AI compute build-out, anchored in Asia’s memory, packaging, substrate, and testing ecosystem.</li>
<li>SK hynix (HBM leader, backlog sold out to 2027), TSMC (CoWoS packaging), Ibiden/Ajinomoto (substrates), and Advantest/TEL/Disco (test/tools) are positioned as key winners.</li>
<li>While the deal confirms multi-year order visibility, much of the “good news” may be priced in — execution of capacity ramps and sustained demand will determine further upside.</li>
</ul>


Nvidia–OpenAI tie-up: A US$100bn LOI to deploy 10 GW of GPUs by 2026 highlights the unprecedented scale of AI compute build-out, anchored in Asia’s memory, packaging, substrate, and testing ecosystem.
SK hynix (HBM leader, backlog sold out to 2027), TSMC (CoWoS packaging), Ibiden/Ajinomoto (substrates), and Advantest/TEL/Disco (test/tools) are positioned as key winners.
While the deal confirms multi-year order visibility, much of the “good news” may be priced in — execution of capacity ramps and sustained demand will determine further upside.


Nvidia–OpenAI US$100bn Partnership: Asia Hardware Supply Chain Implications

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

<ul>
<li>Japanese equities delivered exceptional performance this week, with the Nikkei 225 surging 4.1% to fresh record highs </li>
<li>Expect the BoJ to maintain the 0.5% policy rate Friday, with October remaining the earliest viable hike window</li>
<li>Geopolitical tensions remain elevated with Polish airspace incidents and Middle East complexities creating volatility catalysts; We remain +ve on JP equities given attractive valuations and Fed tailwinds</li>
</ul>


Japanese equities delivered exceptional performance this week, with the Nikkei 225 surging 4.1% to fresh record highs 
Expect the BoJ to maintain the 0.5% policy rate Friday, with October remaining the earliest viable hike window
Geopolitical tensions remain elevated with Polish airspace incidents and Middle East complexities creating volatility catalysts; We remain +ve on JP equities given attractive valuations and Fed tailwinds


Japan Strategy Weekly | Nikkei Surges to Record High

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

<ul>
<li>Apple reveal not enough to send the stock higher, although its new IPhone Pro and ear pods with built in heart rate monitoring impress.</li>
<li>Alphabet sends the Mag7 to a record high with its cloud computing order backlog bigger than expected.</li>
<li>Wolfspeed +48% as it gets set to emerge from bankruptcy, although this should be no surprise. Positive Renesas</li>
</ul>


Apple reveal not enough to send the stock higher, although its new IPhone Pro and ear pods with built in heart rate monitoring impress.
Alphabet sends the Mag7 to a record high with its cloud computing order backlog bigger than expected.
Wolfspeed +48% as it gets set to emerge from bankruptcy, although this should be no surprise. Positive Renesas


Japan Morning Connection: Oracle Blows the Doors off as the AI Train Shows No Sign of a Slowdown

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Every year (actually, every half year) it is a similar trade. There is a fiscal year-end dividend reinvestment trade for passive funds in Japan. </li>
<li>The month-end and quarter-end bring big flows, or not, depending on how things have gone.</li>
<li>Over the past 10-15 years or so, the two-day return on the March trade is pretty good. This year? It's complicated. </li>
</ul>


Every year (actually, every half year) it is a similar trade. There is a fiscal year-end dividend reinvestment trade for passive funds in Japan. 
The month-end and quarter-end bring big flows, or not, depending on how things have gone.
Over the past 10-15 years or so, the two-day return on the March trade is pretty good. This year? It's complicated. 


The Japan March-End Rebal and Dividend Trade (2026 Version)

<ul>
<li>Power-Semi's leading the charge higher on positive broker comments for the sector while AI related takes a backseat.</li>
<li>Intel continues to move up with CEO Tan set to submit proposals to Trump next week which will certainly point to close alignment.</li>
<li>CPI data points to Sep rate cut which helped Homebuilders and airlines were up on Spirit woes.</li>
</ul>


Power-Semi's leading the charge higher on positive broker comments for the sector while AI related takes a backseat.
Intel continues to move up with CEO Tan set to submit proposals to Trump next week which will certainly point to close alignment.
CPI data points to Sep rate cut which helped Homebuilders and airlines were up on Spirit woes.


Japan Morning Connection: Market Ignoring Chinese Pullback from NVDA's H20 with Tech Surge Higher

Japan

ADVANTEST CORPORATION produces semiconductor testing devices and electronic measuring instruments.  The Company's products include large-scale integration (LSI) test systems, memory test systems, dynamic test handlers, network analyzers, electronic meters, optical testing devices, and signal sources.

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Advantest Corp (6857 JP)

Nvidia–OpenAI US$100bn Partnership: Asia Hardware Supply Chain Implications

Nvidia's $100bn LOI with OpenAI for 10 GW of GPUs by 2026 highlights the massive AI compute build-out in Asia, benefiting key players like SK...

Rahul Jain

Japan Strategy Weekly | Nikkei Surges to Record High

Japanese equities surged to record highs this week, with the BoJ expected to maintain policy rate and geopolitical tensions adding volatility;...

Mark Chadwick

Japan Morning Connection: Oracle Blows the Doors off as the AI Train Shows No Sign of a Slowdown

Apple and its suppliers pulled lower. Laggards in the SPE space should get a lift after Oracle's big jump in late trading. A pullback in...

Andrew Jackson

The Japan March-End Rebal and Dividend Trade (2026 Version)

Every year, twice a year, a large number of companies pay dividends. That event is coming up again Monday. ETFs will have to buy the dividend...

Travis Lundy

Japan Morning Connection: Market Ignoring Chinese Pullback from NVDA's H20 with Tech Surge Higher

Power semis higher on positive broker comments, Intel continues to benefit from CEO in the limelight, moves higher for airlines and homebuilders.

Andrew Jackson

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Nvidia–OpenAI US$100bn Partnership: Asia Hardware Supply Chain Implications

​Nvidia's $100bn LOI with OpenAI for 10 GW of GPUs by 2026 highlights the massive AI compute build-out in Asia, benefiting key players like SK...

Rahul Jain

Japan Strategy Weekly | Nikkei Surges to Record High

​Japanese equities surged to record highs this week, with the BoJ expected to maintain policy rate and geopolitical tensions adding volatility;...

Mark Chadwick

Japan Morning Connection: Oracle Blows the Doors off as the AI Train Shows No Sign of a Slowdown

Apple and its suppliers pulled lower. Laggards in the SPE space should get a lift after Oracle's big jump in late trading. A pullback in...

Andrew Jackson

The Japan March-End Rebal and Dividend Trade (2026 Version)

Every year, twice a year, a large number of companies pay dividends. That event is coming up again Monday. ETFs will have to buy the dividend...

Travis Lundy

Japan Morning Connection: Market Ignoring Chinese Pullback from NVDA's H20 with Tech Surge Higher

Power semis higher on positive broker comments, Intel continues to benefit from CEO in the limelight, moves higher for airlines and homebuilders.

Andrew Jackson

Nvidia's $100bn LOI with OpenAI for 10 GW of GPUs by 2026 highlights the massive AI compute build-out in Asia, benefiting key players like SK...

Japanese equities surged to record highs this week, with the BoJ expected to maintain policy rate and geopolitical tensions adding volatility;...